Poll: It's never too late to begin....
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of course. why are u asking?
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mmm... the days are getting shorter...
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A journey of thousand miles begins with a single step 千里之行,始于足下。
13-09-2017, 10:10 PM,
Post: #261
Rainbow  MM 9 years numbers (credit: Kyith)
MM 9 years numbers (credit: Kyith)

Good morning valuebuddies.


Yes, I peeked at bwl posts today and I just wanted to make a point that bwl is illegal.

Q: Ai yo, don't says that.
A: why not.

Q: It's your assumption wow.
A: why do you says that?

Q: how can bwl be illegal?
A: how not?

Q: how can?
A: seriously, you don't know?

Q: yes, I don't think so.
A: ok, tell me. what's the official storyline on who and what is selling DR'S Secret in China?

Q: Official?
A: yes, tell me. who is selling DR'S Secret in China?

Q: Those shops owner.
A: Yes. tell me, are they on commission scheme?

Q: what do you mean?
A: ai yo, the famous 663 lar. don't act blur lay.

Q: of course, they are.
A: sure?

Q: of course, this is the reason why DR'S Secret is selling like hot cake.
A: is this legal?

Q: what do you mean?
A: legitimate business.  that's what I meant.

Q: to bwl or to the shop owner?
A: what's the diff?

Q: to bwl - they don't really control the shop owner.
A: so, to bwl is what?

Q: no control means not my problem.
A: ok. then to the shop owner?

Q: shop owner had not registered under direct selling. they are free to do what they want.
A: then?

Q: then, both bwl and shop owner are legitimate business.
A: ok. I rest my case.

Both hold hands and drink Starbucks 1-for-1 coffee.



MM 9 years numbers (credit: Kyith)
looks very different from 5 years numbers from Brian.

In Brian's 5 years number (2012 - 2016),
all the numbers are perfect!

constant, yearly incremental revenue, GP, NP, cash
with constant ROE 25% and zero debt.

Kyith's 9 years number (2007 to 2016),
projected a completely opposite stories.

Instead of showing in a chart (which will dilute the chaotic situation),
let me do a narrative of it's numbers (rev, GP, NP, cash in general).

We had a good and strong 2007 
going up to 2008,
then drop drastically to 2009 and
then climb up strongly to 2010 and
then up in 2010, 
up in 2011 and 
then down in 2012 
then up a bit in 2013, 
then up again in 2014, then
a big jump in 2015 and lastly
up a bit in 2016.

In once glance over my narrative or flip back to see Kyith's table,
you'll conclude that it's a erratic business and heavily influenced by market cycle.

So, let's take a pause.

Analysis #1, We rejected MM based on the facts that it's at 52 weeks and 5 years peak price.
It's PE is 14 ( aka more than 8).
It's PB is 3.8 ( aka more than 1).

Analysis #2, when we look at MM 5 year results from 2012 to 2016 (2017 if you do a simple google),
it flies by fantastic color.

Analysis #3, which looks at 9 year results from 2007 to 2016,
concluded that it's a cyclical stocks and hence can not make it again.

Between #2 and #3, one of them must be correct.

An incorrect analysis will either caused a missed opportunity (small matters)
or big losses when the cycle turned (10 years of saving gone).

Thinking, thinking, thinking...
Centuries:


感恩

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14-09-2017, 09:54 PM,
Post: #262
Rainbow  9 year numbers looked erratic and cyclical. 5 year numbers looks fantastic. Why?
9 year numbers looked erratic and cyclical.  5 year numbers looks fantastic. Why?

After some thought, could it be the MM had cross a Chasm?

Perfect!


感恩

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17-09-2017, 05:09 PM, (This post was last modified: 17-09-2017, 05:31 PM by chialc88. Edit Reason: Look at her shoes... I wanted one too! )
Post: #263
Rainbow  微机械 Micro Mechanics Holdings from 2002 to 2016
Good morning, valuebuddies,
The birds are still chirping and the sun is out.
Looking at all the booming flowers really warmed my heart.
White, yellow, orange, peach, pink, red and even the morning glory's purple really makes me smile.

I thought of copying what Brian and Kyith and create my own spreadsheet from 2002 to 2016.

Of course, our numbers looks very similar but with subtle differences:
[Image: uc?export=view&id=0B_rJrOUj766BNTVVdlhoMk5ONVk]

A quick interpretation of the numbers from 2002 to 2016:
1. Revenue
    Strong revenue grow from $15m to $51m
    really impressive!
    the wavy wavy 2007 and 2009 looks insignificant.
2. Pre-tax Profit
    Pristine record!
    Never see this before!
3. Pre-tax Profit Margin  (must be double digit)
    Pass - double digit except 2002 and 2009.
4. Net Profit Margin
    Excellent - double digit except 2002 and 2009.

(BTW, I thought a decent company should have double digit margin so that when there is a economy downturn, it still can sustain a single digit NP aka instead of reporting loss)

5. Liability to Asset Ratio 
    Perfect score.

(Of course, it's too conservative and defected the purpose of incorporating a company. But, its Micro Mechanics unique way of aiming for zero debt, so be it.)

6. Dividend
2003 - 0.5
2004 - 1.5
2005 - 3.0
2006 - 3.5
2007 - 5.0
2008 - 5.0
2009 - 2.0
2010 - 3.0
2011 - 3.0
2012 - 3.0
2013 - 3.0
2014 - 3.0
2015 - 5.0
2016 - 6.0
2017 - 8.0

Heart


感恩

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18-09-2017, 11:07 PM,
Post: #264
Rainbow  What a fantastic weekend in Singapore!
What a fantastic weekend in Singapore!

More to come...




I hate to buy stocks at 52 weeks high, let alone at 5 years high or all time high.

From 2002 to 2016, MM looks good.
From 2007 to 2016, MM looks erratic.
From 2012 to 2016, MM looks great!

From erratic, good to great, what is the real MM?


Definitely we are concern about it's erratic performance especially 2009
when it's revenue and earning drop to record low.

Revenue - definitely impacted by the cyclical nature of semicon.
Earning - what had happened? could it due to newly acquired CMA factory in US?


There are a few strange aims or principles of MM that I think make it stand out from it's competitor.

First thing first, MM aims to be zero debt.

Rationale is so that when there is a economic down turn, it do not need to be concern about paying down bank instalment.

Similarly, MM choose to own it's properties instead of leasing.
For the same reason, when there is a economic down turn, it do not have to worry about earning enough $$$ to pay rent.

These (and more) enable MM to focus on taking care of customers, employee and shareholders instead of diverting attentions to debtors make it more resilient to the famous cyclical nature of electronic sectors. (boom/bust).
感恩

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