28-07-2012, 08:41 AM
Fishing grounds can be depleted quickly within matters of a few years..
how will happen to this company? close shop? find a new fishing ground?
unsustainable...i think
how will happen to this company? close shop? find a new fishing ground?
unsustainable...i think
(27-07-2012, 06:35 PM)yanziyang Wrote: Research report from DMG:
Trimming our FY13 earnings by 7%. China Fishery (CFG) is raising US$300m through Senior Notes at interest rate of 9.75% pa. The net proceeds will likely be used for (1) prepayment of long-term supply agreements (LSAs) estimated to cost between US$145m – US$174m, as well as (2) repayment of debt which is estimated at US$117m. We believe the net impact will dilute FY13 earnings by 7% to US$141m. We are positive on CFG for its North Pacific operation which has a strong track record of profitability. Key risk stems from its execution in the South Pacific. Currently trading at 4.7x FY13 P/E, CFG appears attractive compared to its five year historical mean of 9x. Maintain BUY with lower TP of S$1.00 (from S$1.20 previously) based on 6x FY13 P/E.
Proceeds to be used for new LSA and debt repayment. CFG intends to use the proceeds for prepayment of its 4th LSA. Its 4th LSA is currently contracted under a daily fee but negotiations for a prepayment option are ongoing. CFG also intends to use the proceeds to repay US$117 of loans due this year.
No financial impact expected on new LSA terms (from VOA terms). CFG has replaced its four vessel operating agreements (VOAs) with long-term supply agreements (LSAs). We understand that this should not have significant financial impact to CFG as the underlying commercial terms remain substantially unchanged. Replacing the VOAs with LSAs mainly reduces CFG’s role in providing assistance to operations of the fishing vessels.
Valuations attractive trading at 4.7x FY13 P/E. We think valuations appear attractive with CFG currently trading at 4.7x FY13 P/E. Our TP of S$1.00 is based on FY13 P/E of 6x, which is 28% lower than its peer average of 8.3x, and a 33% discount to its five year historical average P/E of 9x Maintain BUY.
(vested)