Noble Group

[Musicwhiz]

Business Times - 07 Feb 2012

Noble names former Goldman Asia chief Yusuf Alireza as CEO

(SINGAPORE) Singapore-listed commodities firm Noble Group Ltd named a former Goldman Sachs top Asian banker as its chief executive officer as it seeks to ease worries over a spate of senior-level departures.

Yusuf Alireza will take charge as the CEO with effect from April 16, while founder Richard Elman will step down as acting CEO, but remain chairman, Noble said in a statement yesterday.

Mr Alireza was the former co-president of Asia, excluding Japan, for Goldman Sachs.

'This is a step in the right direction. This helps to quell concerns over succession planning,' said CIMB analyst Lee Wen Ching, who has an 'underperform' rating on the stock.

Shares in Noble, one of Asia's largest-listed commodities traders, plunged by as much as 28 per cent on Nov 10 after it reported its first quarterly loss in more than a decade and its CEO Ricardo Leiman resigned in an unexpected move.

Mr Leiman's resignation marked the second time Noble had changed its CEO in two years and came after the departure of two senior executives, previous executive chairman Toby Brown and long-time chief financial officer Stephen J Marzo.

Noble counts the sovereign wealth funds of China and South Korea among its shareholders.

'These appointments are part of Noble's succession planning, and further strengthen our leadership as I prepare to reduce my day-to-day involvement,' Mr Elman said in the statement.

Noble said in October it was planning to list its agriculture business, which accounts for a third of its earnings and could be valued at more than US$5 billion, on the Singapore Exchange. However, the deal, advised by JPMorgan, stalled following the report of its third-quarter loss.

With a new CEO on board, the listing of Noble's agriculture business is likely to happen in the first half of the year, said a source familiar with the deal.

Noble's shares have gained about 28 per cent so far this year, buoyed by expectations of a rebound in earnings and a firm broader market.

Shares in smaller rival Olam International Ltd surged by 24 per cent in the same period.

Yesterday, Noble rose as much as 5.4 per cent before closing at $1.44, up 3.2 per cent.

The company will report quarterly results over the next few weeks. -- Reuters

[greypiggi]

anyone picking up on this? I just entered 20 lots at 1.22. I think should be a good long term play?

Noble has risen with overall market on appointment of CEO and also some upgrades. I have 40 lots at avg price of 1.18. Thinking of letting go soon...

Anyone in Noble too?

[egghead]

Why won't you wait for the next catalyst ?

[greypiggi]

i try to exit when i made 30% unless i really feel confident about the company or it is a small bet. So I may sell half and keep the rest i guess.. see how market turns out.

[egghead]

I suppose you have a neat profit within a relatively short time so it is good to take profit off the table. Also it depends on your reason for buying Noble - whether for short term or long term. I have fallen prey to my own greed before waiting for ever higher price when I entered a position (not refering to Noble) only as a short term punt.

[karlmarx]

noble looks (to me) ripe for the plucking.

[corydorus]

Top Banker. He must be really expensive to hire ?

[Musicwhiz]

Business Times - 21 Feb 2012

Noble seen returning to profits; path ahead rocky

Brokers take neutral stance, say worst is over for commodity trader

By KENNETH LIM

NOBLE Group is widely expected to return to profitability when it reports its fourth-quarter results next week, but analysts remain cautious about the industry's near-term outlook.

'We believe that Noble has survived the worst of the downturn,' wrote CIMB analyst Lee Wen Ching in a note on Monday.

She raised her recommendation on the stock to 'neutral' from 'underperform', with a Q4 net profit estimate of US$82.6 million. This compares with consensus of around US$98 million.

'Our upgrade is premised on improving leading economic indicators, which suggest that global economies have averted a recession. Having said that, indicators are not entirely rosy either, leading us to believe that the road to recovery could be a sluggish one,' Ms Lee wrote.

Hong Kong-based Noble, a commodity trading company that is listed in Singapore, will report its fourth-quarter and full-year results on Feb 28.

The company announced a surprising Q3 loss for the three months ended Sept 30, 2011, amid extremely volatile markets. Ricardo Leiman quit as chief executive following that loss, and Noble this month named former Goldman Sachs banker Yusuf Alireza as the new chief.

In a Feb 15 note, Goldman Sachs analysts Patrick Tiah, Nikhil Bhandari and Tan Hong Li downgraded their recommendation on Noble to 'neutral' from 'buy', saying that 'the market has factored in a 4Q11 earnings rebound ... and the appointment of Yusuf Alireza as its new CEO'.

The Goldman team, which raised its 12-month stock price target to $1.60 from $1.55, reckoned that while Noble will continue to display robust volume growth, difficult trading conditions in 2012 may pressure margins.

'For example, soybean crush margins may be under pressure from negative margins in China and crop losses in Argentina,' the Goldman analysts wrote. 'Thermal coal demand remains weak and prices have been weakening.'

Noble's stock closed at $1.505 yesterday, up 1 per cent or 1.5 cents.

Investors will also be looking to Noble's results to compare with those of its smaller Singapore-listed rival, Olam International, which recently reported a drop in Q2 profit.

Brokers are split on which stock offers better value at this time.

CIMB's Ms Lee is 'neutral' on Noble but rates Olam 'outperform'.

JPMorgan analyst Ajay Mirchandani wrote in a note on Feb 19 that Noble Group looked more attractive given the broker's expectation of a positive surprise in the Q4 results and cheaper valuations.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst Jeffrey Ng, in a Feb 10 report, also came down on the side of Noble, saying that Noble had retained more profits for every dollar raised than Olam.

Noble also faces less execution risk because it is not as aggressively pursuing mergers and acquisitions as a growth model, Mr Ng wrote.

'We think Noble offers less risk and higher return,' Mr Ng wrote.

[Musicwhiz]

The Straits Times
Feb 29, 2012
Noble back in the black, but Q4 profits down 57%

By Jonathan Kwok

COMMODITIES trader Noble Group returned to the black in the fourth quarter, although profits were 57 per cent lower than in the same period a year earlier.

Earnings for the three months ended Dec 31 were US$105.7 million (S$133.2 million), from US$247.5 million in the same period a year ago. This came as margins fell at the firm's agricultural and metals, minerals and ores segments. Revenue increased 15 per cent to US$20.13 billion.

Noble at least returned to profitability after shocking the market with a US$17.5 million third-quarter loss - its first time in the red in 14 years.

'Overall trading environment proved challenging during the year,' said Noble in a statement yesterday.

Fourth-quarter revenue from its agricultural segment rose compared with that a year ago, but operating income margins fell more than 8 percentage points to 2.78 per cent.

That meant operating income from its agricultural supply chain operations fell 68 per cent to US$113.9 million. Its agricultural segment includes its businesses in sugar, grains and oilseeds, coffee and cotton.

Similarly, revenue from the metals, minerals and ores segment rose, but operating income fell due to lower margins.

These were partially mitigated by the energy segment, which had higher revenue and operating income, as margins inched upwards.

Full-year net profit fell 29 per cent to US$431.3 million, although revenue rose 42 per cent to US$80.73 billion.

Like in the fourth quarter, the agricultural and metals, minerals and ores segments over the full year recorded lower margins, which reduced their operating incomes.

This was mitigated by the higher operating income from the energy segment, which was boosted by the growing energy coal and carbon complex, and oil, gas and power divisions.

'2011 was a year that presented our industry with a host of challenges and which Noble navigated pretty well,' said its founder and acting chief executive Richard Elman.

'Our agricultural and energy businesses continued to show underlying growth, while our balance sheet has never been stronger.

'Despite these challenges, Noble's book value per share again rose, having now compounded at over 30 per cent per annum for the last decade.'

Earnings per share for the year were 6.81 US cents, from 10.11 US cents in 2010. Net asset value per share was 71 US cents as of Dec 31, from 66 US cents a year earlier. Noble proposed a dividend of 1.65 US cents per share. It paid out 2.5 US cents per share for the 2010 financial year.

Before the results announcement, its shares rose half a cent to $1.375.

Earlier this month, Noble eased worries over succession planning by naming former Goldman Sachs banker Yusuf Alireza as chief executive with effect from April 16.

Mr Elman, who will continue as chairman, took over as chief executive temporarily after the resignation of Mr Ricardo Leiman, which was announced around the time of the firm's third-quarter loss. Noble had said the resignation was not due to the loss.

[freedom]

the board of Yanzhou Coal has approved the merger.

the split between Yanzhou Coal and Gloucester Coal shareholders is adjusted to 78:22 instead of 77:23 as announced by Yanzhou Coal tonight.