Noble Group

[MINX]

Former Noble CEO Alireza sues founder Elman for $80 million

By:
Bloomberg
14/06/17, 03:08 pm
(June 14): The former chief executive officer of Noble Group has filed a lawsuit against founder Richard Elman claiming that he’s owed stock in the embattled commodity trader.

Yusuf Alireza, who left the company in May 2016, filed his suit against Elman in the High Court of Hong Kong alleging breaches of contract, according to a writ of summons. Alireza is seeking at least HK$450 million ($80 million) in shares.

Elman, who stepped down as chairman of the company in May, declined to comment. Alireza couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com.sg/managem...80-million

When you're down & out, even your dog want to bite you...

[cyclone]

Noble creditors agree to debt lifeline - source

Reuters
Fri Jun 16, 2017 | 7:02am EDT

Creditors of commodity trader Noble Group Ltd have agreed to push back a key repayment deadline by four months, a source familiar with the matter said on Friday, providing a lifeline for the embattled group.

The Singapore-listed company, battered by concerns over its financial strength in recent weeks, has been in negotiations with banks over a $2-billion credit facility, secured on its inventories and working capital. The facility is due to be rolled over by the end of next week.

The expiry of the credit line has been extended until October. In exchange, creditors have asked Noble to find a strategic investor, the person said, declining to be named because the information is not public yet.

More details in http://www.reuters.com/article/noble-cre...SL3N1JD3EI

[corydorus]

Kicking the Can down the road ? Nothing much to lose for the creditor anyway.


.

[realanalyst]

The negative significance of Noble (來寶集團) Mark-to-Markets Gains on Derivatives and Commodity Contracts
https://noblegroupresearch.wordpress.com...contracts/

"When Noble announced a first-quarter loss of $130m— it blamed largely on ill-judged coal trades—and warned that it might not return to profitability until 2019.
Can you better put in context the warning that it might not return to profitability until... These "hedging loss" are rather because of a mismatch between the level of profits booked on these contracts and their underlying expected cash-flows.

In order to produce $3.4B of MtM gains, Noble would have to buy not 2,000,000 MT of coal , as in this example, but book nearly 958 million metric tons – the equivalent of 6937 Capezize cargoes Richards Bay-Qingdao, China or 5 voyages per week for the next 13 years…

This represents a considerable tonnage even for the largest firms of the industry (Cargill, Rio Tinto, BHP, Vale, Anglo American) all put together and more than 1.21 year of world coal production.

[realanalyst]

Reuters  sayings.
The same media pumped and dumped a rumor on Sinochem.
Sinochem never hear they were a potential investor in Noble.

[chialc88]

From my trading record, I first vested in Noble in early 2015 at about $1 (brought twice - 2 days apart).

Mid 2016, I double up at about 10 cents (single scoop).

With the 10-to-1 consolidation, it definitely shows that double down is not a wise move
.... macam like catching a falling knife. 

---

2015 and 1H2016 really felt like winter.

Subsequent 12 month feels like spring and summer holiday in Europe.

Who will know that dark cloud could possibly gather so fast in such a short time?

Who could have guess so?

Any way, enjoy a great Father's day...

[weijian]

From my trading record, I first vested in Noble in early 2015 at about $1 (brought twice - 2 days apart).

Mid 2016, I double up at about 10 cents (single scoop).

With the 10-to-1 consolidation, it definitely shows that double down is not a wise move
.... macam like catching a falling knife. 

Reminds me of a John Hempton's blog post that i shared 6 months ago. Since i remembered, might be good to share it again.

VB post: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-6593...#pid135641

[cyclone]

Indebted Noble confirms bank loan relief, but skips coupon payment

By Aradhana Aravindan
Tue Jun 20, 2017 | 12:10am EDT

Noble Group Ltd (NOBG.SI) on Tuesday confirmed it had extended a key debt deadline and was in "constructive" talks with potential investors, but the crisis-hit trader also pushed back payment of the coupon on a closely watched bond.

The decision to defer payment of the coupon on its $400 million perpetual securities, due June 26, worried investors, who said the failure to pay $12 million sent a negative signal and suggested lenders may have asked the group to defer payment where possible. Shares slipped after a sharp rise on Monday.

"While non payment of the perpetual bond coupon will not trigger a default event, it is a further hit to the company's reputation. This is hurting investor confidence," said one Hong Kong-based analyst, who declined to be named.

More details in https://www.reuters.com/article/us-noble...SKBN19B00X

[realanalyst]

News from the circus:

DBS suspends coverage of Noble Group " “We have suspended our coverage on Noble given the difficulty in quantifying the impact, if any from the recent downgrade in credit rating by S&P and Moody’s,” said analyst Mervin Song.He also expressed reservations about the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of Noble’s strategic review as well as the risk that financial losses will continue

Behind the Scenes

From several journalistic sources.

Noble has intimidated the medias, the Media then become afraid to publish negative things about Noble-the same way it has bullied banks, analysts credit ratings and others.

Behind the Scenes

Bloomberg New’s top guy (based in NY) had a meeting with Noble after they complained.
They did the same with the highly respected FT.
And with Platts in London, UK.

The strategy was highly risky and has shown the obvious character flaws of the organization.
It has backfired on them. Some took it very badly.



Noble Group has lost the real war

They have focused on an image campaign rather than the “bread and butter” that matters for suppliers, investors and credit agencies.

They have lost nearly $3.5B in FCFs since 2 years and half doing absolutely everything wrong from a financial, human resources & trading point of view.




From Energy Market Price Reporting Source

I had an argument with the head trading desk of Mercuria in London (an ex U.S Marine) because I took in consideration a deal of Noble on North Sea Crude oil. He first set fire to me and questioning the reasons on why I had taken into account a deal with a trader "very suspicious" and non recommendable such Noble... "default is a real possibility"..

and guess what ? One or two hours later, the same gentleman of Mercuria concluded a deal with Noble in the Window.

"A bit cynical, all those traders aren't they"

The market has been revealed that Noble owed $58M to its ex-CEO.

Additionally, the compensation liability of some Noble Traders (100-150M$ of phantom shares, cash or a combination of both) poses some issues. but could expire worthless as the company will go under.

The delicate question is how the 2 or 3 traders will monetize their bonus ? told they stayed because had no choice, if quit and could lose.

Window salad Dressing

"They had to cover the Oil liquids aka the cash cow (on what they borrow trade loans), on Dec 31th 2016, the coal and gas PnL is up by about 500M with no reason, simultaneously the MTM on Commodity Contract is up by 500M".

Negative CFO -900M for Q4 tells a different story than their P\L that we can only tell.

[realanalyst]

Noble Group attracts Goldilocks as major shareholder as bears prowl
http://www.straitstimes.com/business/nob...ears-prowl

How major ?
Goldilocks stake is worth S$30 million... $20M

Are they treated on the same foot as a strategic investor with $2B ?
"Major Shareholder"

They were long shareholders of Noble (1.4% stakeholder) at more than 220 (22 prior the 10:1 stock split)
to me they have rather averaging down.