2013 Portfolio Performance

[Stocker]

After reading this thread, I decide to keep a proper record starting 2014. Will share my performance by end of 2014 .
As usual some even do well in bear market or otherwise. Some was made a bankrupt in a bull market.
Happy NY and prosperous 2014 to all buddies.

[chialc88]

show me a trader record, and I will show you a good trader...Alexander Elder.

What's your reason to buy...to accumulate and to sell.

Are you buying at a good entry point? or at the mid point or a bad entry point?

Are you selling at a good exit point or not?

How do you grade your trade?

A famous trader locked himself in his bank vault every new year (one night only lar) and touch and feel his wealth and reflect on his trading record as celebration...
He is non other than ______




A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

[godjira1]

show me a trader record, and I will show you a good trader...Alexander Elder.

What's your reason to buy...to accumulate and to sell.

Are you buying at a good entry point? or at the mid point or a bad entry point?

Are you selling at a good exit point or not?

How do you grade your trade?

A famous trader locked himself in his bank vault every new year (one night only lar) and touch and feel his wealth and reflect on his trading record as celebration...
He is non other than ______




A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

i was trained as an oil trader in a very old school way (at Shell). It's not a well-known fact but much of the profit from Shell Oil came from its trading operations, which is really its way of juicing up its returns from assets as it is trading from a position of strength (superior balance sheet, massive information flow, ability to do judicious vendor finance, etc).

The level of discipline required is quite different from the "wheeling and dealing" we see portrayed in media/tv/newspapers, etc. We all had journals (and I kept this discipline even today) where we would pen down our trading thesis, rationale, stops/targets, critically important assumptions that we can constantly check. "Firing from the hip" is simply not encouraged.

Some people tell me they trade for a living, and it's like "I buy USDJPY because it looks cheap" with very little justification, stop lvls, assumptions to constantly go by, etc. That is closer to Baccarat at MBS/RWS.

[valuebuddies]

I don't really check my portfolio performance, but overall I think 2013 was not so bad, honestly it is so much better than the prior years where I have lots of junk stocks in my portfolios, thanks to all sifus and VB for your analysis in this forum!!

[kazukirai]

You are looking at a small sample size. Try sampling people in the classes below:

Completely agree. And the average Value Buddy poster tends to NOT be very representative of the larger investment/trading community.

[felixleong]

STI Highlights of 2013

Because of their sheer size, the 30 companies of the STI make up more than half of the
market capitalisation of Singapore’s stock market. Like the stock market, these companies
are diverse in terms of their geographical reach, relevant business sectors and the years
that they have been serving us with products and services.

During the year, the STI held most of the relative strong gains of 2012 and had generated a
total return of 2.6% as of the Friday close.

Five best performing STI stocks

The five strongest stocks of the Straits Times Index (STI) in the 2013 year up to Friday each
represented a different sector. This was different from 2012, where four of the five best
performing stocks for that year represented the Real Estate sector. Hence, the diversity
element of the stock market was a highlight of the year.

The five best performing STI stocks in 2013 through to Friday and respective total returns
were:

Thai Beverage (+38.5%);

SIA Engineering (+19.3%);

DBS Group (+18.5%)

Starhub (+18.5%); and

ComfortDelgro (+15.9%).

The stock that posted the highest price gains over the year was Thai Beverage, which was
also added to the STI during in March 2013. The five most laggard stocks of the STI over
the year were City Developments (C09,-25.4%), Jardine Cycle & Carriage (C07,-24.6%),
Capitaland (C31,-18.1%), Golden Agri Resources (E5H,-16.9%) and Hongkong Land
Holdings (H78,-13.9%).


My View:

It seems that picking the type of stocks to include in your portfolio makes a big difference.

If one were to passively invest in the index, such as the STI ETF. One would only had made a return of about 2.6%.

Investors that held defensive stocks seem to have done well this year, given that out of the top 5 blue chips, we had SIA ENG, Starhub and Comfort Delgro.

Whereas property which had a great run last year became the dog for this year, with HkLand CapLand and CityDev among the worst index performers.

[CY09]

Cpitaland and HK land were in the top 5 performers for 2012 if memory serves me right. "Te five best performing STI stocks over 2012 were CapitaMalls Asia (JS8, +72.1%), CapitaLand (C31, +67.4%), Global Logistics Properties (MC0, +58.4%), Fraser and Neave (F99, +55.8%) and Hong Kong Land (H78, +54.4%). "

My view is that the market rotate the sectors which will hold the best gains. Rarely has it always been the same sector for consecutive years.

[felixleong]

Yeah I strongly agree with that.

Probably in 2012 these property counters had too much of a run and became overvalued.
When the tapering fears came, they got sold down so hard.

[GPD]

Hi all,

I tried to compute my XIRR as well and it does took me a while to get it right. However, the XIRR can be sensitive to the cashflow event even if end of the day two investors may ended up with the same profit. For example, two investors A and B has the same capital investment planned but A cashed out some at some point while B holds on till the end of the year. Both generated profit of $1k on the same investment. The XIRR of A is 20.6% while B is 15.5%. If B holdings is worth $11,325 at the end it will have the same XIRR as A but B's profit will be 32.5% higher.

Example
Date A B
01-Jan -1000 -1000 invested
02-Mar -2000 -2000 invested
15-May -1000 -1000 invested
18-May -1000 -1000 invested
17-Jun -5000 -5000 invested
06-Aug 3000 0 cashed out
04-Nov 3000 0 cashed out
31-Dec 5000 11000 holdings
Profit 1000 1000
XIRR 20.6% 15.5%

I not saying here that XIRR is not a good performance measure but it can be quite sensitive to when cash transactions took place (or maybe that the whole idea?) but still someone who 1% gain for a month and do nothing for the 11 months will have a XIRR of 12%. I think a single indicator can hardly tell the whole story and a few more can give a wholier picture.

My XIRR is 25.5% (based on today closing price) but return on invested money is only about 9.9%.

[smallcaps]

Hi all,

I tried to compute my XIRR as well and it does took me a while to get it right. However, the XIRR can be sensitive to the cashflow event even if end of the day two investors may ended up with the same profit. For example, two investors A and B has the same capital investment planned but A cashed out some at some point while B holds on till the end of the year. Both generated profit of $1k on the same investment. The XIRR of A is 20.6% while B is 15.5%. If B holdings is worth $11,325 at the end it will have the same XIRR as A but B's profit will be 32.5% higher.

Example
Date A B
01-Jan -1000 -1000 invested
02-Mar -2000 -2000 invested
15-May -1000 -1000 invested
18-May -1000 -1000 invested
17-Jun -5000 -5000 invested
06-Aug 3000 0 cashed out
04-Nov 3000 0 cashed out
31-Dec 5000 11000 holdings
Profit 1000 1000
XIRR 20.6% 15.5%

I not saying here that XIRR is not a good performance measure but it can be quite sensitive to when cash transactions took place (or maybe that the whole idea?) but still someone who 1% gain for a month and do nothing for the 11 months will have a XIRR of 12%. I think a single indicator can hardly tell the whole story and a few more can give a wholier picture.

My XIRR is 25.5% (based on today closing price) but return on invested money is only about 9.9%.

Yep if want portfolio return then should compute the xirr based on portfolio which includes the cash holdings. Meaning the xirr is computed based on capital injections/withdrawals from the portfolio and not directly based on buy/sell transactions