2nd Chance Properties

[CityFarmer]

you can't think like that.

warrant is a cheap/low-risk bet on the prospects of 2nd chance properties.

the capital outlay for 100lots of warrant is S$2,800. The most you can lose is the S$2,800. the upside is unlimited.

Your view is correct, but in-complete.

In risk/reward analysis, the probability should be taken into consideration. Otherwise, S$1 bet on Toto is good buy, the most you can lose is the S$1, the upside is almost un-limited (limited only by total bets)

The probability of SecondChance share price to reach $0.40 and above in next 5 years? I am not sure, after consider the dilution every year with scrip dividend and existing warrants.

[freedom]

you can't think like that.

warrant is a cheap/low-risk bet on the prospects of 2nd chance properties.

the capital outlay for 100lots of warrant is S$2,800. The most you can lose is the S$2,800. the upside is unlimited.

Your view is correct, but in-complete.

In risk/reward analysis, the probability should be taken into consideration. Otherwise, S$1 bet on Toto is good buy, the most you can lose is the S$1, the upside is almost un-limited (limited only by total bets)

The probability of SecondChance share price to reach $0.40 and above in next 5 years? I am not sure, after consider the dilution every year with scrip dividend and existing warrants.

if one toto ticket can be used for any time in 5 years, I would buy toto.

the duration is also important, otherwise, people will not lose money in cash warrants issued by investment banks.

[CityFarmer]

if one toto ticket can be used for any time in 5 years, I would buy toto.

the duration is also important, otherwise, people will not lose money in cash warrants issued by investment banks.

You can buy the same set of number for 5 years if you want. I believe Singapore Pools will not disallow that.

Twice a week, so 52x2=104, so at most lose the S$104 per year, S$520 for 5 years, cheaper than buying the warrant.

I agree duration is also important. It will impact on the probability in consideration, which i believe already been factored in

[freedom]

I think we are looking at different directions.

in your earlier post, you said that the 0.028 + 40 cents exercise price indicates that market is optimistic about prospects of the company.

my argument is that it is no necessary because the leverage premium itself could push the warrant above market price already.

I am not saying that people should buy the warrant to bet, that would be risky.

[CityFarmer]

I think we are looking at different directions.

in your earlier post, you said that the 0.028 + 40 cents exercise price indicates that market is optimistic about prospects of the company.

my argument is that it is no necessary because the leverage premium itself could push the warrant above market price already.

I am not saying that people should buy the warrant to bet, that would be risky.

OK. i understand.

In simple term, i said in value investment point of view, the warrant does not seem attractive, and you said it may still attractive to "speculators" due to leverage, although you do not support speculation.

[CityFarmer]

I am expecting first and final dividend of 3.3 cts, dividend yield of 8.6% @ S$3.85 (w/ free bonus warrant)

The actual dividend declared is nil for FY2012.

Looking into the report, nothing seem blocking the company to sustain the dividend distribution.

Is the board think a pause is necessary, after the bonus warrant award recently?

or to reward shareholder with another mean?

IMO, it is irrational to do anything now beside waiting.

P.S, the board share buy-back on the next day, total 3,512,000 share in a single day.

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

[YWT]

I am expecting first and final dividend of 3.3 cts, dividend yield of 8.6% @ S$3.85 (w/ free bonus warrant)

The actual dividend declared is nil for FY2012.

Looking into the report, nothing seem blocking the company to sustain the dividend distribution.

Is the board think a pause is necessary, after the bonus warrant award recently?

or to reward shareholder with another mean?

IMO, it is irrational to do anything now beside waiting.

P.S, the board share buy-back on the next day, total 3,512,000 share in a single day.

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

I called up their IR and was told that they are extending their financial year till AUG which is when they would be declaring the dividend.

[CityFarmer]

I am expecting first and final dividend of 3.3 cts, dividend yield of 8.6% @ S$3.85 (w/ free bonus warrant)

The actual dividend declared is nil for FY2012.

Looking into the report, nothing seem blocking the company to sustain the dividend distribution.

Is the board think a pause is necessary, after the bonus warrant award recently?

or to reward shareholder with another mean?

IMO, it is irrational to do anything now beside waiting.

P.S, the board share buy-back on the next day, total 3,512,000 share in a single day.

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

I called up their IR and was told that they are extending their financial year till AUG which is when they would be declaring the dividend.

Thanks for the update.

Now I recalled they had shifted the FY, due to hectic period during Hari Raya season.

[CityFarmer]

The management did share buy-back on today, total 940,000 share @ 0.38

http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

The recent two (2) share bought-back is quite substantial compare with previous ones.

[camelking]

i guess the management is trying to maintain the current share price so that warrant holders will be interested to convert their warrants at exercise price of 32 cents.
There are 147m worth of such warrants which will expire in Sep 2013 ie slightly more than one year from now.

As at June 2012, total loans for the company is around 48m. Assuming all warrants are converted, it will raise around 47m worth of cash....almost enough to pay off the loans..... ...
Based on cash flow statement for june 12 and 11, operating cash inflow is around 15m or so....

Interesting....

Vested since long time ago......