2013: Stock markets at highs but can they do it again next year?

[Boon]

2013: Stock markets at highs but can they do it again next year?
By Jamie Robertson
Presenter, BBC World News

Well, it all seems fine and dandy when you look at the numbers: the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 22%, the S&P 500 gained 25% and the Nasdaq up 33%.

In Europe, the FTSE was up 10% and the Dax 22% higher. Even Greece rose 27%.

And just take a look at Japan: a 58% rise in the Nikkei. From the major share indexes, it looks like we can draw a line under the global financial crisis and say it started in 2008 and ended in 2013. Five bad years we can say goodbye to.

Well, maybe................................................................

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25457300

[brattzz]

but all these are artifically prop up by all the easy money, QEs.. (US/EU/Japan..)

When QEs stops... then we see the true-value...

[CY09]

From 2 Jan till now, STI is down 1.3%. So to many investors (esp those investing in STI index), they do not share the joy of having "market highs".

I rmb previously at the end of 2012, we were asked to predict where the STI will be. Afraid many of us were wrong, looking back.

[chialc88]

mmm....
a quick glance at my portfolio...
bluechip drop (quite a big %)
small and mid cap go up quite a good %

what could be the reason?


A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

[felixleong]

I think blue chips have not been doing well because of the fear of tapering,
as blue chips are largely owned by institutional investors, we have witness the wave of hot money leaving Asia and returning to US
(resulting in STI flat for the year and US up over 20% for the year)

small cap and mid cap stocks are owned by the locals and since institutional investors have certain restrictions (example can only invest in large cap stocks), the retreat of hot money has not affected small and mid caps.

[gutman]

OSK-DMG thinks the Singapore market will roar in 2014.

OSK-DMG says S'pore will roar in 2014 and names its top stock picks

Terence Wong, CFA, research head, OSK-DMG
Analysts: Terence Wong, CFA, and the Singapore Research Team

In the last few years, clients have been commenting that the Singapore market has little to offer. Many funds had underweighted Singapore, which on hindsight was a good move.

Between 2010 and 2013, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand roared ahead with total gains of 72-103%. Singapore, on the other end of the scale, eked out gains of a mere 10% in four years, not enough to beat the inflation rate.

Even Malaysia, which is largely seen as a defensive market, has done way better than Singapore.

Indeed, Singapore stock market prospects seemed to have dimmed compared to other parts of Asean and investors have been flocking to other markets in the world that look more appealing.

In 2013, while the regional markets flat-lined, the US markets charted new highs. During the 4-year period, the total returns for the US markets were at least five times better than Singapore’s.

In view of the country’s sound fundamentals, reasonable valuations and the prospect of Singapore being a safe haven, we are staking our bets on the Singapore stock market making a comeback in 2014.

Flight to safety: Stable politics and currency. Politics will be a key factor influencing some of the regional markets, particularly Indonesia and Thailand.

Indonesia will be holding its elections next year, while Thailand - also due to hold its polls in February 2014 - is currently facing a political quagmire that can potentially cripple growth, as seen in 2010.

Given the region’s less stable political environment and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s quantitative easing (QE) possibly dealing a blow to the currencies of the emerging markets in the ASEAN region, the SGD is likely to be the last bastion of strength and stability in the region.

The strong Singapore dollar should attract foreign funds that have parked their money in other ASEAN markets.

The STI is trading at a 13.2x forward P/E, which compares favourably against the 5-year average of 14.2x. In terms of P/BV, the STI is trading at 1.3x, below the 5-year average of 1.44x.

Small caps rock! While the blue chips are expected to deliver decent returns, what looks more interesting are the small caps.

The small caps under our coverage are currently trading at 9x FY14 P/Es and are enjoying growth rates exceeding 20%, vs the large caps’ 14x and mid caps’ 15x FY14 P/Es.

Construction sector and S-chips, both of which are largely in the small caps space, should see a pickup in investor interest.

Our Top Picks are DBS, Ezion, Eu Yan Sang, First Resources, Keppel REIT, King Wan, Lian Beng, Midas Holdings, MTQ, Nam Cheong, OSIM International, Sembcorp Marine, ST Engineering, and Yangzijiang.

[gutman]

It seems that there is a growing class of experts predicting the market to move higher from here.

Are we entering bull phase 3?


http://www.halal-u.com/singapore-equitie...lding.html

[opmi]

"Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." - Sir John Templeton.

[brattzz]

2014 to be Bull for STI?

after 1Q 2014, would be a clearer picture?

[brattzz]

1Q2014 - STI - 3244!!
Holding STRONG! trading sideways still!!