CIRCULAR TO UNITHOLDERS
The Board will be appointing an independent financial adviser (Independent Financial Adviser) to advise the directors of the Trustee-Manager who are considered independent for the purposes of the Offer (Independent Directors). A circular containing the advice of the
Independent Financial Adviser and the recommendations of the Independent Directors (Offeree Circular) will be sent to the Unitholders within 14 days of the posting of the Offer Document.
In the meantime, Unitholders are advised to exercise caution when dealing in their Units or otherwise refrain from taking any action in relation to their Units which may be prejudicial to their interests until they or their advisers have considered the information and the recommendations of the Independent Directors as well as the
advice of the Independent Financial Adviser to be set out in the Offeree Circular
anyone think the cash-rich tycoon will raise the price more? Though they did not condition their offer on 90% / taking private seems to be limiting much further upside from here. Thoughts anyone?
It did go above the offer price for a while.........
Number of shares traded at day 1 (04-Nov-2014) = 669,000 shares (0.26%).
Shareholding status at announcement of takeover:
= 79,133,379 shares (30.79%) – Nan Fung
= 46,170,162 shares (17.96%) - PAG
= 21,985,397 shares ( 8.55%) - APG
= 25,675,245 shares (9.99%) - Credit Suisse Group (Rights of use of shares)
= 84,055,534 shares (32.70%) - Others
=257,019,717 shares (100%)
I think, at this stage, anything is possible. Just wondering how the other SSH would react to it ? Outbid NF ? Ha-ha !
(vested)
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
Boon, clearly a low-ball (& derisory) ranging shot by NF. I am surprised they left this until after the refinancing of TP - the biggest outstanding risk to the trust has been removed and their main asset is about to become cash generative. The options didn't expire until June 15 and they had another 8 months to re-fi TP. Strange, they now have to pay a fair price on a largely unrisked asset.
From what I recall, PAG paid between 1.80 and 2.00 for their shares, Credit Suisse and APG I don't know. I go with the guys at Panmures and believe NF will have to go above 2.50 to encourage the big holders to sell. If this bid is not successful they can't bid agin for another 12 months, and the shares will have re-rated plenty more by then.
I am trying to get contact emails for the independent directors to communicate direct with them. They hold the key and we will see how independent they really are. The assets within the trust could now easily be marketed and sold at prices close to the carried value, so how can the board back such a low-ball bid when it is their duty to shareholders to recommend a better alternative. Sod NF, they now have to pay up to get my shares..!
anyone think the cash-rich tycoon will raise the price more? Though they did not condition their offer on 90% / taking private seems to be limiting much further upside from here. Thoughts anyone?
It did go above the offer price for a while.........
Number of shares traded at day 1 (04-Nov-2014) = 669,000 shares (0.26%).
Shareholding status at announcement of takeover:
= 79,133,379 shares (30.79%) – Nan Fung
= 46,170,162 shares (17.96%) - PAG
= 21,985,397 shares ( 8.55%) - APG
= 25,675,245 shares (9.99%) - Credit Suisse Group (Rights of use of shares)
= 84,055,534 shares (32.70%) - Others
=257,019,717 shares (100%)
I think, at this stage, anything is possible. Just wondering how the other SSH would react to it ? Outbid NF ? Ha-ha !
Offer Price/Book NAV: Selected Singapore Property Precedent Transactions Forterra Trust (2014) = 1.85 / 3.90 = 0.47 x
PCRT (2014) = 0.54 / 0.75 = 0.72 x (assuming offer price = share price) = on going
CMA (2014)= 1.19 x
Sing Land (2014) = 0.72 x
Pan Pacific Hotel Group (2013)= 1.62 x
SC Global (2012) = 1.15 x
Allgreen Properties (2011) = 0.99 x
MCL Land (2010) = 0.96 x
Based on Offer Price / Book NAV : Is 1.85 a FAIR GO ? Bear in mind that DTL of about 1.30 has not been factored in.
(vested)
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
(05-11-2014, 03:19 PM)Boon Wrote: Offer Price/Book NAV: Selected Singapore Property Precedent Transactions Forterra Trust (2014) = 1.85 / 3.90 = 0.47 x
PCRT (2014) = 0.54 / 0.75 = 0.72 x (assuming offer price = share price) = on going
CMA (2014)= 1.19 x
Sing Land (2014) = 0.72 x
Pan Pacific Hotel Group (2013)= 1.62 x
SC Global (2012) = 1.15 x
Allgreen Properties (2011) = 0.99 x
MCL Land (2010) = 0.96 x
Based on Offer Price / Book NAV : Is 1.85 a FAIR GO ? Bear in mind that DTL of about 1.30 has not been factored in.
(vested)
Boon, not reasonable or fair in any way at all. Development REITs have generally traded at 70% of NAV and Stabilised REITs at a slight premium from what I see on the SGX. FT is moving towards an 85% stabilised portfolio, hence fair value should reflect this, less a margin for the early stage of the rental build for TP.
Chung admitted to me two weeks ago that NF had overpaid for their initial stake in FT - this is clearly an attempt to average down on their position, but as I said y'day, having derisked the portfolios main asset, the board of FT is obliged to consider what is in the interests of the shareholders and this would be best met by selling down the portfolio in full. Failing that, I would accept a price close to the average discount for development REITs, with the discount to full NAV reflecting the premium for liquidity now.
06-11-2014, 12:45 AM (This post was last modified: 06-11-2014, 10:55 AM by Boon.)
(05-11-2014, 09:34 PM)PekingDuck Wrote:
(05-11-2014, 03:19 PM)Boon Wrote: Offer Price/Book NAV: Selected Singapore Property Precedent Transactions Forterra Trust (2014) = 1.85 / 3.90 = 0.47 x
PCRT (2014) = 0.54 / 0.75 = 0.72 x (assuming offer price = share price) = on going
CMA (2014)= 1.19 x
Sing Land (2014) = 0.72 x
Pan Pacific Hotel Group (2013)= 1.62 x
SC Global (2012) = 1.15 x
Allgreen Properties (2011) = 0.99 x
MCL Land (2010) = 0.96 x
Based on Offer Price / Book NAV : Is 1.85 a FAIR GO ? Bear in mind that DTL of about 1.30 has not been factored in.
(vested)
Boon, not reasonable or fair in any way at all. Development REITs have generally traded at 70% of NAV and Stabilised REITs at a slight premium from what I see on the SGX. FT is moving towards an 85% stabilised portfolio, hence fair value should reflect this, less a margin for the early stage of the rental build for TP.
Chung admitted to me two weeks ago that NF had overpaid for their initial stake in FT - this is clearly an attempt to average down on their position, but as I said y'day, having derisked the portfolios main asset, the board of FT is obliged to consider what is in the interests of the shareholders and this would be best met by selling down the portfolio in full. Failing that, I would accept a price close to the average discount for development REITs, with the discount to full NAV reflecting the premium for liquidity now.
Hi PekingDuck,
Has NF “overpaid” for its initial controlling stakes in FT ?
2.98 was at a "premium" to the prevailing share price then – so relative to the share price, yes, NF had “overpaid”.
2.98 was at a “discount” to the NAV then – so relative to the NAV then, no, NF had NOT overpaid.
Relative to current share price, yes, NF had “overpaid”
Relative to latest revised NAV, no, NF had NOT “overpaid”
Over the years, from London (Aims) to Singapore (SGX) ; and from CREO to TCT to FT, the share price of FT has always been traded at deep discount to NAV. WHy ?
There were many reasons to it which had been discussed many times before in this thread – so I would not repeat them here.
That said, I totally agreed with you that to maximize shareholders value for ALL stake holders – the best way is the selling down of the entire portfolio.
Assuming selling at 0.75 x NAV and pocketing 75% of the DTL could be realized, this equates to
=> 0.75 x (3.90 + 1.30) = 3.9 per share.
NF could still make 0.92 per share for its 30% stake
By offering 1.85 and selling it for 3.9, NF could potentially be making an additional 2.05 per share over the remaining 70% stake which it is now trying to get - over SGD 300 million we are talking about - very significant.
So had NF overpaid for 2.98 ?
Not if it could be sold for 3.9 which IMO is easy once TP is stabilized.
0.92 per share profit over 100% stake is still a reasonable good business venture, I reckon.
(Vested)．
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
Rather than wait for NF, is it easier for PAG or APG to ask for a shareholders' vote to authorise the directors to sell away all the assets and distribute the proceeds as dividends? I know I will support such a resolution.....
Rather than wait for NF, is it easier for PAG or APG to ask for a shareholders' vote to authorise the directors to sell away all the assets and distribute the proceeds as dividends? I know I will support such a resolution.....
I believe those were the guys that voted down resolution 3 during the AGM. I speculate that they would come up with something - It is certainly something worth pursuing.
Wondering how would NF react to such a resolution to "fire sale FT" at SGD 2.98 a share, net of all liabilities ?
"u kidding me - 2.98 is way too cheap !"
(vested)
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
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