Adampak

[xlh1476]

My view is that the management would probably have foresaw this decline in the HDD demand, but does anyone know if they have been proactively searching for other sources for their products? And how soon will these take effect on the P&L etc?

[dydx]

Ckecked my bank account this morning and noted a very nice credit from Adampak's $0.02/share Final dividend. This has made my day!

Now I shall look forward to the Q2 results expected by 15Aug and the interim dividend (last FY10: $0.01/share) expected in the 1st week of Sep.

A relevant question: Can Adampak afford to pay out even higher dividends? IMHO, the answer is a definite "Yes".

[freedom]

I think the question to Adampak is not whether they can continue to pay high dividend in the next 3 -5 years, rather whether they can reduce the reliance on HDD, which the demand is going to fall, whether they can successfully diversify into another business. Sure, Adampak can pay high dividend using their cash hoard in the next 3 -5 years, what is after? they must have good profit to continue pay high dividend.

[Drizzt]

yeah i think freedom is right.

[dydx]

Nobody can be sure about the future. Adampak is a world-class producer of its own products, supplying to many world-class companies/customers, meeting global demand for their own products. And we should not under-estimate a smart, experienced and driven management's survival abilities to win new customers, grow into new customer segments, intoduce new or related products and services, etc., over time.

[dydx]

Today (3Jun11), S&P issued an update report on Adampak based on the weaker Q1-FY11 results released sometime ago....
http://research.sgx.com/reports/rpt_view.pl?id=6511

Except for marking down their FY11 full-year revenue and earning estimates mainly for conservative reason, the report essentially offers nothing new.

My own simple view is this: As Adampak is already well plugged in with so many global MNC's and prime-name customers, when demand for their products increases in the next few months - mainly driven by the seasonally higher year-end and Christmas demand - and over time, the follow-through demand for Adampak's products should come back up nicely. Over time, the world will continue to use more and more precision labels and die-cut parts, mainly because of the wonderful technology of different performance adhesives. I really don't see any reason why this steady and proven long-term historical trend should change.

[dydx]

Total Q4 (ended 1Jul11) HDD shipment volume for both Western Digital and Seagate are up nicely.....
http://www.wdc.com/wdproducts/library/co...411IIS.pdf [Western Digital; see p1]
http://www.seagate.com/docs/pdf/corporat...4_2011.pdf [Seagate; see p9]

For Western Digital, Q4-FY11 (ended 1Jul11)'s total HDD shipment volume was 53.8m units, +8.2% yoy when compared with Q4-FY10's 49.7m units; and +8.0% sequentially when compared with Q3-FY11's 49.8m units.

For Seagate, Q4-FY11 (ended 1Jul11)'s total shipment volume was 52.25m units, +11.7% yoy when compared with Q4-FY10's 46.77m units; and +7.2% sequentially when compared with Q3-FY11's 48.74m units.

As Adampak is well coupled with both Western Digital and Seagate in their global supply-chains, I suppose it is reasonable to expect the company to enjoy a healthy increase in business volume in Q2(ending 30Jun11)-FY11 from the HDD sector. We shall know when Adampak releases its Q2 results by 15Aug11.

[dydx]

Western Digital's share price has staged a strong 8.28% rebound back above the USD38 level in New York overnight (22Jul11, Friday)....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WDC+Basic+Chart&t=5d
after the company hosted an Earnings Call on 21Jul11 at 5:00 PM ET (Eastern Time is USA) and the release of the transcript afterwards....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/281047-w...urce=yahoo
following the company released its Q4 and FY11 (ended 1Jul11) full-year results on 21Jul11 after the New York market closed....
http://www.wdc.com/en/company/pressroom/...abd345eba9}

Seagate's share price has also staged a smaller 3.11% rebound to close at USD14.57 in New York overnight (22Jul11, Friday)....
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=STX+Basic+Chart&t=5d
after the company hosted an Earnings Call on 20Jul11 5:00 PM ET and the release of the transcript afterwards....
http://seekingalpha.com/article/280653-s...urce=yahoo
following the company released its Q4 and FY11 (ended 1Jul11) full-year results on 20Jul11 after the New York market closed....
http://www.seagate.com/ww/v/index.jsp?lo...48090aRCRD

From the transcrips, Western Digital is forecasting the overall HDD industry's TAM (total addressable market) to increase to 170 - 175m units in Q3-2011, vs. a TAM of approx. 165m units achieved in Q2-2011. Seagate, on the other hand, is forecasting a smaller increase for the TAM to 165 - 170m units in Q3-2011. Based on these forecasts, there is little sign that the overall HDD industry is strinking any time soon.

[dydx]

Adampak's wholly-owned Malaysian subsidiary - Aident Corporation S/B (formerly known as Adampak Graphics S/B) - has its own very nice and informative website ....
http://www.aident.com.my/about_aident.htm
From its Contact page, we can actually see clear pictures (by clinking the respective country/city locations in the map) of all of 7 production plants in the region making up the entire Adampak Group....
http://www.aident.com.my/contact2.htm

This is even better than the page from the Adampak website which only shows the pictures of 4 plants....
http://www.adampak.com.sg/ContactUs/Index.htm
It is about time that Adampak management looks into up-dating the corporate website!

[edragon]

Didn't notice the share price for awhile; $0.27 now! Could it be due to the USD at all time low?