Penguin International

[dydx]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/New%20Sh...eID=433435

Finally a project of significance has been announced. However, given the project I will like to know what is the margin for the 3 vessels and the value of the contract.

Lastly, I hope this contract will lead to a long term relationship with MHA

More info on the MHA/SCDF order of 3 boats.....
http://www.sgmarineindustries.com/news/1...s-for-scdf

[new-comer1]

Based on past 5 years announcement date, full-year financial results should be out this month.

[Jacmar]

Based on past 5 years announcement date, full-year financial results should be out this month.

I think you are not only newcomer to VB but also newcomer to stock mkt investing. Base on SGX ruling all companies must report their FY results 60 days after the end of their FY. Hence all those with FY dec 31st has to report their results by end of this mth, Feb.  Qtrly report has to be out 45 days from end of the qtr.

[CY09]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Penguin_...eID=440514

Looks like Penguin's full year results has not been covered.

Overall, a pretty disappointing results. Both of its ferry/charter" and "Ship repair" segment have fallen into a loss. The main problem for its ferry/charter services was the massive expansion by building more ships which now sits idle/chartered out at a lower rate. The fortunate thing was that Penguin did not take on massive debt to fuel its expansion plans.

Its debt (from UOB iirc) stands at 10 million. Given its cash balance of 19 mil, Penguin will definitely be able to repay. However, I would have liked it if Penguin could pay down half of the principal early because of the 4.5+% interest rates.

For the whole of FY 16, penguin sold off two of its crewboats for 5.28 mil. It was in 3QFY16.

Hopefully in Fy 17, we will see a reduction of crewboat for charter on its website. As of writing, there are 14 crewboats seeking charter.

[BlueKelah]

poor results no one interested to cover la

So long oil price not going up it's going to be lean times for penguin, might even have to close down one of their yard to cut cost.

Maybe next quarter better, got the gov. Contract rite?

Looks like this penguin is gonna have to continue its dream of being able to fly.


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[dydx]

So long oil price not going up it's going to be lean times for penguin, might even have to close down one of their yard to cut cost.

Maybe next quarter better, got the gov. Contract rite?

Looks like this penguin is gonna have to continue its dream of being able to fly.

Never underestimate what a smart, committed and driven management can do good to a business. Of course, any success will take time and effort, and a positive business environment and some luck will help too.

[karlmarx]

I spent the past three nights reading the entire thread from start to finish. It reads like a story from Adam Smith's The Money Game. I don't think there is any other stock in VB which has been covered so extensively, by so many interested parties, tracking the business and share price from its days of obscurity, to celebrity, and then back again.

Over a 9-year period from FY06 to FY14, when its earnings peaked, Penguin's average net profit is about $4.65m per year. Back in FY14, it has no debt and $35m in cash. Let's say I apply a multiple of 8 to this earning and add in all of the cash, I will get a value of about $72m. If let's say I am a conservative investor who only pays 50 cents on the dollar, I will be paying $36m, or $0.05 per share.

The FY14 results were released on 25 Feb 2015. The share price on 27 Feb 2015 was $0.21 (from google); based on total 660,518,012 shares, the market cap was about $138m.

Of course, one could say that the business environment from FY11-14 was far different from FY06-10, hence one should not take into consideration the poor numbers from FY06-10 to calculate its value. I concede that in a bullish environment, it is not easy to remain objective. I have lost enough money during my early investing days to be wary of cyclical businesses (STXPO, why weren't you bought out?). I have come to realise that there is some money not meant for me to be made. I shall just stick to what I know and refrain from being green-eyed (or is it red?) when the cyclical upturn arrives.

And probably, very few will be so conservative in their calculation of a business' value. You can say I am kiasi, and I will agree with you. If we were this conservative all of the time, the only time we can find businesses of such valuation is during periods of market crash. But of course, there are exceptions. And it is up to us to discover them.

I think newcomers will benefit alot if they read this entire thread. Just by seeing how under-valuation can become over-valuation as the business environment change, is one amongst the many valuable lessons here.

For now, I shall be keeping an eye on this bird.

[corydorus]

poor results no one interested to cover la

So long oil price not going up it's going to be lean times for penguin, might even have to close down one of their yard to cut cost.

Maybe next quarter better, got the gov. Contract rite?

Looks like this penguin is gonna have to continue its dream of being able to fly.


Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

I have been monitoring the price movement of this counter. I do not like it. While there maybe potential,  I think chances are, I will be trapped.

[weijian]

I spent the past three nights reading the entire thread from start to finish. It reads like a story from Adam Smith's The Money Game. I don't think there is any other stock in VB which has been covered so extensively, by so many interested parties, tracking the business and share price from its days of obscurity, to celebrity, and then back again.

hi karlmarx,
It would have even been more mesmerizing if you had covered this real time.
Whether hindsight or real time, this is an excellent example of the psychology of crowds and mean reversion (cyclicals). You get people drumming this up - long enough (even with videos) and after a while, the tipping point is reached and as more people declared their vested interests, it got into a momentum on its own to continue to trumpet up both its prospects and price. All these, were supported by the basis that it was cheap (mainly based on P/E) and there was 1 old-colorful-animal forumer whom warned against such cyclicals (low P/E = dangerously near to end of the upturn, high P/E = could be the start of the new up-turn)

[karlmarx]

I briefly read a few posts on Penguin over the past years, but I was never attracted to the discussion. No particular reason why. Anyway, it wouldn't have been as enjoyable if I were to read a few posts a day over a few years.

I think that P/E as a tool will better serve investors if it is understood as price / long-term earning ability; not just the earnings of the last 12 months. Of course, being able to determine a business' long-term earning ability is not so simple. An average of the past, coupled with some consideration for its outlook, is normally what I do. How long is 'long-term?' It is as long as you are willing to hold the stock.

The old-colourful-animal-forumer you speak of is indeed a value investor. From his unwavering contrarian view, his reasons for his contrarian view, his portfolio, and his reasons for choosing those stocks in his portfolio, I can tell that investing will continue to be a financially rewarding activity for him. It is clear that he knows what he is doing.

Anyway it's not nice to discuss about others. But I do hope that one day my stocks get such a large following as well.