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(19-01-2014, 02:25 PM)weijian Wrote: (19-01-2014, 11:09 AM)AndrewHW Wrote: I agree there are a lot of people waiting at the sidelines, but I do believe their impact on prices is not up but down over time. Let's see what happens over the next 3 years.
Generally, people's memories still remember GFC08, where prices bottomed and rebounced in just 2 quarters. Will history actually repeat itself again exactly?
It has generally been agreed that prices will only soften (fall by between 5-10%) in the event of an over-supply. For prices to fall beyond that, either higher interest rates and/or uncertainty of your own business/job in a bad recession, has to coincide to create the perfect storm. How many of those at the sidelines are really ready for the perfect storm? (for one, i know i am not)
How many prospective buyers stress-test their elephant gun ammunition with normalized SIBOR of at least 3-3.5%? What would be the % of monthly mortgage payments that they have budgeted to come from rental support? Do one have holding power if no tenant can be found for at least 2 years? What if i lose my current job or my business requires cash infusion to survive the rough patch?
Granted, 'a lot' of people are waiting, but how many are daring and decisive enough to fire their elephant gun when the time comes? Will they worry that a tiger will appear out of nowhere after they fired? do u mean those on the sideline tend to be on the sideline?
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19-01-2014, 09:49 PM
(This post was last modified: 19-01-2014, 09:51 PM by CY09.)
(19-01-2014, 03:17 PM)AndrewHW Wrote: @chialc88: I don't really have a strong opinion on the amount of drop. Perhaps 20-30% like you said. But more importantly today there seemed to be no more crazy rush to buy properties in anticipation of gains. If people are still expecting a repeat of the recent gain, they will be in for a surprised.
@weijian: History may or may not repeat itself but already property prices are overextended for some time now so something is bound to happen. I don't have a crystal ball that says how soon or how much it will drop but like it said to chialc88, there seemed to be no more crazy rush to buy properties in anticipation of gains. So if someone is looking to buy for investment, it's much better to wait it out until SIBOR is back to a more reasonable levels where most of the weak long would have already given up. For myself, I will consider to buy a property by 2017 so staying on the sideline now and i'm sure prices will be lower then. If not, it will still be about today's level so either way it is better off to wait.
Hi Andrew just curious why will you consider to buy a property by 2017?
Do take note the market can be irrational longer than expected.
Using Weijian's explanation, home owners may be able to hold out property prices if they are able to afford a SIBOR 3.5% loan repayment with no rental income. It's only when this speculators are out of job, that they default and banks seek to repossess their home. Based on my personal experience, I know an individual who bought property 1 and 2 (both condos) in 1994 and late 2000 respectively. He is still servicing his 25 yr loans without default despite experiencing the housing bottom of 2004 and the GFC. What is amazing is he is only able to get his second property rented out less than 50% of the time. What enables him to maintain his repayment is simply being employed throughout these years.
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(19-01-2014, 09:38 PM)pianist Wrote: Granted, 'a lot' of people are waiting, but how many are daring and decisive enough to fire their elephant gun when the time comes? Will they worry that a tiger will appear out of nowhere after they fired? do u mean those on the sideline tend to be on the sideline?
[/quote]
hi pianist, what i mean is that in the event of a significant correction, only the brave/prepared/decisive (borrowing from Kopikat's signature) at the sidelines will truly be able to profit from it. For the average retail guy, it is easier to buy equities than a property in a crisis, due to the position size factor under uncertainty.
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(20-01-2014, 06:42 AM)weijian Wrote: (19-01-2014, 09:38 PM)pianist Wrote: Granted, 'a lot' of people are waiting, but how many are daring and decisive enough to fire their elephant gun when the time comes? Will they worry that a tiger will appear out of nowhere after they fired? do u mean those on the sideline tend to be on the sideline?
hi pianist, what i mean is that in the event of a significant correction, only the brave/prepared/decisive (borrowing from Kopikat's signature) at the sidelines will truly be able to profit from it. For the average retail guy, it is easier to buy equities than a property in a crisis, due to the position size factor under uncertainty.
[/quote]
To add, SG physical property cannot average down coz of big ticket price. Only can 1 shot 1 kill. Must be 'chun' or ability to take markdown in valuation (to meet bank LTV).
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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Remisier King Peter Lim bids for Spanish football club at S$600,000,000
His net worth ( Forbe's) is about S$2,600,000,000 ( 2.6 Billion)
That is about 23% of his nett worth.
A sideliner who buys a property at S$1,000,000
who has probably a nett worth of S$2,000,000 is
risking 50%.
What information does Peter Lim have on football business trends?
What does a sideliner know about property business trends?
Being brave means you have made calculations and are 90% sure of it. That prepares you and you become decisive.
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(20-01-2014, 11:21 AM)Porkbelly Wrote: Remisier King Peter Lim bids for Spanish football club at S$600,000,000
His net worth ( Forbe's) is about S$2,600,000,000 ( 2.6 Billion)
That is about 23% of his nett worth.
A sideliner who buys a property at S$1,000,000
who has probably a nett worth of S$2,000,000 is
risking 50%.
What information does Peter Lim have on football business trends?
What does a sideliner know about property business trends?
Being brave means you have made calculations and are 90% sure of it. That prepares you and you become decisive.
footballs clubs are usually billionaires' status symbols for vanity purposes.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster
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(20-01-2014, 06:42 AM)weijian Wrote: (19-01-2014, 09:38 PM)pianist Wrote: Granted, 'a lot' of people are waiting, but how many are daring and decisive enough to fire their elephant gun when the time comes? Will they worry that a tiger will appear out of nowhere after they fired? do u mean those on the sideline tend to be on the sideline?
hi pianist, what i mean is that in the event of a significant correction, only the brave/prepared/decisive (borrowing from Kopikat's signature) at the sidelines will truly be able to profit from it. For the average retail guy, it is easier to buy equities than a property in a crisis, due to the position size factor under uncertainty.
[/quote]
Because most people cannot afford to average down, they really need to do their homework. It's not just the fundamentals but you also need to enter the market based on technicals.
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(20-01-2014, 12:40 PM)Tiggerbee Wrote: (20-01-2014, 06:42 AM)weijian Wrote: (19-01-2014, 09:38 PM)pianist Wrote: Granted, 'a lot' of people are waiting, but how many are daring and decisive enough to fire their elephant gun when the time comes? Will they worry that a tiger will appear out of nowhere after they fired? do u mean those on the sideline tend to be on the sideline?
hi pianist, what i mean is that in the event of a significant correction, only the brave/prepared/decisive (borrowing from Kopikat's signature) at the sidelines will truly be able to profit from it. For the average retail guy, it is easier to buy equities than a property in a crisis, due to the position size factor under uncertainty.
Because most people cannot afford to average down, they really need to do their homework. It's not just the fundamentals but you also need to enter the market based on technicals.
[/quote]
The property market seems to be heading one way down by all the talks and news. So should people who can sell, sell now and buy back later, cheaper? Aka is short selling a possible strategy?
i understand in "Me & My Money", a couple even sell their only roof over their heads -A terrace home.
Wah! It's something like Short selling isn't it?
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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Correct, T.
Not just any1 but
CEO of OUE commercial REIT, hur.
Now, they are renting a condo...
Many people actually waiting to plunge into the market....
 Love Compassion
A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.
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Wow, look at the resale prices curve down in district 22. Something like 15% down alreadi:
https://www.squarefoot.com.sg/
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