SPH REIT

[Nick]

Open 98 cents...now 99 cents. Happy huating to those vested !

(Not Vested)

[NTL]

Now SPH REIT is the lowest yield of all the shopping reits! Can this be possible? Is SPH REIT better/safer than CapitaMall? Or Fraser Centrepoint?

[KopiKat]

Open 98 cents...now 99 cents. Happy huating to those vested !

(Not Vested)

SPH just made a 10% unrealised gain for their stake... $150mil+?

[swakoo]

UOBKH analysts' report extract,

Valuation range. SPH REIT offers a forward yield of 5.8% in 2014F. Comparable retail S-REITs, such as CapitaMall Trust and Frasers Centrepoint Trust, are trading at forward yields of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively. At 5.4% and 5.5% forward yields, SPH REIT would be trading at S$0.97 and S$0.95 respectively.

NRA analyst report extract:

The listing yield lies between those of listed peers, with Frasers Centrepoint Trust offering yields of 5.8%* (FY13F) and 5.9%* (FY14F) and CapitaMall Trust’s yield at 5.1%* (FY13F) and 5.4%* (FY14F).
*Bloomberg estimates

Different ways of calculating forward yields?

[KopiKat]

UOBKH analysts' report extract,

Valuation range. SPH REIT offers a forward yield of 5.8% in 2014F. Comparable retail S-REITs, such as CapitaMall Trust and Frasers Centrepoint Trust, are trading at forward yields of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively. At 5.4% and 5.5% forward yields, SPH REIT would be trading at S$0.97 and S$0.95 respectively.

NRA analyst report extract:

The listing yield lies between those of listed peers, with Frasers Centrepoint Trust offering yields of 5.8%* (FY13F) and 5.9%* (FY14F) and CapitaMall Trust’s yield at 5.1%* (FY13F) and 5.4%* (FY14F).
*Bloomberg estimates

Different ways of calculating forward yields?

CMT forward yield estimates are the same at 5.4% for both. The difference is for FCT, with NRA = 5.9% (FY14) & UOBKH = 5.5%. FCT just announced a good increase in DPU last evening, which adjusted their yield from 5.68% to 6% @ $1.90. Perhaps NRA, using Bloomberg figures, which may be more current, made their analysis based on that? Whereas, UOBKH data may be more historical in nature for FCT...

[Nick]

UOBKH analysts' report extract,

Valuation range. SPH REIT offers a forward yield of 5.8% in 2014F. Comparable retail S-REITs, such as CapitaMall Trust and Frasers Centrepoint Trust, are trading at forward yields of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively. At 5.4% and 5.5% forward yields, SPH REIT would be trading at S$0.97 and S$0.95 respectively.

NRA analyst report extract:

The listing yield lies between those of listed peers, with Frasers Centrepoint Trust offering yields of 5.8%* (FY13F) and 5.9%* (FY14F) and CapitaMall Trust’s yield at 5.1%* (FY13F) and 5.4%* (FY14F).
*Bloomberg estimates

Different ways of calculating forward yields?

CMT forward yield estimates are the same at 5.4% for both. The difference is for FCT, with NRA = 5.9% (FY14) & UOBKH = 5.5%. FCT just announced a good increase in DPU last evening, which adjusted their yield from 5.68% to 6% @ $1.90. Perhaps NRA, using Bloomberg figures, which may be more current, made their analysis based on that? Whereas, UOBKH data may be more historical in nature for FCT...

It is not advisable to simply annualize FCT quarterly DPU or its 9M 13 DPU as they tend to retain cash in the first 2 quarters and pay it up in the later quarters. This causes the 1Q and 2Q DPU to be low and the 3Q and 4Q DPU to be high. The FY DPU would be a 100% cash payout nonetheless.

FY 2013

1Q DPU: 2.40 cents (excludes 0.25 cents retained)
2Q DPU: 2.70 cents (excludes 0.15 cents retained)
3Q DPU: 2.85 cents (2.80 cents + 0.05 cents)
4Q DPU: ???

Assuming they maintain the core payout at 2.80 cents, 4Q 2013 DPU will be 2.80 + 0.35 = 3.15 cents. This works out to an estimated FY 13 dividend of 11.10 cents. Based on current trading price of $1.95, this implies a dividend yield of 5.69%.

(Vested in FCT)

[KopiKat]

For the record,

Open : $0.98
Close : $0.985
Range : $0.98 to $1
Vol : 121,952,000 shares

---

UOBKH analysts' report extract,

Valuation range. SPH REIT offers a forward yield of 5.8% in 2014F. Comparable retail S-REITs, such as CapitaMall Trust and Frasers Centrepoint Trust, are trading at forward yields of 5.4% and 5.5% respectively. At 5.4% and 5.5% forward yields, SPH REIT would be trading at S$0.97 and S$0.95 respectively.

NRA analyst report extract:

The listing yield lies between those of listed peers, with Frasers Centrepoint Trust offering yields of 5.8%* (FY13F) and 5.9%* (FY14F) and CapitaMall Trust’s yield at 5.1%* (FY13F) and 5.4%* (FY14F).
*Bloomberg estimates

Different ways of calculating forward yields?

CMT forward yield estimates are the same at 5.4% for both. The difference is for FCT, with NRA = 5.9% (FY14) & UOBKH = 5.5%. FCT just announced a good increase in DPU last evening, which adjusted their yield from 5.68% to 6% @ $1.90. Perhaps NRA, using Bloomberg figures, which may be more current, made their analysis based on that? Whereas, UOBKH data may be more historical in nature for FCT...

It is not advisable to simply annualize FCT quarterly DPU or its 9M 13 DPU as they tend to retain cash in the first 2 quarters and pay it up in the later quarters. This causes the 1Q and 2Q DPU to be low and the 3Q and 4Q DPU to be high. The FY DPU would be a 100% cash payout nonetheless.

FY 2013

1Q DPU: 2.40 cents (excludes 0.25 cents retained)
2Q DPU: 2.70 cents (excludes 0.15 cents retained)
3Q DPU: 2.85 cents (2.80 cents + 0.05 cents)
4Q DPU: ???

Assuming they maintain the core payout at 2.80 cents, 4Q 2013 DPU will be 2.80 + 0.35 = 3.15 cents. This works out to an estimated FY 13 dividend of 11.10 cents. Based on current trading price of $1.95, this implies a dividend yield of 5.69%.

(Vested in FCT)

Hmm... I was just pointing out on the possibility of why NRA & UOBKH may have such different figures for FCT Yield....

For FCT latest DPU, if we were to use 2.8ct (without the +0.05ct retained cash), we can get an Annualised Yield figure that's pretty close to your estimate ie. 5.744% @ $1.95 vs 5.69%.. but I must say it's not as straight-forward to do very accurate annualised yield figures nowadays as there're a lot more tricks in income smoothing being used by REIT Mgrs....Retained Cash, Capital Gains, Capital Payment,...etc..

[Nick]

Well said Kopikat ! With MCT results in, its annualized 1Q dividend yield works out to 5.7% yield. Granted, it has exposure to office sector as well but vivocity rent reversion is really awesome.

[Temperament]

Who are selling? And who are buying? It is still very hot.

[felixleong]

punter stock lol