Jardine Cycle & Carriage

[DCF]

There may be another round of selling. For those who stretch themselves to exercise the right, they may need to liquidate. Del monte, china fishery, for example, fall below right after the Right share become exercisable. Jardin c&c may not drop so much as the right ratio is smaller

Got it right this time, and price start to drop after right announcement, when people who stretched know that they will get the right share, and started selling their original shares. I think this will last 3-4 days so it is time to pick them up in cheap...

Agree. I like to pick stocks based on fundamental as well. But when it is time to buy, or sell, everything that make a difference in the price must be considered

This is inline with usual mkt rights issue play and has little to do with the fundamentals of the company...

[greengiraffe]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Form3EPF...eID=361592

One added dimension to the weak JC&C price performance - EPF did not take up the rights amounting to 2.022822m rights and hence there was the entire amount sold into the mkt.

To add on to the selling pressure was riskless arbitrage trading that was executed by computer riding on the back of the genuine sellers.

Hence the amount EPF forgo is now the overhang.

NB EPF only need to declare their dilution when rights shares starts trading today as the enlarged share cap takes place today.

Vested
Blur
GG

Based on my riskless arbitrage theory, I have conducted the following forensic studies:

The rights started trading on 1 Jul and the following are the turnover in units:

Mother shares: 4.924m shares
Rights: 4.721m

The theoretical ex rights price on 24 Jun was $34.21
The day before rights started trading on 30 Jun, mother shares ended at 33.10
Today's intraday low is $28.78
Total JC&C paid up cap is currently 395.236m

Assuming 80% of 4.721m rights were related to algo based arbitrage = 3.776m shares
Average margin of $0.10, the arbitrage profits before SGX clearing is $0.3776m
The mkt cap wipe out from the 30 Jun to today's intraday low is S$1707m

It is amazing how for less than S$0.4m riskless profits, mkt cap in excess of S$1707m can be wipeoff a bluechip and resulting in all sorts of noise and nerve wreck on a stock.

A remiser friend of mine was asking - doesn't watch dog investigate such erratic market movements? Is this part of normal business?

It also bring me back to my broken recorder: What is the investigation outcome of the crash of the 3 msian penny stocks? Is someone sleeping?

Is this part of normal business?

Vested
J C&C

[Modified by Admin : (33.1 - 28.78)*395.236m = 1707m, not 170.7m as stated previously by GG]

Its computer driven algo trading...

Once the computer long the rights, it will just sell the mother shares with borrowed scripts which will be return once the rights are subscribed.

U can see the fairly constant trading spread between the rights and the mother shares.

There are plenty of big bank backed traders that are using their computer trading systems to get this riskless arbitrage.

On ASX, such a phenomenon seldom exists as rights are non renounceable.

Rights trading last day on Thursday.

J C&C steep decline started when rights were first announced and when actual rights trading started, all hell break loose. Trading volume is also extraordinarily high.

Many companies with rights issues have experienced such selloff before.

Basically, its human against computers and in a relentless decline, negative sentiment and hence all sorts of justifications emerges and hence feed through to the vicious cycle.

Don't believe too much in my conspiracy theories. Do check against Astra and JC
&C share price over last 5 yrs via bloomberg.

Trading Vested
GG

[rayleen88]

really have to keep long term liao.. p/e is like in 10-11 region now.

dunno what's with the relentless gap down on opening nowadays..

[greengiraffe]

Yo buddy,

Its wrong term not long term. Long term investment is a self convincing tactic.

However, sleep easy... Taipans are firmly behind u. They have more to lose than you.

No Worries
GG

really have to keep long term liao.. p/e is like in 10-11 region now.

dunno what's with the relentless gap down on opening nowadays..

[cyclone]

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...uddies.com

PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK 2015 FIRST HALF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Highlights
- Net earnings per share down 18% to Rp 199
- Unit car sales down 21% and motorcycles down 19%
- Lower contribution from all segments except Heavy Equipment and Mining
"Astra’s earnings in the first half were lower in the face of reduced domestic consumption, competition in the car sector and lower commodity prices in Indonesia. While the timing of a recovery is uncertain, our businesses are well positioned once momentum is regained, and remain soundly underpinned by the strength of our balance sheets."

[greengiraffe]

In line with 1Q trend - no big surprises really. However continued weaknesses in Rupiah will result in further negativity in light for light Astra comparisons.

JC&C can expect a boost from new associate contributions via its newly acquired 24.9% stake in Siam City Cement and enlarged share capital will be reflected from 3Q15 results.

Trading Vested
Wrong Term Liao
GG

http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...uddies.com

PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK 2015 FIRST HALF FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Highlights
- Net earnings per share down 18% to Rp 199
- Unit car sales down 21% and motorcycles down 19%
- Lower contribution from all segments except Heavy Equipment and Mining
"Astra’s earnings in the first half were lower in the face of reduced domestic consumption, competition in the car sector and lower commodity prices in Indonesia. While the timing of a recovery is uncertain, our businesses are well positioned once momentum is regained, and remain soundly underpinned by the strength of our balance sheets."

[rayleen88]

today dropped more than 3%!

[CityFarmer]

today dropped more than 3%!

A reminder. One-liner post, focuses only on price movement, is highly discouraged.

Thanks

Regards
Moderator

[greengiraffe]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/JCC%20HY...eID=362719

31st July 2015
JARDINE CYCLE & CARRIAGE LIMITED
2015 HALF YEAR FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND DIVIDEND ANNOUNCEMENT
Highlights
• Underlying earnings per share down 12%
• Lower rupiah earnings in Astra further reduced on translation into US dollars
• Improved performance from Direct Motor Interests
• 24.9% interest acquired in Siam City Cement for US$615 million
• US$749 million rights issue fully subscribed

DPS US$0.18

[greengiraffe]

September 1, 2015 3:13 am
Indonesia’s Joko Widodo struggles to extend power base
Avantika Chilkoti in Jakarta

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[Image: b7e0911e-5d0d-427d-95d8-cd5afe9dc619.img]©Reuters
When Joko Widodo, a former furniture salesman and small-town mayor, swept to victory in last year’s polls, many Indonesians expected a rush of economic reforms and better governance in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
Now, however, there are growing concerns that the country’s first leader from outside the political and military elite is struggling to build a power base and balance his influence with that of the Jakarta establishment.

“After 10 months in power you should have more authority,” says Achmad Sukarsono, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy. “We can see this in the implementation stages of the infrastructure drive — without him having political authority, people on the ground just don’t follow him, they ignore him.”
The president’s popularity ratings have dwindled asgrowth has dropped below 5 per cent, planned infrastructure projects fail to break ground and government spending remains weak.
A survey in June by Jakarta-based researchers Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting suggested 56 per cent of Indonesians were dissatisfied with Mr Widodo’s performance.
The new administration has delivered few major reforms since controversial fuel subsidy cuts late last year, and in spite of Mr Widodo’s push for ministers to accelerate disbursement, Jakarta spent just 11 per cent of the $22bn allocated for infrastructure projects this year in the first six months, according to Eurasia Group estimates.
Amid waning public optimism, the president has made a series of announcements aimed at reinforcing his authority amid the strict hierarchy of Javanese culture.
A long-awaited decision to reshuffle his cabinet has brought his most trusted adviser, Luhut Pandjaitan, into a powerful post and put experienced policymakers, such as former central bank governor Darmin Nasution, in top economic roles.
“The reshuffle itself might have given people some hope,” says Wellian Wiranto, an economist at OCBC Bank. “He [Mr Widodo] came in bearing quite a lot of expectations, as with anyone being elected, but the reality on the ground has been a lot more tricky than even he himself expected.”
Mr Widodo also lampooned his critics ahead of Independence Day in August, blaming “the erosion of a culture of mutual respect” and “a web of egos” for holding back the administration.
Meanwhile, a proposed amendment to Indonesia’s criminal code that bans insulting the president has surprised campaign groups, who saw Mr Widodo as a populist leader breaking away from the country’s authoritarian past.
[Image: d08d0cd6-4fc9-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.img]
“He’s a mainstream ordinary Indonesian citizen from the mainstream ethnic group, from the mainstream religion,” says Mr Sukarsono. “And mainstream Indonesia is not socially progressive.”
Political analysts say Mr Widodo’s main opposition comes from within his own Democratic party of Indonesia-Struggle (PDI-P), and chairperson Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s first president.
The PDI-P matriarch used a party conference in April to demand members, including the president, follow her orders. Last week she recommended the dissolution of Indonesia’s Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), the centre of Mr Widodo’s anti-graft campaign.
Paul Rowland, a Jakarta-based analyst, says Ms Megawati also influences Mr Widodo’s policy decisions and is eager to pass political power on to her daughter.
“Megawati has been far more intensely involved than anyone would have predicted,” he says. “Rhetorically, she hasn’t been very supportive and . . . she’s certainly contributing to the environment of economic nationalism.”
This is the first time the president of Indonesia is not the strongest man. It is a completely new situation where both sides have to learn how to deal with each other
- Philips Vermonte, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr Widodo’s appointment to his refreshed cabinet of Rizal Ramli, a former economic minister, is one sign that people close to Megawati continue to hold sway.
As the president builds political backing, there are also signs the army is slowly gaining power almost 20 years after it lost its foothold when the dictator Suharto was ousted.
Amid conflict with the police, Mr Widodo broke with tradition to elect an army representative rather than the head of the air force to lead the country’s military, and has given the army new roles in areas including control of drug abuse.
Some fear the president is trying to build a strongman image, donning military fatigues and keeping former generals at his side. But Philips Vermonte, a political analyst at Indonesia’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, says Mr Widodo is simply testing support from those around him — both within his party and in the military — as he tries to build a support base of his own.
“This is the first time the president of Indonesia is not the strongest man,” he says. “It is a completely new situation where both sides have to learn how to deal with each other.”