A journey of thousand miles begins with a single step 千里之行，始于足下。

[chialc88]

1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
Easy.
Just don't buy anything. Sure won't lose $$$.

2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
Very easy, just buy and don't sell during bear market such as in Aug 1998, Mar 2003, Feb 2009 and Jan 2016.

3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
This one is very difficult. Need to save a lot of war chest and be very very patient to wait for the bear to arrive.

4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
Very easy, just make sure you sell around Feb 1996, Dec 1999, Oct 2007 and Apr 2015.

The only question is how do you know it's BEAR?
And for those already holding tons of stocks (and without any war chest),
how do you know it's BULL?

---

An alternative to timing the market is to stay invested all the time.

This is a very difficult method and required a lot of lucks and skills.

Wish everyone doing what you love.

Enjoy:


愿天下有情人终成眷属
May all lovers live forever.

[chialc88]

时钟回转 
I wish that I could turn back the clock.

Remember a day in early July 2017...
It marked a day of great regrets in my life.

Another day had ended,
and I still can't sleep.
Remembering my yesterdays (which I had just sold my bwl)
I begin to weep  (it marked a day of great regrets in my life)

If I could have it over
Live my life again
I wouldn't change a single day.

Code:

Lying here in silence
Picture in my hand
Of a boy I still resemble
But I no longer understand
And as the tears run freely
How I realize they were the best years of my life

You might say it's just
A case of giving up
No
But without these memories where is the love
Where is the love

Why can't I turn back the clock
Bring the wheels of time to a stop
Back to the days
Oh no no
I remember when
Life was so good
I'd go back I'd I could
Oh oh I wouldn't change a single day
Don't let the memories slip away
I wouldn't change a single day
Don't let the memories slip away

As I noticed the amazing numbers of posts appears in bwl thread today,
I wish that I could turn back the clock
Bring the wheels of time to a stop
Back to the days when life was so much better.

I had personally benefited from all the contributions from our valuebuddies including Boon.
I'm a fool and I cannot help much.
but I am very sure that tomorrow will be a better day.

When you move your focus from competition to contribution, 
life becomes a celebration.
Never try to defeat people, just win their hearts - Buddha

宝贝 加油! 用心生活.

[chialc88]

全美世界, 世界全美From 5ER to CGN

As I pen down the daily buyback and stock purchase by bwl/Dora/Doreen/LSC,
I thought of starting a new thread to express my gratitude to valuebuddies and especially Boon in shaping my learning experience.

However, I'm mindful of the difficult decision that CY09 and weijian made to cool down the heat.

I thought, since I had been roaming here with maximum freedom, 
I could just start a new thread here with Bestworld as thread title? 
or not?

I think and think and then decided that it's not nice (to moderator).
So, instead of a new thread, it's just another ordinary post in my journey documenting down 
what I see, what I hear, what I felt.
Of course, my appreciation to all valuebuddies whom selflessly shared your great ideas.

Thank you.

---

"All stable processes we shall predict. All unstable processes we shall control." - John Von Neumann

A) Seed by the guru
Adam Khoo (AK) is a great motivator and investor.
My earliest memory of BestWorld linked back to his analysis in term of 
business, customer segment, financial, ratio and calculation of MOS.

However, my habit of not following a hot tips/stocks prevented me from dwelling into bwl 
and missed it's first glory.

After that, bwl is a forgotten stock for many years.

B) Trigger point for investigation - FY12 Boon
link
During a random exploration, my eye blink blink seeing the un-believable:
1. Share price    = SGD 18.60 cents
2. NAV            = SGD 23.27 cents
3. Debt free
4. Cash per share = SGD 13.80 cents
5. Dividend yield =      6.50 %
6. Increase Rev%  =     16.10 %
7. Increase NP%   =    556.90 %

It's actually post #5 of BWL thread.

C) Analysis and conclusion
1. Read all past year AR -> it's a fallen eagle, consumer business aka great industry to be in.
2. Watch video clips of Dora -> super friendly, excellent motivator (similar to AK), travel a lot to build funnels and distributorship
3. Read SGX recent years announcement -> Indonesia tax issues is major risk and likely reason for low stock price.  Construct my own risk assessment and concluded that it's not a issue.  Formulated my entry plan.
4. Read Dora's book and immediately sync with her vision and passion for creating 全美世界, 世界全美.

D) Buying spree 
1. Extremely low liquidity -> queue and queue and queue with SCB
2. Very boring job and really test my patients
3. Finally give up in early 2015 as it's no longer worth my effort

E) Momentum buildup in BestWorld thread in vb.com - mslee888
link
1. is bwl a MLM?
2. This is a rather innocent questions but I sense that bwl had started to cross the chasm.
3. Eureka. It had attracted the attention of the mass. 
4. With a right explanation of MLM and in particular, bwl business model,
this little traction might be the beginning of pushing a snowball down the hill.
5. For those who still do not understand bwl operating under MLM, 
do yourself a favour, read up bwl IPO or lawgazatte in MLM.

F) Take profit or buy more?
link
1. CF, weijian and Retired@52 replied #273, #279 & #286
2. Thank you very much for your input
3. weijian's view that zero cost/capital is only a "feel good" and free can be a very dangerous word, make sense
4. CF ack the mid to long-term benefit of China DS license
5. CF will review current fundamental and opportunity cost
6. Retired@52 sold 4 parts and re-invest in 4 other opportunities is a good simulation
7. I concluded that no action needed as there is no perceived risk in holding huge % in bwl and there are only one other opportunity which is more attractive than bwl.  However, as bwl still have tremendous growth, I will not take profit
8. Thank you very much and my life go back to normal 

G) grow-peak-decline cycle - d.o.g.
1. how long can this last? link
2. So what makes Best World special? link
3. Best World is in the "small" category where there is no obvious grow-peak-decline pattern but instead a wide variation in outcomes over the past 10 years. link

H) [ALERT] Financial engineering - weijian
link
1. bonus and stock split was announced and like every valuebuddies I was celebrating too
2. Do I really feel richer with the split?
3. Level 1 thinking says yes but level 2 thinking warned me that Dora is rushing for success
4. There is absolutely no need to resort to financial engineering
5. Dora should spend more time working with China team and focus on her works.
6. On Guard - I told myself and running thru various scenario ... forward planning

I) How did those PD in China being "created" under the "Export Model"? Ha-ha!
link
1. Prior to Boon's post, I was furiously reading and justifying bwl inventory for China DS/Export model
2. Scouting thru stock analyst reports, researcher DS brief, IE Singapore ppt etc
3. I paused immediately when Boon raised a innocent question on the creation of PD in China.
4. The question is not important.
5. Why did Boon end the question with Ha-ha!
6. Something is fishy...I take note and recorded the date:  12 June 2017

[brattzz]

chialc88,

why regret? u already made money from bwl, that itself is enough reason for u to be happy and smile!

any money taken off the table is good news!!

[Boon]

What could be the alternative histories of a 15 - Bagger ?
________________________________________________________
Nassim Taleb on the Notion of Alternative Histories

MARCH 12, 2014 | READING TIME: 3 MINUTES

Writing in Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Nassim Taleb hits on the notion of alternative histories.


We see what's visible and available. Often this is nothing more than randomness and yet we wrap a narrative around it. The trader who is rich must know what he is doing. A good outcome means we made the right decisions, right? Not so quick. If we were wise we would not judge performance in any field by results (outcome bias).

Taleb argues that we should judge people by the costs of the alternative, that is if history played out in another way. These “substitute courses of events are called alternative histories.”

Clearly, the quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome, but such a point seems to be voiced only by people who fail (those who succeed attribute their success to the quality of their decision).
…
One can illustrate the strange concept of alternative histories as follows. Imagine an eccentric (and bored) tycoon offering you $ 10 million to play Russian roulette, i.e., to put a revolver containing one bullet in the six available chambers to your head and pull the trigger. Each realization would count as one history, for a total of six possible histories of equal probabilities. Five out of these six histories would lead to enrichment; one would lead to a statistic, that is, an obituary with an embarrassing (but certainly original) cause of death. The problem is that only one of the histories is observed in reality; and the winner of $ 10 million would elicit the admiration and praise of some fatuous journalist (the very same ones who unconditionally admire the Forbes 500 billionaires). Like almost every executive I have encountered during an eighteen-year career on Wall Street (the role of such executives in my view being no more than a judge of results delivered in a random manner), the public observes the external signs of wealth without even having a glimpse at the source (we call such source the generator.) Consider the possibility that the Russian roulette winner would be used as a role model by his family, friends, and neighbors.
While the remaining five histories are not observable, the wise and thoughtful person could easily make a guess as to their attributes. It requires some thoughtfulness and personal courage. In addition, in time, if the roulette-betting fool keeps playing the game, the bad histories will tend to catch up with him . Thus, if a twenty-five-year-old played Russian roulette, say, once a year, there would be a very slim possibility of his surviving until his fiftieth birthday— but, if there are enough players, say thousands of twenty-five-year-old players, we can expect to see a handful of (extremely rich) survivors (and a very large cemetery).
…
The reader can see my unusual notion of alternative accounting: $ 10 million earned through Russian roulette does not have the same value as $ 10 million earned through the diligent and artful practice of dentistry. They are the same, can buy the same goods, except that one’s dependence on randomness is greater than the other.

Reality is different from roulette. First in the simplistic example above, while the result is unknown you know the odds, most of life is dealing with uncertainty. Bullets are infrequent, “like a revolver that would have hundreds, even thousands, of chambers instead of six.” After a while you forget about the bullet. You can't see the chamber and we generally think of risk in terms of what is visible.

Interestingly this is the core of the black swan problem, which is really the induction problem. No amount of evidence can allow the inference that something is true whereas one counter example can refute a conclusion. This idea is also related to the “denigration of history,” where we think things that happen to others would not happen to us.

https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2014/03...e-history/

[chialc88]

  Selamat Hari Raya Haji. 

Waking up to another bright Sunny day.
Birds still chirping and flowers booming everywhere...
red, yellow, purple, pink.

With a humble heart, 
I wanted to express my gratitude to all who had helped and guided me in my journey.

You might not aware but you had made me a better person everyday.

@Brattzz,
Its quite easy to make $$$ in stock market.
Only thing needed is not to be greedy.
Even you brought at it's peak, 
you can still make $$$ easily.
Just don't try to be greedy.

Since, it's easy to make $$$ in stock market,
then the ultimate challenge is to identify multi-baggers (instead of mealy making $$$).

My regrets come as I see bwl as a top tier business with a shinning soul.
I felt sad that I'm not able to stick with bwl and decided to sell 100% in one trx.
My emotion was strong and is stronger even today.
The only possibility for me to carry out my selling plan is to be ruthless.
No time to wait and see.
Just sell.
And, hence the regrets (even now).

My view of bwl does not change.
I only wish that Dora and her executives can make use of the remaining critical 2 months to make some adjustment.
How big or how small is not important.
Whether it's effective or not, is also not important.
Will the message affects it's business? 
Definitely will.
I am sure that it's short-term and if the message is clear and stern,
then the long-term benefits will be enormous.

bwl do not need to copy others.
bwl has what it takes to be difference from others.
It does not matter whether you achieve what you want in next 3 years or next 20 years.
It doesn't matter at all.


Just do the right things and let the stock market take care of your stock price.

Focus, Dora. 
Focus on what's important!

And, for the rest of our valuebuddies.
Enjoy a super long weekend, starting now:

[chialc88]

Good morning, value buddies.

The sun is still shining and the birds are still chirping.


With a humble heart, I would like to do a quick Level 1 analysis of the following stocks.


Thank you for reading.

#1. MM @ $ 1.525
52 weeks range of $0.83 to $1.54 means that MM is not only not cheap, 
it's at it's 52 weeks high.

Some says, 52 weeks high is good as this is a breakthru sign and stock is advancing into a unknown space aka no limit.
A quick Level 1 thinking is nonsense and I will never purchase a stock at 52 weeks high.

PE = 14 is clearly above my comfort number of 8, so another -ve
PB = 3.8 is clearly above my comfort number of < 1, so 3rd -ve

With this quick level 1 analysis, I will pass to next stock, Straco

#2. Straco @ $0.87
52 weeks range of $0.73 to $0.90 means that Straco is similar to MM.
It's not only not cheap but trading at 52 weeks peak.
Again, I will never purchase a stock at 52 weeks high (generally).

Stretched to 5 years and Straco peaked at $1.11 in May 2015.
c.f. MM which is at it's all time peak, Straco at $0.87 is not so bad.

Let see how the rest of Level 1 matrices look like:
PE = 16 -ve
PB = 3.1 -ve

Same fate as MM, quick level 1 analysis says that no-go.

#3. Singapore Shipping Corp @ S$0.29
52 weeks range 0.24 - 0.30 means SpShip is similar to MM & Straco.
It's trading at 52 weeks peak and again, I will never purchase a stock at 52 weeks high (in general).
5 years peak at 0.36... noted.

Let's see how the rest of Level 1 matrices fair:
PE = 10 - not very good but acceptable
PB = 1.1 - again, not very good but acceptable

Can consider for further investigation and accumulation at this price seems high thou.

#4. iFAST @ $0.92
52 weeks range $0.59 -$ 1.17 aka not at it's peak.
PE = 44 -ve
PB = 3 -ve

No go again.

#5. FCL @ $ 2.07
52 weeks $1.47 to $2.08 - jialat at 52 weeks peak.
5 years $1.4 to $2.08 - super jialat. similiar to MM, at atis 52 weeks peak.


Take a quick look at PE and PB:
PE = 11 - not very good but acceptable
PB = 0.87 aka < 1 ie very good

Can consider for further investigation and accumulation at this price seems high thou.

---

This is my summary:
1. MM at 52weeks and 5 years high. PE and PB not attractive. No-go
2. Straco at 52 weeks high. PE and PB not attractive. No-go
3. SpShip at 52 weeks high. PE and PB ok. Can investigate further and could consider buying at current price.
4. iFAST PE and PB not attractive. No-go
5. FCL at 52 weeks and 5 years high. PE and PB looks ok. Can investigate and consider buying at current price.

---

Questions: what's happening? why every stocks (except iFAST) is trading at 52 weeks high.
Further Q: is it a time ripe for selling?
Last Q: would there be a multi bagger in these stocks? ***I seriously think so***
Q: which one would be a multi bagger? ***your guess is as good as mine.***

Anyone can attempt the above questions.
PM me if you're shy to write here.

Thank you for reading.

The following songs is dedicated to Micro Mechanics fans:

[chialc88]

Good morning valuebuddies.

Cool weather and lots of colors booming...

Something is not correct.

Stock prices peaked.

Most of my keenly watched stocks do not have attractive PE and PB.

going backward:


One dimension numbers might not be useful.
It can only screen in undervalue stocks.

Must look into 2-D for GP, NM, Dividend.

Looks for growing trends.

Let's see.

[chialc88]

Good morning Valuebuddies.
Really appreciate all the tips and love that you give me.
Thank you very much.

I'm still learning and this is what I think about 2D financial analysis.
Let me use MM as an example: (credit: Brian)



First, the timeline captured is from 2012 to 1H2017 (5 years).  It did capture a mini crisis but I thought a 10 year will be a better representative as 10 years will include the Global financial crisis.

But, it fit the purpose for MM as an illustration.

Key financial number listed includes: Revenue, Gross Profit (GP), GP margin %, Net Profit, Net Profit margin %, ROE%, Cash Flow from operation, FCF, Cash, Debt.

These numbers covers Balance Sheet (BS), Profit and Lost Statement (P&L) and Cash Flow (CF) and more.

A quick look at 2D result for MM in last 5 years:
Revenue: consistent increase from 38m to 50m
GP:      consistent increase from 18m to 29m
GP%:     consistent increase from 46 to 56%
NP:      consistent increase from 5m to 15m
NP%:     consistent increase from 10 to 23%
ROE:     constant 25%
FCF:     range between 0.6 - 14m (lowest was 2015 due to US capex)
Cash:    consistent increase from 5m to 20m
Debt:    zero

Annual 25% of ROE without any debt means quite a major thingy (to me).
GP% of 50% resulting NP% of 10 to 23% every year also means fantastic results (to me).
Closer inspection of 2015 numbers shows that a major transformation is going on.

2017 revenue of 57m confirmed that MM managed to breakout of it's market limitation.
The new business looks like still in it's infancy.
Check it up in the next few Qtr.

So, MM is cash rich and it is reflected in it's dividend payout.
From 2012 to 2017: 3cts, 3cts, 4cts, 5cts, 6cts, 8cts
Constant growing dividend.

Q1: is it overdone/sustainable?
Q2: does it stretch beyond its limit to pay high dividend? financial engineering? 

Look at it's zero debt, growing cash level and payout ratio, you probably will reached the same conclusion as me.

MM is never cheap.
It's high PE and high PB imply that it's not a undervalue stock (by all definition).

This might be the reason why Yeo Seng Chong need to use his personal name to buy MM.

---

2D analysis of MM make sense!

Remaining counter Straco, SpShip, iFAST and FCL,
leave it to you as exercises.

[chialc88]

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