Penguin International
09-02-2021, 02:19 AM
How many buyers out there will want to buy a company knowing that company will dividend out the cash without talking it into consideration. Ie factor into the offering price?
My logic/ hope is simple. Buyer always pay a premium for my shares. The higher the better. 
PIL
22 Jan (Fri) 4,786.200 @65cents 25 Jan (Mon) 2,178,100 @65cents 26 Jan (Tue) 3,311,400 @65cents 27 Jan (Wed) 4,036,900 @65cents 28 Jan (Thu) 1,607,800 @65cents 29 Jan (Fri) 1,732,100 @65cents 1 Feb (Mon) 787,500 @65cents 30.07% *halted about 10.06AM 2 Feb (Tue) 3,144,900 @65cents 31.50% 3 Feb (Wed) 65,400 @65cents 31.53% 4 Feb (Thu) 400,800 @65cents 31.71% 5 Feb (Fri) 163,900 @65cents 31.79% 8 Feb (Mon) 558,300 @65cents 32.04% https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Project%2...eID=647676 Stay home and stay healthy, everyone. 
09-02-2021, 04:24 PM
(09-02-2021, 02:19 AM)donmihaihai Wrote: How many buyers out there will want to buy a company knowing that company will dividend out the cash without talking it into consideration. Ie factor into the offering price? In this case, the buyer includes an insider taking the lead, backed by a financial-minded outsider vulture trying its luck for a bite of the fat meat, which includes (based on 30Jun20 B/S, complied following the conservative historical cost accounting convention) a $55.8m cash reserve - equivalent to $0.253/share or 33% of equity at $169.1m, or NAV/share at $0.768. Shareholders who know financial numbers well and take the trouble to review the B/S should come to the right conclusions on the offer.
09-02-2021, 05:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2021, 05:08 PM by Corgitator.)
(09-02-2021, 04:24 PM)dydx Wrote:(09-02-2021, 02:19 AM)donmihaihai Wrote: How many buyers out there will want to buy a company knowing that company will dividend out the cash without talking it into consideration. Ie factor into the offering price? Singaporean shareholders do not know the numbers well. Just ask the typical SGX investor about accounting, and most will blank out. And I'm not even referring to the harder accounting stuff such as footnote accounting, just the basic 101 accounting. If majority of Penguin's minority shareholders are good analysts, wouldn't you agree that Penguin's share price would never have been that undervalued for most of the time? Since they would have jumped at the opportunity and corrected the mispricing. From my experience, as long as the offer price is higher than investors' cost basis (i.e. they are in the green), most minority shareholders will take the bait, without regard for the true intrinsic value of the business. So far, Challenger was one of the rare cases where the deal fell through despite offer price being higher than average cost basis for minority shareholders. But in that case, there was a strong anchor shareholder (Pangolin) that went around getting minority shareholders to come together.
09-02-2021, 05:17 PM
(09-02-2021, 05:06 PM)Corgitator Wrote: From my experience, as long as the offer price is higher than investors' cost basis (i.e. they are in the green), most minority shareholders will take the bait, without regard for the true intrinsic value of the business. So far, Challenger was one of the rare cases where the deal fell through despite offer price being higher than average cost basis for minority shareholders. But in that case, there was a strong anchor shareholder (Pangolin) that went around getting minority shareholders to come together. Glad that you mentioned Challenger. The same PE fund - Dymon Asia - was involved in the last failed attempt to privatise Challenger in collaboration with its controlling shareholder/management.
09-02-2021, 05:22 PM
(09-02-2021, 05:17 PM)dydx Wrote:(09-02-2021, 05:06 PM)Corgitator Wrote: From my experience, as long as the offer price is higher than investors' cost basis (i.e. they are in the green), most minority shareholders will take the bait, without regard for the true intrinsic value of the business. So far, Challenger was one of the rare cases where the deal fell through despite offer price being higher than average cost basis for minority shareholders. But in that case, there was a strong anchor shareholder (Pangolin) that went around getting minority shareholders to come together. Yeah, but to me, Pangolin was instrumental to blocking the deal. Without Pangolin, I believe that the deal would have gone ahead. I was a keen observer in the proceedings, and I saw how Pangolin's actions influenced the sentiment significantly. So I guess it will be good if there's a strong and reputable minority shareholder in Penguin that could take the lead. So far, based on what I see, the shareholding structure seems pretty fragmented.
PIL
22 Jan (Fri) 4,786.200 @65cents 25 Jan (Mon) 2,178,100 @65cents 26 Jan (Tue) 3,311,400 @65cents 27 Jan (Wed) 4,036,900 @65cents 28 Jan (Thu) 1,607,800 @65cents 29 Jan (Fri) 1,732,100 @65cents 1 Feb (Mon) 787,500 @65cents 30.07% *halted about 10.06AM 2 Feb (Tue) 3,144,900 @65cents 31.50% 3 Feb (Wed) 65,400 @65cents 31.53% 4 Feb (Thu) 400,800 @65cents 31.71% 5 Feb (Fri) 163,900 @65cents 31.79% 8 Feb (Mon) 558,300 @65cents 32.04% 9 Feb (Tue) 153,300 @65cents 32.11% https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Project%2...eID=647863 Stay home and stay healthy, everyone.
15-02-2021, 09:54 AM
(08-02-2021, 05:40 PM)dydx Wrote: I will be surprised and angry if Penguin chooses to withhold a final dividend for FY20, even though the group operations would record a decent profit and continue to generate a positive free cash flow. This would amount to the Chairman - who is leading the current privatisation offer - robbing the rightful dividend entitlement from all shareholders. Are you angry yet? Or just surprised? Or both?  Full Year Result No dividend declared. Revenue down 12%. Gross Profit down 17%. Net Profit down 32%.
15-02-2021, 10:11 AM
No dividend declared.... Expected option by the company knowing that the management is also the offeror....
Got to wait for the IFA's advice to the ID. Will consider the advice in my decision to hold or sell Penguin and put the funds in other value stocks.
15-02-2021, 11:10 AM
(15-02-2021, 09:54 AM)lonewolf Wrote:(08-02-2021, 05:40 PM)dydx Wrote: I will be surprised and angry if Penguin chooses to withhold a final dividend for FY20, even though the group operations would record a decent profit and continue to generate a positive free cash flow. This would amount to the Chairman - who is leading the current privatisation offer - robbing the rightful dividend entitlement from all shareholders. Very disappointed! Don't know what else to say, and start to have serious doubt on the Chairman and IDs.. |
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