Noble Group

[newborn1000]

Iceberg Research 3rd report
Noble TP $0.10

Makes for a pretty interesting read!

oh mine......iceberg looks well organised, whats the motivation behind it?

[BlueKelah]

Likely make a name for themselves before launching their own fund?

Maybe really its the ex employee who was fired for not wanting to go along with the dishonesty which he saw?

[cfa]

No smoke without fire . Nobel can sue iceberg if they lied.

[BlueKelah]

Cant sue lah, iceberg just have negative things to say, there is no wrong in being bearish, so long as numbers are there on the financial report, anyone can blog and speculate on the numbers anyway they like.

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

[level13]

No smoke without fire . Nobel can sue iceberg if they lied.

Good try. Olam wanted to do the same to Muddy Waters. So then what happened?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1000142412...3990857970

[FA+TA]

Noble to sue Iceberg
NextInsight: Chan Kit Whye on 3rd Iceberg report on NOBLE GROUP

[yeokiwi]

Noble to sue Iceberg
NextInsight: Chan Kit Whye on 3rd Iceberg report on NOBLE GROUP

Well, going to the court, presenting all information and being subject to cross examination. I think it is really tough even for any company.
You just need one minor lapse and it will be blown up.

Even for Sg gov, the yearly audit by Attorney General would normally throw up lapses by Ministries though they were not damning.

[fat al]

No smoke without fire . Nobel can sue iceberg if they lied.

Good try. Olam wanted to do the same to Muddy Waters. So then what happened?

http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1000142412...3990857970

Yah, why sue? Only lawyers benefit.

Management should be happy that prices have been driven down unless they are in the midst of raising new equity capital. Time for share buyback to benefit loyal shareholders, improving TSR.

[specuvestor]

Need to sue because perception matters though materially Iceberg probably got next to zero assets to be seized like in Olam's case

Reading their 3rd report further confirm my suspicion of their lack in quality analysis.

AR lower than AP is bad and fraudulent means negative working capital is not desirable? I could think of the classic Dell example as the much touted Dell model in the last decade. Currrently there is a bigger obvious fraud which is China Mobile. No prizes for guessing why their AP is much larger than AR for as long as I can remember.

Encumbered cash is not considered part of net cash? So if my house is mortgaged it should be taken off my asset side of the B/S?

The problem with Enron is they set up SPVs with fancy names like Chewbacca where the directors are major shareholders holding in trust for the company. That's why nowadays the test is whether the company has substantial control over the SPV or associates regardless of holding %. I dont see that in their declared 49% holding in Agri which I do not know if COFCO or Noble is laible for the debt.

I am not vested but just to highlight things that I thought dont make sense. Nonetheless I would think 1Q results will be affected as their working capital likely to shrink on the conservative side due to this uncertainty. And as posted, Noble is much more opportunistic than Olam.

It doesn't take a lot to calculate the value of listed Yancoal and compare to book value. It takes a lot more to estimate the value of Yancoal to Yanzhou Coal. A large chuck of the cashflow goes to repay loan and interest, which I suspect it's an LBO of Gloucester coal gone awry

IMHO Iceberg report is simplistic to accounting technicalities compared to Anonymous report. I have no vested interest but sharing what I observe.

[BlueKelah]

Noble to sue Iceberg
NextInsight: Chan Kit Whye on 3rd Iceberg report on NOBLE GROUP

Noble planning to sue this fella -> Arnaud Vagner in HongKong Court(? ex-employee ?)
and Enlighten Ace Ltd, a Seychelles company (this sort usually is shell company, cannot trace the owner.) Probably that hongkong guy just paid for the .com domain name used to publish the reports.

Dont think they will be successful.

Investor confidence has already been damaged and core business environment in commodities is just on a big downtrend. Those who dump the stock would be thinking twice before jumping in again. Noble might have to report more losses next few quarters.

-not v-