Noble Group

[brattzz]

too difficult to understand, so skip it!

[cyclone]

1 February 2016.
Noble Group Limited is pleased to announce that in accordance with the terms of the RMB1 billion 4.0% Medium Term Notes and the RM300 million 4.3% Medium Term Notes, the Company has fully redeemed all the outstanding January 2016 Notes on their scheduled maturity dates with an equivalent value of US$262 million.
Following the full redemption of all the outstanding January 2016 Notes on their respective scheduled maturity dates, the January 2016 Notes will be cancelled.

[CityFarmer]

Brain-drain in Noble, after the recent company credibility crisis, started (only) one year ago? What a fragile team...

Noble Group's LNG traders leaving to join Glencore – sources

SINGAPORE/LONDON - Three liquefied natural gas (LNG) traders at Asia's biggest commodity trade house, Noble Group Ltd, including two co-heads of the team, are leaving to join rival trader Glencore, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

Noble and Glencore declined to comment. The sources said that Noble will continue to trade LNG, having restarted its London-based trading desk in 2014. Noble will still have about five people involved in the LNG business.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/nobl...re-sources

[Thaddy0103]

Noble profit guidance


http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...eb2016.pdf

[BlueKelah]

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/noble-...00808.html
Noble Group Blames Coal Price Collapse as Writedowns Mount
(Bloomberg) -- Noble Group Ltd. blamed the tumble in coal prices for an additional $1.2 billion in charges that will force the embattled commodities trader to post its first full-year loss in almost two decades.

The company said most of the impairments are due to coal, warning that prices may remain at lower levels for an extended period of time, according to a statement Tuesday. Coal is a pillar of the Hong Kong-based trader’s energy unit, which accounted for 85 percent of revenue in 2014. The fuel’s fortunes have waned amid a broader slump in commodities and worldwide efforts to fight global warming, leaving prices near nine-year lows. Shares rose 1.4 percent at the close.

Noble Group endured a tumultuous 2015 as raw material prices sank, culminating in Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s cutting the trader’s debt rating to junk. The shares lost 65 percent and its bonds tumbled as it parried attacks from short sellers and fended off claims that its accounts were misleading.

“The market was likely anticipating some form of writedown and the flat share price may suggest that as well,” Conrad Werner, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd. in Singapore, said by e-mail. “Banks may see an incrementally ‘cleaner’ balance sheet as a positive factor when they make their lending decision vis- a-vis Noble.”

Noble had positive cash flow in the second half and ended the year with a cash balance of $1.95 billion, the company said. It expects to post a net loss in the fourth quarter and for the full year, which would be its first annual loss since 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The $1.2 billion in non-cash impairments and exceptional charges are in addition to a loss of $546 million from the sale of its Noble Agri Ltd. unit, which shareholders cleared last month.

[Thaddy0103]

Noble profit guidance


http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...eb2016.pdf

In reference to earlier profit guidance post,
transcript of their conference call.
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...230216.pdf

[CityFarmer]

IMO, it is a valid concern. It gives a good reason for creditors to recall their capital...

(not vested)

S&P says Noble Group's losses could complicate loan refinancing

SINGAPORE (Feb 23): Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said it sees Noble Group's profit warning as credit negative and its large losses could potentially complicate refinancing of its revolving credit facility due in May.

"We see some uncertainty regarding the financial covenant definition that could arise from the full-year loss," said S&P, which has Noble on CreditWatch.

"In a low probability, Noble could breach its financial covenants, in our view," S&P said in a statement.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...efinancing

[CY09]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX%20an...eID=391077

Bsuiness whose op cashflow before working capital changes is negative does not paint a good picture. Furthermore a fall in commodity revenue is resulting in gross profits being razor thin.

The company is likely to tide through this year due to its asset sales. But i wonder how the company is going to generate the cash to tide through next year's debt redemption; unless the company unwinds its 3 billion of derivatives contract under net current assets, Noble will be fighting to survive financial year by financial year. Furthermore, Noble has to make payments to its perpetual securities holders. It is perhaps wise Noble has not given dividend this FY to protect its balance sheet.

My predictions is that commodities will be this depressed for the next 24 months, and only companies with a decent cash flow and strong balance sheet will survive (Penguin/Keppel). Noble will have to shore up its balance sheet through equity raising or some other way. Rolling over 2.1 Billion of bank debt under current liabilities will not be easy given its weak balance sheet

*Net fair value gains - net fair value loss of derivatives = 3.2 Bil; equity of noble (nett of perpetual holders) is 2.95 bil

[BlueKelah]

U are likely correct, it does seem like a big deleveraging in commodities is happening right now.

Credit will likely tighten much more as more leveraged firms go under. Interesting times ahead with many value opportunities for opmi soon [emoji5]

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

[fundamentalman]

Unlike agricultural commodities (which enjoy increasing demand in the long run due to population growth), I don't see how coal can rebound significantly in the long run. Coal is in secular long term decline.... renewable, nat gas, and nuclear are slowly eating away at coal's market share in elec generation space.

Noble would have to diversify away from coal in the long run .....