Sydney Property Bubble

[specuvestor]

No doubt RBA had been doing a good job. In another thread I have said that Glen Stevens had been mentioned along side with Stanley Fischer as the most respected central bankers.

But central banks can only soften cycles and governments have to legislate policies to make it structurally difficult for hot money. For a huge country like Australia of course dynamics differ cities to cities but generally rental yield in recent history had not be much positive carry in Australia AFAIK, which was always the argument against capital appreciation in Australia. Coupled with the declining resource sector and return of current accout deficit, Pinpointing the top is impossible but the peak of Aussie property market should be nigh, just observing and forecasting China, HK or Singapore market in this forum

[greengiraffe]

Due to negative gearing, property yield down under has always been negative. In fact, only due to super low interest rates recently, there were some instances of breakeven or positive carry...

No doubt RBA had been doing a good job. In another thread I have said that Glen Stevens had been mentioned along side with Stanley Fischer as the most respected central bankers.

But central banks can only soften cycles and governments have to legislate policies to make it structurally difficult for hot money. For a huge country like Australia of course dynamics differ cities to cities but generally rental yield in recent history had not be much positive carry in Australia AFAIK, which was always the argument against capital appreciation in Australia. Coupled with the declining resource sector and return of current accout deficit, Pinpointing the top is impossible but the peak of Aussie property market should be nigh, just observing and forecasting China, HK or Singapore market in this forum

[greengiraffe]

Chinese princeling rebuilds one of Sydney's icons
Samantha Hutchinson
356 words
16 May 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
Zeng Wei and wife Jiang Mei spent $32.4 million on their dream home six years ago. This week they started knocking it down.

Demolition works began on Tuesday at Craig-y-Mor, the iconic mansion in Sydney's Point Piper the Chinese princeling and his wife bought in 2008. By Thursday, the roof had gone and its interiors designed by professor Leslie Wilkinson were all but gutted.

Next week workers will load a four-tonne excavator onto the site on Wolseley Road to begin a tunnel linking a gym and pool with lower levels, according to men at the site.

In the next months, a striking contemporary home in a sandy grey will emerge in place of the elegant coral-coloured residence with great views of the city, that for a period, was the most expensive home in Australia. Former Patrick stevedores chief executive Chris Corrigan was once an owner, as was late stockbroker Rene Rivkin, who sold the home in 2004 to Sydney businessman, and confidante to James Packer, Ben Tilley for $16.15 million. It proved to be an exceptional investment, doubling in value in the four years Tilley held it.

"It's a very nicely proportioned, classic family home," Sotheby's International agent Michael Pallier said. "But these owners really bought it for the position, not the home."

"People with the antique furniture to furnish it might have chosen to keep it the way it was, but some people want just want something contemporary."

Mr Wei, who is the son of former vice-president of China, Zeng Qinghong, has enlisted prominent Sydney architecture firm Gergely and Pinter to design the new house.

Woollahra Council rejected the plans three times before the Land and Environment Court issued the green light on Christmas Eve in 2010.

It is not architect Stephen Gergely's first project in the street nicknamed Millionaires' Row. Gergely has also designed a home for the Lederer family of Primo Smallgoods, which sits across the road, and another six-bedroom waterfront property for sale at 130 Wolseley Road.

Samantha Hutchinson


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Sold out sign for Elara

Mercedes Ruehl
260 words
26 May 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
The first release of land at Elara, ­Stockland's $740 million community under construction in Sydney's Marsden Park, has sold out.

All 48 lots available in the 178-hectare ­community, in the city's north-west, were snapped up by buyers on Saturday.

Lots ranged from 280 square metres to 461 square metres, with prices ranging from $255,000 to $360,000.

The development is one of five projects in Stockland's strategy to restructure its residential portfolio and bring projects to the market more quickly.

It also demonstrated the demand for residential projects, the company said.

"This high-quality development will be an important contributor to improving our revenue growth over the next two years," Stockland group executive and CEO residential Andrew Whitson said.

"We've now brought to market our second, major, new residential ­development in western Sydney after last year's launch of the 350-hectare, 3000-lot Willowdale development, where we've sold out seven successive stages, totalling more than 350 lots, on their respective first day of release."

The project will provide land for 2200 new homes.

The first homes are expected to be completed by early 2016.

The proposed Elara community will include several parks, a shopping centre, a public primary school, playing fields and other community facilities.

The Marsden Park town centre is ­adjacent to the new Sydney Business Park which will feature an Ikea, Costco, ­Masters and Bunnings.

The Marsden Park area is about 30 minutes from Macquarie Park and the Parramatta CBD.


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Yun Choi holds the space as Sydney car park bids top $110m
GREG BROWN THE AUSTRALIAN MAY 29, 2014 12:00AM

A 10-level car park in the Sydney central business district is emerging as one of the country’s hottest development sites, with bids reaching $110 million.

The Cinema Centre car park at 521-527 Kent Street has been circled by local and offshore developers, with Chinese giants Greenland Holding Group and Poly Real Estate Group thought to be among those that have placed offers.

The car park could be transformed into a residential, commercial and hotel redevelopment that could be worth more than $500m and join a host of projects proposed at the southern end of the central business district.

The property was bought for $41m in 2009 by a private Hong Kong company, HK Realway, and director Yun Choi was thought to be reluctant to sell the car park, so far turning down the offers, sources said.

The former owner, Grosvenor Australia, took advice on developing two residential towers above the existing
multistorey car park in Kent Street. But ultimately a development application submitted to the central Sydney planning committee by Grosvenor in 2004 was rejected on planning and urban design grounds, and because it “entrenches a prohibited land use (the public car park)”.

It is thought Mr Choi wants to build a local real estate investment portfolio and could choose to hold the property until he buys more assets. The car park has 906 spaces and is one of the largest in the CBD.

Poly Real Estate Group is China’s second-largest developer and is looking for an entrance to the Australian market.

The group was willing to pay about $200m for a local site so it could undertake a large initial project, sources said.

Greenland is aggressively looking at development opportunities and has this year bought suburban Sydney sites in North Sydney and Leichhardt.

[greengiraffe]

Rush on new apartments

KYLAR LOUSSIKIAN THE AUSTRALIAN MAY 30, 2014 12:00AM

DEVELOPERS of a new residential project in Sydney’s Bondi Junction are anticipating brisk sales this weekend even before the development is officially launched.

The 20-storey Aqua development on the corner of Oxford Street and Hollywood Avenue, in the eastern suburbs, is being developed by Leighton Properties in a joint venture with Qualitas and sold through Colliers.

Agents in the area said demand for apartments was extremely high and all 129 apartments could be sold on the first weekend. This follows a successful previous weekend for developers, with the Eve project in inner suburban Erskineville selling 140 of the 197 apartments on offer.

The continued popularity of apartments close to Sydney’s CBD comes as developer lobby group Urban Taskforce has warned that NSW has a 120,000-home shortfall.

“If the robust population growth continues over 50 years we will need to double the number of houses or apartments in Sydney from the current 1,673,800,” said Chris Johnson, Urban Taskforce’s chief.

Mr Johnson said the figures, released yesterday by the Department of Planning Environment showing Sydney would be home to 5.9 million people by 2031, also found 20,000 people will leave NSW each year “presumably because of the cost of housing”. Three overseas migrants will arrive for every resident that moves interstate, while two babies will be born for every person who dies, the figures found.

[Boon]

Over-demand or under-supply, as long as these imbalances exist, she'll be right, mate !
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Why Melbourne has planned better for growth than Sydney

Date: June 1, 2014

Michael Koziol

It struck me on a recent trip south that Melburnians appear to be living in some sort of nirvana. Not only is there no 1.30am lockout, no discernable traffic and no State of Origin, but property in Melbourne is vaguely affordable, whether to rent or buy.

As a born and bred Sydneysider, this is astounding. Here, a fibro shack within cooee of a train station will soak up most of your income. There, agents are flogging new CBD apartments for $400 a week.

Chris Johnson, head of the Urban Taskforce which represents property developers, says Sydney's price premium is partly driven by our harbour views, which drive the top end of the market. But Melbourne has also done a much better of job of building sufficient housing for its growing population, particularly in the inner city.

“[Sydney's] slow supply has a big impact on the cost of housing because there's just not enough of it," Johnson says.

New government figures published by the Herald show an additional 2 million people will live in NSW by 2031, and more than 660,000 homes will need to materialise in Sydney itself. These are revised forecasts and could be revised upward again.

How these 5.9 million Sydneysiders will co-exist in a city adamant not to build anything is unclear.

The newly-announced Darling Square precinct, which will house 4000 people across seven towers on the old Entertainment Centre site, is a welcome development. Even there, in the middle of the CBD, some dared to suggest that 40 storeys would be simply too high.

Sydney councils like to boast of meeting and exceeding their growth targets as set by the state government. But these remain fairly muted aspirations. Leichhardt, for example, was required to build 2400 new dwellings from 2004 to 2036 - an average of 75 a year.

The "not in my backyard" crowd is often characterised as a benign, pro-sustainability collective who just want to preserve their quaint cafes and quiet streets from the looming threat of outsiders.

But the true face of NIMBYism is a professional resistance movement comprising older generations who, having inherited or negatively geared their way into property ownership, have no interest in it being affordable to anybody else. Planning expert Bill Randolph told the Herald this week that a “real tension” will arise if older households fail to downsize and make way for young families, who increasingly want to raise kids in urban areas.

The state's new planning laws are now the domain of Pru Goward. At the heart of the legislation is a smart sentiment - decide on a planning framework and then stick with it, instead of endless debate about any one development proposal. But even this is needlessly more complex than simply following a well-worn path: take what Melbourne does and do the opposite.

Our Melburnian cousins have courageously proposed to build 1.6 million new dwellings by 2051, with two-thirds of them being apartments. This is good. But at least 50 per cent of the city’s residential land will be quarantined from development by allowing local councils to declare a "neighbourhood residential zone". Such a zoning, which could be applied to "areas with neighbourhood character overlays" (whatever that is), would prohibit townhouses and apartments, leaving only the barren monotone of detached suburbia.

Rather than these flat-earth zones, where high-rise is verboten, Sydney should ban the construction of free-standing homes anywhere east of, say, Parramatta. All new construction would have a minimum density requirement. Any redevelopment of existing property would need to at least double its occupancy capacity, including home-owners undertaking a knock-down-and-rebuild.

Under this system, heritage would be preserved while also recognising that it cannot and need not last forever. Sprawling estates could still be permitted at the city's edge, for those who maintain that children cannot be raised without a palatial rumpus room and a hills hoist.

Would such a bold idea ever be implemented in fair Sydney, where geography rules and everybody wants a mansion? Absolutely not. But it's worth wondering why, according to Chris Johnson, NSW loses about 20,000 people each year to other states, chiefly Victoria and Queensland. The same does not happen in reverse.

"I think that’s driven by the lack of housing," Johnson says.

They're obviously doing something right down there, and it's now imperative that we catch up.

Michael Koziol is a Fairfax journalist.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-melbou...z33R6nktj1
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On our way to 24 million next year, leaving infrastructure behind

DateJune 2, 2014

A national milestone slipped past us last week: Australia is closer to having 24 million people than 23 million, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics' population clock.

While we were busy wondering about which way Clive Palmer and Malcolm Turnbull spun the lazy susan and the future cost of university degrees that youths can avoid by dying, we ticked over the 23-and-a-half million mark without a murmur, having added an extra 500,000 residents in just 13 months.

By apparent coincidence, there were a couple of stories around over the weekend dealing with the growing population's impact on our key cities – try 8 million in Sydney and 9 million in Melbourne - and what might be done to house them, but the speed of our growth and the immediate challenge remained under the radar.

My suspicion is that many, maybe most Australians still think our population is more like 22 million. In one way, there's nothing wrong with that – one of the very few pleasing aspects of Australian politics over the past couple of years is that population growth has quietly slipped off the radar. Both sides know that our aging demographic profile demands strong population growth at least until we boomers shuffle off – if we ever do.

But in another way, it's a seriously bad thing that we don't more broadly comprehend our size, where it is heading and the demands that will place upon us.

With the politicians not wanting to know about it, I gave myself the privilege of welcoming our 23 millionth Australian last year, congratulating him or her on winning life's lottery. The usual Doomsayers who don't understand our country's untapped capacities and our own resourcefulness had a whinge about sustainability, but the rest of us just kept growing regardless.

At our present population growth rate of 1.8 per cent, the wonder of compound interest means there will be nearly 10 per cent more of us in five years. OK, it's nine-point-something, but 10 per cent sounds better and is easier to work with. So there will be an extra two-and-a-third million or so people to house, transport, feed, clothe, educate, doctor and employ. It's an amazing task to grasp and a wonderful opportunity for business – and it's a more amazing challenge for our politicians.

The budget rhetoric about infrastructure indicates they aren't rising to that challenge. For a start, there's actually less federal money being spent on infrastructure in the new financial year – the relatively little bit of extra Federal cash doesn't flow until 2015-16.

And then it seems to be mainly going on mega road projects that are attempts to solve today's problems - or maybe yesterday's – not the new challenges that will be obvious well before WestConnex is finished. Indeed, some will be obvious before the jackhammers finally start in 14 months. It's instructive that Infrastructure Australia's priority list didn't get much billing in the budget – many of its recommendations don't sound nearly as flash.

The point is, we are already playing catch-up at a rate that won't catch up, especially if the Abbott/Hockey/IPA government continues to push its dangerous and flawed doctrine of competitive federalism. Flicking greater responsibilities onto state governments that are all heading towards financial cliffs won't end up building our future.

To make our growing Australia as enjoyable, functioning and successful as it should be and needs to be, a much bolder and broader vision is required. Instead, we're getting shrinkage.

On Wednesday, the ABS releases the March quarter national accounts. The Reserve Bank's statement on monetary policy last month and the median forecast of 27 private sector economists polled by Bloomberg last week is that March quarter GDP growth should come in at 0.9 per cent, making annual growth of 3.2 per cent. Yes folks, economic growth at or above trend, enough to lower the unemployment rate. We haven't had that for a bit.

But Joe Hockey's forecast is that it won't last, that real GDP growth will slow to just 2.5 per cent through the new financial year. Hockey likes to put the blame for that on the decline in resources construction – but the RBA always reminds us that the fiscal contraction by state and federal governments also is a key factor.

The RBA said before the budget that public demand growth was running at half of what has been average. Hockey's first budget says it will be pushed down to a quarter. More importantly, public investment as a percentage of the economy is running at its lowest level in three quarters of a century, if not longer.

With the infrastructure of our major cities groaning under their present load, a few big roads won't be solving many problems at all by the time they're finished and the population is substantially larger. For all levels of government, hurdles to smarter, better but denser housing remain the norm. The comfortably established in particular want the solutions to our problems to be solved somewhere else, and then pretend concern about where their children might be able to afford to live.

And that's just some of the hardware. As to the more vital software of how we need to be smarter, better skilled and healthier people to improve our quality of our more numerous lives, well that's being punted to the states too – states whose administration and political talent almost make our federal operatives look good.

Meeting our population challenge requires investment, sound investment that will pay handsome dividends that justify borrowing. Our under-investment in crucial hardware and software is a genuine emergency, if the government can understand that, not the manufactured nonsense surrounding our present federal deficit.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-a...z33R81HMCS

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http://theage.domain.com.au/real-estate-...39ftw.html

Point Piper mansion sells for $30 million
Date
June 3, 2014 - 1:11PM

Lucy Macken
Prestige Property Reporter
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Simon family waterfront finds a buyer after eight years.


130 Wolseley Road, Point Piper. Click for more photos
Point Piper mansion sells for $30 million

The Point Piper waterfront mansion of the Simon family has sold for about $30 million, making it this year's highest sale price.

The sale of the trophy residence is expected to boost confidence in the broader prestige market, which has had a deluge of high-end stock this year, but only a couple of high-end transactions.

A sold sticker went up on the Wolseley Road residence on Tuesday morning, although Michael Pallier, of Sotheby's International, declined to comment on the sale.

The six-bedroom residence was first listed eight years ago with hopes that started at just shy of $30 million, but crept upwards to more than $35 million before the global financial crisis. Several agents have tried unsuccessfully to sell it.

A buyer from China was circling the property last week and is rumoured to have made an offer of $28.5 million. The vendors have long held out for a sale of more than $30 million.

The late Peter and Ruth Simon, who owned electrical switch company HPM Industries, bought the 1000 square metre property in 1996 for $12 million from the late FAI chairman Larry Adler, and updated by Gergely and Pinter Architects that same year.

The four-storey property has a deepwater jetty, pontoon and slipway, swimming pool, formal and informal living areas, six bedrooms, eight bathrooms, self-contained quarters, lift, marble foyer and the highly prized gun-barrel views of the Harbour Bridge.

Sydney's record house price remains the $53 million paid for the nearby waterfront Villa Veneto, and second highest was set last March when Altona sold for $52 million.

Until this sale, the year's highest prices were both in Bellevue Hill. Donnington Grange, the former home of Angela Fleming, widow of grocery tycoon Jim Fleming sold for $19 million in March to Matthew Koder, Asia Pacific president at the Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and his wife Shanyan.

In April that was topped when Caledonia Investments chairman Michael Darling and his wife, Manuela Darling-Gansser, sold their home Rovello on Ginahgulla Road for more than $20 million.

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Off-the-plan on the rise

Rebecca Thistleton
401 words
5 Jun 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.

Sydney apartment prices are forecast to rise another 15 per cent over the next two years, despite record levels of new stock coming to market and signs momentum is slowing in the housing market.

Analysis from BIS Shrapnel showed growth in high-density units sold off the plan is expected to continue through 2015-16, backed by low vacancy rates, low interest rates, attractive yields and offshore investment.

At the same time, a slowdown in capital gains across the broader housing market is unlikely to stem Sydney's thriving ­apartment market, as there is far more pent-up demand yet to be sated.

BIS Shrapnel has expects apartment approvals in high-density projects – four storeys and above – to remain above 20,000 dwellings annually in 2014-15 and 2015-16.

BIS Shrapnel senior analyst Angie ­Zigomanis said Sydney's apartment ­market was not expected to end up ­oversupplied, but vacancy rates would probably ease and reduce upwards price pressure by the time the Reserve Bank considered an interest rate increase.

Mr Zigomanis said he expected off-the-plan sales to slow during 2016. For now, the market surge will continue, fuelled by underlying demand which built up in the downturn which followed a Sydney ­residential boom in the early 2000s.

"The peak in apartment prices and sales by 2004 resulted in the market being overvalued and oversupplied," Mr ­Zigomanis said.

"The subsequent downturn resulted in the oversupply being absorbed by 2006-07, but it took several more years of rental growth before returns increased sufficiently for residential property to become attractive to investors again."

About $45 billion was borrowed in the 12 months to March 2014 to buy ­residential property in NSW alone – a 76 per cent jump on the 2010-11 total.

This has translated to off-the-plan sales, with high-density building ­approvals in Sydney more than doubling from 9932 dwellings in 2010-11, to 20,354 dwellings in the year to March 2014.

BIS Shrapnel analysis also showed ­Sydney unit prices rose about 18 per cent during the past two years.

Despite the record new apartment ­supply coming on line, BIS Shrapnel do not see an surplus of apartments ­emerging as there is still an underlying shortage. Also, first home buyer levels are still running at low levels, therefore rental market demand for units is expected to continue.


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Views to pine for

ANNA ANDERSON
1015 words
7 Jun 2014
The Sydney Morning Herald
SMHH
English
© 2014 Copyright John Fairfax Holdings Limited. Factiva.Gateway.Messages.Archive.V1_0.ELink
NEW HOMES

Apartments overlooking water are usually pricey, but there are some good-value ones available.

A room with a view is one thing, but a home with a water view is considered prime property. In any apartment block where some units overlook the water, it is those apartments that command a premium price.

Sydney's majestic harbour and waterways and its undulating topography mean many home-owners are blessed with water views. Far fewer, however, have the luxury of living in a new apartment overlooking the water. When buyers do find such a coveted home, it usually comes with a hefty price tag.

Yet some developers are building new apartments in Sydney that offer water views and value for money.

Ten kilometres south of the central business district on the shores of the Cooks River, the last waterfront building in the master-planned Discovery Point is ready to launch. The North tower of Shore is creating a buzz following the popularity of the East tower, which sold quickly off the plan when it launched late last year.

"We released Shore East in December, quickly selling more than 80 per cent," says Nigel Edgar, NSW residential division general manager of Australand.

He notes that more than 70 per cent of the Shore North release is priced at $850,000 or lower and more than 75 per cent of those apartments feature a water view.

"Our buyers are telling us they see value in Discovery Point."

It's not just the view buyers are after. Discovery Point is centrally located. Wolli Creek train station is on site and it is just one stop from the airport and five from the city. Covering six hectares, it incorporates three hectares of public open space.

"I can't think of a parallel development with so much public amenity and such good transport connections so close to the city," Edgar says.

On Sydney's north, 15 kilometres from the city, is another waterfront development. Shepherds Bay at Meadowbank, is an urban renewal site of 6.7 hectares. It is located seven train stops from Central station and boasts a ferry service.

The master-planned development by Holdmark has one-, two- and three-bedroom apartments designed to maximise water views.

Shepherds Bay has attracted a large percentage of owner-occupiers who see the value of living by the water in a new master-planned community, says Tim Rees, senior director of residential projects at selling agent CBRE.

"You can buy a large 87-square-metre two-bedroom apartment with two bathrooms and a 100-square-metre terrace with water views from $830,000," he says. "That represents excellent value for a Sydney property on the water."

He agrees with Edgar that there are few opportunities in Sydney for new waterside apartments so close to transport for less than $900,000.

The first stage of Shepherds Bay has proved popular, with units almost sold out. Stage two is expected to be released soon.

At Meriton's riverside project, Altitude at Parramatta, apartments with water views in the 53-storey West Tower start at $635,000. Nearly every apartment has a view of the river, CBD or Blue Mountains.

A three-bedroom apartment in the building designed by Tony Caro Architecture recently set an area record, selling for $1.3 million, and a one-bedroom apartment went for $700,000.

"Our sales reflect the current market in which owner-occupiers and investors are prepared to pay a premium to secure unrivalled views in a riverside location," says Meriton's national sales manager, James Sialepis.

Altitude is attracting downsizers, investors and young professionals. They are drawn to the location, with its transport hub of buses, trains and ferries, the commerce of Sydney's second-largest CBD and the chance to enjoy far-reaching views.

Shore North, 8 Brodie Spark Drive, Wolli Creek

Designed by PTW architects, Shore consists of two 19-storey towers, East and North, sharing an elevated landscaped podium with never-to-be-built-out water and city views. For sale in North are one-beds (57-68 sq m total) from about $490,000, two-beds (78-131 sq m) from $640,000 and three-beds (112-132 sq m) from $900,000. Strata levies from $700 pq. Planned completion late 2016. Phone 13 38 38. discoverypoint.com.au/shore.

CASE STUDY

After spending the day at work in the city, Henry He is looking forward to relaxing in his new apartment overlooking the Cooks River.

He, 26, was in the queue on the launch day of Discovery Point's Shore East tower last December. He secured a two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment with a car space on level nine paying $815,000.

"My priorities were firstly, good transport, then price and then a water view," says He. "I am an accountant working in the city. It's very important for me to live near train transport."

But the water view was a deal-maker. "Chinese people like water views because water means fortune."

ANNA ANDERSON

OR TRY THESE ...

Shepherds Bay, Rothesay Avenue and Belmore Street, Meadowbank

This master-planned project on 6.7 hectares has frontage to the Parramatta River, waterside pathways and landscaped areas. It is close to Meadowbank's ferry wharf and train station. For sale are one-bedroom apartments from $587,000-$655,000, two beds from $710,000-$995,000 and three beds from $885,000-$1.325 million. Display centre at 118 Bowden St, open daily noon-4pm. Phone 1800 202 784. shepherdsbay.com.au.

Altitude, 330 Church Street, Parramatta

The riverside West Tower of Altitude at 53 storeys will be a landmark for Sydney's west. Trains, ferries and buses are nearby. One-bedroom apartments (45-63 square metres internal) from $615,000, two beds (70-90 sq m) from $795,000 and three-beds (112 sq m total) from $1.1 million. Strata levies from $700 a quarter. Completion mid-2016. Phone 0411 485 607.

meriton.com.au/properties/altitude-apartments-Parramatta.


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