Adampak

[julianbream]

Well, most of us may be humble folk, but I think it may be worth trying? We may also know other less humble folk (read: bigger minority shareholders we can rope in?

[sgmystique]

I am rather new to this kind of situation and so I called Primepartners Corporate Finance to ask a few questions. They confirmed that since the major shareholders (> 50% shareholding in total) have already given irrevocable undertakings, it is likely that the offer will become an unconditional offer. If so, if I accept the 42 cents, there is no turning back - I will lose my Adampak shares forever - even if the takeover is not successful (i.e., Adampak remains listed). So I think I am going to wait and see. Should we forummers meet and confer to see if we have enough to hold out against the 42 cent offer?

I am game to meeting up. Though I am quiet a small shareholder in Adampak it is really heartening to note the privatisation attempt. Many thanks to dydx for bring Adampak into my investment radar a couple of years back...

[Some-one]

The buyer Navis is a smart private equity investor, so don't expect them to pay too high a price. But Navis' offer has confirmed the high quality of Adampak's business and management, further growth potential, and great value.

The offer at $0.42/share - even though agreeable to the founding/controlling shareholders - is not really a great price! We have to bear in mind that Adampak's 31Dec12 NAV at USD42.2m and NP at USD4.894m had been 'deflated' by (1) asset write-offs and flood-related expenses totalling USD2.04m in its Thai subsidiary, and (2) sub-normal operating profits in the rest of the group due to disruption in the globl supply chain, in Q4 as a direct result of the massive floods in Thailand. We have to also bear in mind that Adampak's 31Dec12 net cash reserve balance of USD17.488m should be adjusted upwards for (1) the expected money from the pending insurance settlement for the USD2.04m loss from floods in Thailand, and (2) a big portion of the USD12.112m Trade Receivables balance which is almost fully financed by Adampak's own equity. My own calculations show Adampak has within the group B/S as much as USD26.0m in total cash and near-cash assets - or approx. $0.12/share - which Navis can strip or monetarise (including loading Adampak with fresh debts after privitisation). So one can argue that Navis is only paying $0.30/share for Adampak's future (per share) operating free cash flow, or approx. 5.7x of Adampak's per share operating FCF of approx. $0.053 in FY10 - while a historical 'high' year in Adampak's operating history, but certainly we should believe there ought to be even better years ahead.

I hope now that the whole world will know that the entire Adampak business is available - as its controlling shareholders are willing to cut a deal for themselves at $0.42 - other suitors may emerge with a better offer. Even short of that, it is always conceivable that in order to achieve a >90% acceptance level to privatise Adampak, Navis may be prepared to sweeten its offer by a few more cents - if it is the only way to get some big minority shareholders to sell.

As usual, in this kind of situation, it is important for shareholders to be informed and be patient!

If that is the case, how much do you think AdamPak should be valued at?

[honeyclover]

My own analysis for Adampak. $0.42 is just fair value.
I believe its value is worth much more.
Wish i can vote No.
But i only got 250 lots.
Very SAD >_<

[Musicwhiz]

But i only got 250 lots.

Wow that's a cool $100,000+.

Really wish I can start to scale up my capital and pump in much more into companies I have conviction in. Lots to learn from the forumers here.

All the best!

[honeyclover]

my cost price ard $0.33 brought at quite high price. Also include margin.
haiz..
spend 2 years+ researching it.

Btw $0.42 is really confirm price?
No other firms bidding?

[Some-one]

my cost price ard $0.33 brought at quite high price. Also include margin.
haiz..
spend 2 years+ researching it.

Btw $0.42 is really confirm price?
No other firms bidding?

Wow, you just earn yourself 22.5K....

So far, no other firms are bidding but I was wondering why is it still trading halt after the announcement.

[setan]

This Navis Capital had privatised my 2 cashcows. Now Adampak and in 2006 Mentor Media. Really good in searching for good cashflow target man.

[yeokiwi]

Eng Kong too.
Maybe they are reading the VB forum too haha..

[dydx]

Trading will resume tomorrow (3Apr12) at 0830 (to facilitate early inputting of orders).....
http://info.sgx.com/webcorannc.nsf/Annou...endocument

As Adampak is now trading on 'CD' basis - inclusive of a $0.01/share Final dividend for FY11 - till 7May11, shareholders who choose to sell into the market from tomorrow onwards and take money off the table will have to forgo (1) the $0.01/share dividend, and (2) the right to any upward revision of the offer price above $0.42 by Navis or any competing offer from a potential 2nd bidder.

Based on Navis' offer at $0.42/share and the pending $0.01/share dividend, I guess a rational Mr Market should be willing to price Adampak at a small discount below $0.43. If Navis chooses to mop up loose shares from the market, I suppose they should be willing to pay at least $0.42, bearing in mind the impending $0.01/share dividend as a cushion; or may be they should be willing to pay up to $0.43 - technically possible? - since technically they only pay $0.42 after accounting for the impending $0.01/share dividend.

As for me, I shall take the $0.01/share - likely the last one? - and wait for the IFA's opinion and any exciting evolution to come..