Hafary Holdings

[Louhan]

Price went down 1 bid again, seems some players determine to push the price down......

When they pushed down the price, it'll make more shareholders accepting the offer. This will ensure that the success of the partial offer.

[ValueMushroom]

The spread between offer price and current price has increase to 2.5 cents. Assume a buy commission of 0.1cents (》35lots per purchase), the expected profit has increased to 5.5% for a short holding period of 3 months. Looks more enticing than 1-2 weeks ago.

vested for value trade

[ValueMushroom]

Offer closing date: 13 Feb 2015
Cash receiving date: 23 Feb 2015 (latest)

Wow extra ang bao for this Chinese New Year

[secretinvestors]

The spread looks pretty attractive actually. I think the main risk here is what to do with the remaining shares held after the partial tender offer. Can we sell it at a profit or can the price appreciate further on the new structure with HSCB? Also, to a lesser extent, there's this small problem regarding odd lots which can be pretty troublesome to deal with.

<vested but small amounts>

[ValueMushroom]

Yup agree with you that the current "wide" spread is due to the uncertainty of the remaining shares.

Some questions to think about:
1. With Hap Seng holding 51%@0.24 after the deal, does it give us enough margin of safety after the deal?
2. Before the deal, 73.4% are in the hands of SSH. After the deal it can increase to 87% depending on the acceptance level. With shares tightly controlled, what will happen to the share price?
3. With Hap Seng coming in as a business partner, will it help Hafary to expand its business?

Vested
(144lots)

[secretinvestors]

Yup agree with you that the current "wide" spread is due to the uncertainty of the remaining shares.

Some questions to think about:
1. With Hap Seng holding 51%@0.24 after the deal, does it give us enough margin of safety after the deal?
2. Before the deal, 73.4% are in the hands of SSH. After the deal it can increase to 87% depending on the acceptance level. With shares tightly controlled, what will happen to the share price?
3. With Hap Seng coming in as a business partner, will it help Hafary to expand its business?

Vested
(144lots)

Perhaps you can give your take about the answers to the 3 questions? I didn't look deep into the financial results but thought that Hafary is pretty leveraged. Whether Hap Seng can help Hafary in the long-term remains to be seen but my initial impression is that the intention is really to benefit HSCB first.

Point 12 and 13 of the offer letter can give more insights:
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Hafary%2...eID=331630

[ValueMushroom]

My answers are actually indicated by my vested interest : )
144lots bought for this transaction : )

Need to highlight this is for value trading, didn't analyse in details whether it is a value stock for long term holdings.

[secretinvestors]

My answers are actually indicated by my vested interest : )
144lots bought for this transaction : )

Need to highlight this is for value trading, didn't analyse in details whether it is a value stock for long term holdings.

Ok got it. For me, since there's some remaining shares on hand after acceptance of offer, I would be slightly more careful about the fundamentals since there might be some chance that I have to hold on to it for an extended period of time. If we take our position at around $0.21, the net effect after the offer would mean the average price bought to be around $0.18 which is near the 52 week low of $0.175. PER at this price would be about 9-10x which seems quite reasonable.

<vested but small amounts>

[Louhan]

My answers are actually indicated by my vested interest : )
144lots bought for this transaction : )

Need to highlight this is for value trading, didn't analyse in details whether it is a value stock for long term holdings.

Ok got it. For me, since there's some remaining shares on hand after acceptance of offer, I would be slightly more careful about the fundamentals since there might be some chance that I have to hold on to it for an extended period of time. If we take our position at around $0.21, the net effect after the offer would mean the average price bought to be around $0.18 which is near the 52 week low of $0.175. PER at this price would be about 9-10x which seems quite reasonable.

<vested but small amounts>

The offer has been declared unconditional.

[secretinvestors]

My answers are actually indicated by my vested interest : )
144lots bought for this transaction : )

Need to highlight this is for value trading, didn't analyse in details whether it is a value stock for long term holdings.

Ok got it. For me, since there's some remaining shares on hand after acceptance of offer, I would be slightly more careful about the fundamentals since there might be some chance that I have to hold on to it for an extended period of time. If we take our position at around $0.21, the net effect after the offer would mean the average price bought to be around $0.18 which is near the 52 week low of $0.175. PER at this price would be about 9-10x which seems quite reasonable.

<vested but small amounts>

The offer has been declared unconditional.

Yes, more details here:
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Hafary%2...eID=332042