Noble Group

[CY09]

As of Q3's report, Noble still has 1.25 billion in net fair value gain from its derivatives. At the start of this FY, Noble had 3.78 bil in fair value gains and 1 bil in net fair value losses; giving it a net fair value gain of 2.7 billion. Subsequently, Noble wrote down an impairment of 1.25 bil to 1.3bil on this line of the balance sheet and has about 1.25 net fair value gain on its balance sheet. This is a worrying sign. It signals the possibility that only 10-15% of Noble's fair value derivatives may be "real"/relizable.

If this is indeed true, this means Noble still has about 1 billion to write down. Should that happen, this means the current equity of 1 billion will be wiped out (including the US$400 mil equity which belongs to perpetual holders). From Noble's unwinding, my stand in the 1H2017 has now changed to that ordinary shareholders of Noble are holding worthless paper certificate.

The predicament at Noble seems not to be in favorable terms now. Noble too has been cutting headcount and their company is down to 400 employees currently.

[realanalyst]

Noble is not a 1 billion usd equity company. Market says it's 180M USD, maybe it's worth less.
Issues on Noble Group have been daily suppressed by these people.

[cyclone]

Noble Faces Key Deadlines as Default Threat Looms

By Denise Wee
December 7, 2017, 3:58 PM GMT+8 Updated on December 7, 2017, 5:40 PM GMT+8

Noble Group Ltd., the embattled commodities trader, faces several significant deadlines as it wrestles with a $3.5 billion debt restructuring.

Once Asia’s largest commodity trader, Noble’s decline since 2015 has been marked by losses, concern it won’t be able to pay its debt and accusations from long-time foe Iceberg Research that it inflated the value of some contracts. The next few weeks will be crucial, as Noble looks to push its debt restructuring through.

One focus is Dec. 20. Lenders had agreed to waive certain rights under terms Noble committed to for its $1.1 billion revolving credit facility until that day. That means the company may need to reach a deal with creditors by then to avoid a default, or seek another extension.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...lt-lingers

[cyclone]

Chinese Conglomerate Interested in Buying Noble Group

Bloomberg News
January 22, 2018, 1:10 PM GMT+8 Updated on January 22, 2018, 2:10 PM GMT+8

Cedar Holdings Group, a Chinese conglomerate, has expressed interest in buying control of commodities trader Noble Group, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Cedar has made an informal approach to some major Noble Group shareholders, although no formal talks have started, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is confidential. Noble shares surged as much as 37 percent to 28 Singapore cents, the highest since December, before trading at 27 cents at 1:24 p.m., prompting a query from Singapore Exchange Ltd.

A Cedar Holdings representative declined to comment; an external spokeswoman for Noble Group couldn’t immediately comment.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...p-purchase

[CY09]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Restruct...eID=486851

Noble's restructuring is a bit confusing and difficult to digest. All I can see so far is that the new bonds have very high interest and Noble is hoping they can offer them a lifeline for next 4 years without the pain of having to constantly rollover their debts. I pity those who had bought the perpetual securities as they have been forced to take a haircut from a principal amount to $400mil to only $15 mil (96% haircut) .

Existing shareholders can be expected to be diluted until they only 10% of the current assets. Do correct me if my interpretation is wrong.

[yeokiwi]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Restruct...eID=486851

Noble's restructuring is a bit confusing and difficult to digest. All I can see so far is that the new bonds have very high interest and Noble is hoping they can offer them a lifeline for next 4 years without the pain of having to constantly rollover their debts. I pity those who had bought the perpetual securities as they have been forced to take a haircut from a principal amount to $400mil to only $15 mil (96% haircut) .

Existing shareholders can be expected to be diluted until they only 10% of the current assets. Do correct me if my interpretation is wrong.

Will the shareholders and the rest of the creditors agree?
And, how come the share price is still maintained at 24cts?

[cfa]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Restruct...eID=486851

Noble's restructuring is a bit confusing and difficult to digest. All I can see so far is that the new bonds  have very high interest and Noble is hoping they can offer them a lifeline for next 4 years without the pain of having to constantly rollover their debts. I pity those who had bought the perpetual securities as they have been forced to take a haircut from a principal amount to $400mil to only $15 mil (96% haircut) .

Existing shareholders can be expected to be diluted until they only 10% of the current assets. Do correct me if my interpretation is wrong.

Will the shareholders and the rest of the creditors agree?
And, how come the share price is still maintained at 24cts?

Believe the major shareholders should have agreed and it is almost a done deal .

[BlueKelah]

How to not agree, it's either this or lose everything. Something is still better than nothing...

Lucky market has been doing well this past half year, if markets were crashing I doubt anyone would want to pick up the pieces.
Sent from my ZTE A2017G using Tapatalk

[Big Toe]

It's exactly like the commentary on the election in taiwan some years ago.
Now, you have the choice between 2 rotten apples.
You need to pick the less rotten one.

[weijian]

The script follows that of MPM i suppose - the folks who provide the lifeline (trade financing or new capital) gets the lion share (or sweet deal with downside capped), while Mgt gets rewarded with status quo if this worls out.

as for opmi and other shareholders, it is both heads n tails u lose.