Noble Group

[CityFarmer]

Franklin Templeton Institutional, a SSH, acquired 8 million shares, with stake increased from 5.97% to 6.03%

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/_Form%20...eID=423089

wonder why do FTI do that... ??

they expecting the chinese bankers to bail out noble? :O

The "wonder" might be indicating that, your thought has gone astray? 

(vested)

[brattzz]

Franklin Templeton Institutional, a SSH, acquired 8 million shares, with stake increased from 5.97% to 6.03%

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/_Form%20...eID=423089

wonder why do FTI do that... ??

they expecting the chinese bankers to bail out noble? :O

The "wonder" might be indicating that, your thought has gone astray? 

(vested)

lolz!

sort of, cos i will never buy noble, scratching my head why FTI willing to pump in more money?
they intend to /can turn noble around?

stay out of it mah, 

[crabcrab]

Noble ($0.178) - The great short covering has begun...

[corydorus]

What will happen once short covered ? The business fundamental is weak. This can be observed that Noble has been on long term trend down. Any position is risky.

[CityFarmer]

The next catalysts are

- a much improved balance sheet in 3Q report, after the "restructuring" of working capitals and assets, on top of the right issue proceeds.
- a disposal of NAES with good price, by end of the 2016(?)

The shorting position, is a gauge of Mr. Market's "emotion". Useful, but supplementary. Mr. Market's "emotion" should be eased off, by the improving balance sheet i.e. the liquidity of the company.

Liquidity (thus the credit rating) is an important biz fundamental of the company. The "slimmed" revenue might go back to 2008/9 level, still size-able as global player, and profitable. I have seen "straightforward plan and actions" leading to that, with reasonable time table.

Mr. Market is forward looking guy, and love certainty. The future is getting brighter, and more certain over time, isn't it?  

(vested)

[CY09]

As mentioned previously; as of 31st March 2016, Noble's current assets consist of fair value derivatives which has maturity of beyond 4 years (1,339mil) and before 4 years (1,839 mil). We can safely concur Noble holds such derivatives until they mature. Interestingly, all of Noble's 6 bil of debts mature by 2020. It is worth noting then Noble had maturing debts of 2.5 bil in 2016 and 0.7 bil in 2017. Based on other components of the balance sheet, Noble is likely to experience a cash flow problem.

Fast forward to this week's announcement, Noble has declared that it has refinanced/paid all its debts due in 2016. In addition, from its recent presentation, debts due in 2017 has risen from 0.7 bil (as of 31 march) to 2.0 bil (as of 3 June). Noble intends to repay these 2 bil debts in 2017 through the sale of Noble America and proceeds of the 500 mil rights.

From these facts, it shows Noble has ensured its survival until 2017 by negotiating with banks to roll over debts for 1 more year. Given that Noble still has 2.8 bil more debts to clear by 2020 and that it has 1.8 bil of derivatives cash flow+1.3 bil in cash, it seems Noble may be able to survive if it is able to raise approx 1 to 1.5 bil for its impending sale.

<Interested in Noble if the price is right>

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20An...eID=424147

Noble has agreed to sell its energy biz in North America for 1.05 bil. With that, Noble should be able to survive until 2019.

The sale proceeds is at the low range of my expectation and from that it is likely Noble will have to rely on its banker's goodwill to roll over 2020 debts if the commodities downturn does not improve by then

[BlueKelah]

With this sale Noble is barely surviving. all we need is another crisis and Noble will be wiped out. If 2017 debt can suddenly from 0.7 b become 2b, god knows how accurate their accounting is.


Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

[CY09]

the rise in ST debt was due to bank's agreeing to extend the maturity of their loans (aka rollover). This was to allow Noble time to raise money to repay them.

The problem now is that many industries are in overcapacity, by law of nature, companies are suppose to die, especially the ones which have binged on low interest debts due to cheap liquidity; however banks are so "willing" to help these companies (DBS-Swiber, DBS-Rickmers) to protect their principal. These companies are technically insolvent but banks are just rolling over their debts and not seeking to deleverage them. These countries' national banks are assuming the role of "God" by deciding who lives and dies (case study: Korea Development Bank - Hanjin Shipping).

So the end game is how long can these "Bank Gods" use their power to protect their worshipers of debt

[BlueKelah]

the rise in ST debt was due to bank's agreeing to extend the maturity of their loans (aka rollover). This was to allow Noble time to raise money to repay them.

The problem now is that many industries are in overcapacity, by law of nature, companies are suppose to die, especially the ones which have binged on low interest debts due to cheap liquidity; however banks are so "willing" to help these companies (DBS-Swiber, DBS-Rickmers) to protect their principal. These companies are technically insolvent but banks are just rolling over their debts and not seeking to deleverage them. These countries' national banks are assuming the role of "God" by deciding who lives and dies (case study: Korea Development Bank - Hanjin Shipping).

So the end game is how long can these "Bank Gods" use their power to protect their worshipers of debt

Yup that's exactly what's happening. All the central banks and banks are refusing to deleverage. 

But there should come a time of reckoning, that is likely when interest rates do start rising quickly or when somehow another big financial crisis comes about. 

Noble is like a time bomb waiting to wipe out your investment. But of course most punters love it.

[CityFarmer]

As mentioned previously; as of 31st March 2016,  Noble's current assets consist of fair value derivatives which has maturity of beyond 4 years (1,339mil) and before 4 years (1,839 mil). We can safely concur Noble holds such derivatives until they mature. Interestingly, all of Noble's 6 bil of debts mature by 2020. It is worth noting then Noble had maturing debts of 2.5 bil in 2016 and 0.7 bil in 2017. Based on other components of the balance sheet, Noble is likely to experience a cash flow problem.

Fast forward to this week's announcement, Noble has declared that it has refinanced/paid all its debts due in 2016. In addition, from its recent presentation, debts due in 2017 has risen from 0.7 bil (as of 31 march) to 2.0 bil (as of 3 June). Noble intends to repay these 2 bil debts in 2017 through the sale of Noble America and proceeds of the 500 mil rights.

From these facts, it shows Noble has ensured its survival until 2017 by negotiating with banks to roll over debts for 1 more year. Given that Noble still has 2.8 bil more debts to clear by 2020 and that it has 1.8 bil of derivatives cash flow+1.3 bil in cash, it seems Noble may be able to survive if it is able to raise approx 1 to 1.5 bil for its impending sale.

<Interested in Noble if the price is right>

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20An...eID=424147

Noble has agreed to sell its energy biz in North America for 1.05 bil. With that, Noble should be able to survive until 2019.

The sale proceeds is at the low range of my expectation and from that it is likely Noble will have to rely on its banker's goodwill to roll over 2020 debts if the commodities downturn does not improve by then

I agreed with most of your assessments previously, but we need to review regular together with the changes. The disposed asset, together with the recent right issue proceed, will make a diff in both assets' and liabilities's liquidity. The on-going working cap restructuring, is changing the capital structure liquidity too.

In other words, the previous figures might not valid anymore, IMO

(sharing an opinion. Vested, loves it, but not a punter)