Fed to scale back bond buying

[HitandRun]

In my experience many economist can explain to you what HAD happened, but they cannot tell you what will happen. That's why my favourite economist is Keynes, not because of his pump priming ideas, but because he is actually a pragmatic economist, an oxymoron for most.

Bro

I think you live in a very clearly demarcated world then. E.g. AFAIK, the origins, causes and factors relating to the GFC are still the basis of much debate.....

[specuvestor]

You are still talking about the past and debates Most of what need to be said had been said

For sure we should learn from history but end of the day we skate to where the pluck will be, not where it has been. Difference between finance and accounting is that the former is more interested in the future, the latter in the past, though the skill sets are not that different.

I don't live in a demarcated world... I live in a world where we make reasonable guesstimates as best as possible and solve problems, rather than pinpoint faults. And for that I think the US resolve their problem much better than say EU or Japan. Bernanke studies the history but his solutions are unprecedented. The Americans has the tenacity to move on rather than be baggaged.

[HitandRun]

Bro

I'm happy for you that you do not live in a world of doubt ..... whereas I'm still merely a student. In my world, there is no absolute truth, just multiple interpretations of it. Personally, I find history, especially financial ones, very fascinating.

P.S. I very much doubt the Americans have anything to gloat about, although it remains very much a mystery to me what the end game will be...

[specuvestor]

From your posts, I reckon you should be a good student.

There's a fine line between skeptical and cynical I believe in multi-discipline and multi-interpretations, depending on your interest and perspective. Despite being a history student and a finance professional, I always know and acknowledge there is limitations to these "tools". And always remembering that to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail. We can be jailed within our discipline.

History gives a good guide and lessons, and in order to skate to the pluck, we need to know the historical trajectory as well But it is just ONE aspect. So I always try to look at things multi-faceted and not dismiss anything plausible. I enjoy discussions because it helps me think better cognitively and learn something: either new insights or the guy is smoking

I doubt Americans are gloating but they have a strong culture of moving forward. What does that mean? It means that though they have been kicking the can down the road, they are actually MOVING down the road, and picking up the pieces as they go. They don't pause and willing to take risk as they go along which makes them continually progressing. QE itself is a big experiment and risk that the admin is willing to take to move forward. Contrast that with say Japan or ECB's Trichet. I think this is one of their core strength in their culture.

Though u are right that the end game might be messy, but they are willing to take the risk, and I concur, because the alternative is even less palatable, which many people don't realise.

[CityFarmer]

From your posts, I reckon you should be a good student.

There's a fine line between skeptical and cynical I believe in multi-discipline and multi-interpretations, depending on your interest and perspective. Despite being a history student and a finance professional, I always know and acknowledge there is limitations to these "tools". And always remembering that to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail. We can be jailed within our discipline.

History gives a good guide and lessons, and in order to skate to the pluck, we need to know the historical trajectory as well But it is just ONE aspect. So I always try to look at things multi-faceted and not dismiss anything plausible. I enjoy discussions because it helps me think better cognitively and learn something: either new insights or the guy is smoking

I doubt Americans are gloating but they have a strong culture of moving forward. What does that mean? It means that though they have been kicking the can down the road, they are actually MOVING down the road, and picking up the pieces as they go. They don't pause and willing to take risk as they go along which makes them continually progressing. QE itself is a big experiment and risk that the admin is willing to take to move forward. Contrast that with say Japan or ECB's Trichet. I think this is one of their core strength in their culture.

Though u are right that the end game might be messy, but they are willing to take the risk, and I concur, because the alternative is even less palatable, which many people don't realise.

Well said. I do have trust on the resilience of US economy.

"Multi-discipline and multi-interpretations", Yes, I concur.

It is like a jigsaw puzzle, one piece at a time, and full picture will emerge when more right pieces are placed on right location...

[yeokiwi]

US on decline?? I think they are getting stronger and stronger daily.
The inability of the rest of the world to innovate above US and replace US technologically will mean that the world will have to depend on US for a long long time.

I am not sure. I think even after 20 years, I will still be using Intel processors + US operating systems + US software + cloud services from US.

and watching Hollywood movies....

[specuvestor]

The largest auto market and luxury market is already in China.

For sure like I posted b4 US is not going to give up its dominance overnight. I am sure you are right in the next 20 years but I doubt they will be as dominant as now. This kind of stuff will take a generation. It takes more than a decade for technological transition for eg VCD to DVD or Vinyl to Cassettes, not to mention power transitions. Humans are inherently short term and impatient.

But if RMB is going to break USD hegemony on reserves, we will see a new world order emerging. That is why though it was VERY risky, US prefer USSR to disintegrate. LKY discussed this in his book that Deng could see the vested interest... the June 4th students couldn't see the bigger picture. After 20 years history will be judge.

In 20 years time we will look back and see what a watershed 2 decades we live in

[HitandRun]

US on decline?? I think they are getting stronger and stronger daily.....

Well, I guess it also depends on your definition of being on the decline. In terms of culture, one would expect the effects to be rather long lasting, e.g. one can still see Roman columns in the architecture design of some buildings but it would be quite difficult to identify someone who claims to be a Roman....

[yeokiwi]

US on decline?? I think they are getting stronger and stronger daily.....

Well, I guess it also depends on your definition of being on the decline. In terms of culture, one would expect the effects to be rather long lasting, e.g. one can still see Roman columns in the architecture design of some buildings but it would be quite difficult to identify someone who claims to be a Roman....

Well, yes. I am looking more on the dependency of our life on countries. For the past ten years, our life or at least my life is more and more reliant on the technologies that are developed by US and there is no alternative to it.
From the economy point of view, US government is saddled with huge debt and their inflexibility in turning the situation around but their local economy is generating intellectual properties at such a pace that outstrips the rest of the world.

China is not even an alternative at this point. They are just a big factory for the world which can be replaced by many countries in this world.

The route of China is likely to be similar to Japan. They will grow at rapid pace but will eventually hit a bottom neck when they almost reach the living standard of US.(I am not sure whether they can do it looking at their demographics and political situation)

Although it may be to the ire of Singaporeans, the liberal immigration policy of US and their ability to accommodate talents from foreign origins do help them to develop their country's technology edge significantly. Not to mention their universities' places are much sought after by all in the world.

China, on the other hand, will always be only Chinese. And, their population will start to drop in 20 years times..