Noble Group

[egghead]

So for next two weeks there is nothing much company can do to support the price. Only third party like Mr. Temasek can come in to help.

Olam has Temasek, but the equivalent of that for Noble is CIC. Current market cap for Noble is about S$ 3.3 billion, and guess how much Noble sold their 51% Agri business to COFCO for?

[desmondxyz]

CIC must be vomiting blood now.....

[LionFlyer]

It seems rather oversold, having fallen a good 27% over the entire week and would be good for a small punt. Unfortunately, I am away from next week for a good 13 days and I don't like to keep open positions on volatile counters.

[Bibi]

Wa I think the drop is a bit too much. I just purchased a puny 10 lots for fun

[Sampling]

at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

[ckwok]

exchange issues warning


Shares in Noble Group, the Asian commodity dealer under fire over alleged aggressive accounting practices, fell 12 per cent on Thursday, leading the Singapore Exchange to issue a warning to investors.

The exchange said investors should “exercise caution” in trading the company’s securities, which sank to their lowest price since the financial crisis.

Noble Group told the Singapore Exchange that it saw no reason for the move in its share price but funds and analysts pointed to mounting pressure on the company since a little-known research house first questioned its accounts almost six months ago.

It is the third time that the Singapore Exchange has queried moves in Noble’s shares in six months.

Shares in Asia’s largest commodity trader have now fallen 57 per cent since February and hit a six and a half year low of S$0.52 on Thursday.

The cost of insuring the company’s debt has more than doubled since February, and rating agency Standard & Poor’s has warned its credit rating — which is essential to any commodity traders’ operations — could be downgraded to junk status without greater transparency.

The share price has tumbled despite a series of share buybacks by the company, including personal purchases by its founder and chairman Richard Elman, a British-born former scrap dealer who launched the company in Hong Kong 28 years ago.

But the company, which is still headquartered in Hong Kong, on Thursday entered its two week “blackout” period before its second-quarter results.

During the blackout period the company and its senior officers are barred from buying or selling its shares, according to Singapore Exchange rules.

As one of the most shorted stocks on the Singapore Exchange that means the company may need to weather more volatility before its results on August 13.

“The weak commodities market and the prospect of an even stronger dollar has highlighted internal issues plaguing the company — this has continued to attract short sellers to Noble,” said Relte Stephen Schutte, analyst at Markit.

Mr Schutte said 11.8 per cent of Noble’s free floating shares were currently out on loan, more than double the amount in early June.

Short sellers borrow shares, sell them and then hope to buy them back at a lower price.

On the same day as its second-quarter results, Noble will also release part of a review of its mark-to-market accounting practices by PwC, which the company’s board has commissioned.

How Noble books profits on long-term commodity deals and values its stakes in assets has been at the centre of the criticism of the company by US short sellers and Iceberg Research, the little-known group that first drew attention to its accounting practices.

Noble has been accused of recording profits on its accounts on some long-term commodities sales and marketing agreements before it receives all of the money related to the transactions.

That has led to fears the amount of money it eventually receives will be lower than initially accounted for.

The company hopes the PwC review will calm investor fears over its accounts but some fund managers and analysts have questioned whether a study paid for by the company will be enough to assuage concerns.

Noble has robustly defended its accounting practices and dismissed Iceberg Research as the work of a disgruntled former employee.

Noble says the value it places on its long-term commodity contracts and assets are consistent with international accounting standards.

[Bibi]

at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

I purchased it based on PB. It took an impairment loss of 200+ millions last FY 2014 and hence the PE > 20. Of course we can argue till the cows come home. E.g book value is overstated, impairment loss should be much more etc.. I am no expert in that area hence this puny stake for fun.

[greengiraffe]

This mata is hopeless lah...

Can we trust them... probably not as they are still struggling to find the truth of the 3 fallen Msian trio (now with the 1MDB saga - who knows if there is any linkages), choose not to ask questions on stocks that keep rising, of course they also ignore so much debate and the behaviour of Noble mgt that is widely reported in the media...

I oso forget to add that with the amount of rubbish being IPOed to so call add to mkt cap, we can only expect more retailers to be disillusioned.

"Trade with caution"

Anyway this is what free mkt is all about...

Caveat Emptor

exchange issues warning


Shares in Noble Group, the Asian commodity dealer under fire over alleged aggressive accounting practices, fell 12 per cent on Thursday, leading the Singapore Exchange to issue a warning to investors.

The exchange said investors should “exercise caution” in trading the company’s securities, which sank to their lowest price since the financial crisis.

Noble Group told the Singapore Exchange that it saw no reason for the move in its share price but funds and analysts pointed to mounting pressure on the company since a little-known research house first questioned its accounts almost six months ago.

It is the third time that the Singapore Exchange has queried moves in Noble’s shares in six months.

Shares in Asia’s largest commodity trader have now fallen 57 per cent since February and hit a six and a half year low of S$0.52 on Thursday.

The cost of insuring the company’s debt has more than doubled since February, and rating agency Standard & Poor’s has warned its credit rating — which is essential to any commodity traders’ operations — could be downgraded to junk status without greater transparency.

The share price has tumbled despite a series of share buybacks by the company, including personal purchases by its founder and chairman Richard Elman, a British-born former scrap dealer who launched the company in Hong Kong 28 years ago.

But the company, which is still headquartered in Hong Kong, on Thursday entered its two week “blackout” period before its second-quarter results.

During the blackout period the company and its senior officers are barred from buying or selling its shares, according to Singapore Exchange rules.

As one of the most shorted stocks on the Singapore Exchange that means the company may need to weather more volatility before its results on August 13.

“The weak commodities market and the prospect of an even stronger dollar has highlighted internal issues plaguing the company — this has continued to attract short sellers to Noble,” said Relte Stephen Schutte, analyst at Markit.

Mr Schutte said 11.8 per cent of Noble’s free floating shares were currently out on loan, more than double the amount in early June.

Short sellers borrow shares, sell them and then hope to buy them back at a lower price.

On the same day as its second-quarter results, Noble will also release part of a review of its mark-to-market accounting practices by PwC, which the company’s board has commissioned.

How Noble books profits on long-term commodity deals and values its stakes in assets has been at the centre of the criticism of the company by US short sellers and Iceberg Research, the little-known group that first drew attention to its accounting practices.

Noble has been accused of recording profits on its accounts on some long-term commodities sales and marketing agreements before it receives all of the money related to the transactions.

That has led to fears the amount of money it eventually receives will be lower than initially accounted for.

The company hopes the PwC review will calm investor fears over its accounts but some fund managers and analysts have questioned whether a study paid for by the company will be enough to assuage concerns.

Noble has robustly defended its accounting practices and dismissed Iceberg Research as the work of a disgruntled former employee.

Noble says the value it places on its long-term commodity contracts and assets are consistent with international accounting standards.

[CityFarmer]

at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

I purchased it based on PB. It took an impairment loss of 200+ millions last FY 2014 and hence the PE > 20. Of course we can argue till the cows come home. E.g book value is overstated, impairment loss should be much more etc.. I am no expert in that area hence this puny stake for fun.

To join the fun, I am working out the "safer" price to bet on Noble. All in S$ from shareinvestor.com

Current Asset : 20.7 billion
Total Liabilities : 19.2 billion
Liquidation Value without discount (Current Asset - Total Liabilities) : 1.5 billion
Outstanding Share (ex-Treasury) : 6.4 billion shares
LV per share : ~24 cents per share.

How much is the fixed asset worth, which is the hardest question. Let's make a 75% cut of the fixed asset from 5.5 billion to 1.4 billion, or ~22 cents per share.

Total : 24 cents + 22 cents = 46 cents per share, which is very close to current market price.

Is the company over-sold, to an irrational valuation? I guess it is very likely so.

What do you think?

(not vested, and not prepare to bet)

[greengiraffe]

at the current price PE still >20...

in my opinion still a lot of room for it to go down further!

I purchased it based on PB. It took an impairment loss of 200+ millions last FY 2014 and hence the PE > 20. Of course we can argue till the cows come home. E.g book value is overstated, impairment loss should be much more etc.. I am no expert in that area hence this puny stake for fun.

To join the fun, I am working out the "safer" price to bet on Noble. All in S$ from shareinvestor.com

Current Asset : 20.7 billion
Total Liabilities : 19.2 billion
Liquidation Value without discount (Current Asset - Total Liabilities) : 1.5 billion
Outstanding Share (ex-Treasury) : 6.4 billion shares
LV per share : ~24 cents per share.

How much is the fixed asset worth, which is the hardest question. Let's make a 75% cut of the fixed asset from 5.5 billion to 1.4 billion, or ~22 cents per share.

Total : 24 cents + 22 cents = 46 cents per share, which is very close to current market price.

Is the company over-sold, to an irrational valuation? I guess it is very likely so.

What do you think?

(not vested, and not prepare to bet)

Enron? How do u value Enron? What was Enron valued at just before it evaoprated?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal

http://www.economist.com/node/940091

http://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverste...te-values/

Sorry, I btc so I better quote from the professional journalist...

Odd Lots Vested
At Least 10 years liao