02-12-2014, 09:26 PM
(02-12-2014, 09:51 AM)Belg Wrote: From July till now, MTQ has experienced a dip of nearly 40% from 1.57 till 1.04 today.
I did a study of their business and they are mainly engaging in the aftermarket business nature for the O & G industry. It is unlike the nature of the business for Rig and OSV builders as their business flavor really coincides with the oil price movement.
As I have always been involved in the aftermarket business in O & G, it is very recurring in nature and a lot of businesses are based on trust and long term relationship. This sharp dip in share price might be the works of the sellers based on sentiments.
Since every single O & G based machinery are still rotating and turning, regardless of the oil price, repair and refurbishment business at MTQ corp will still be coming in. Thus, it might be worthwhile to pick some shares on MTQs on the dips.
The above is just my 2 cents worth, look forward to comments.
Belg.
(02-12-2014, 04:00 PM)shn Wrote: I have enjoyed the ride on MTQ since 2012 and divested in July this year when the valuation became excessive. With the substantial fall in share price, the price has started to look attractive to me again. Notwithstanding that, it is important to note that the Management has always been quite optimistic when it made forward looking statements but the tone of the guidance the Management gave in its latest (2Q15) financial statement was less optimistic.
1Q15
"The immediate outlook for the oil and gas industry still remains positive in the markets that the Group operates in, notably the Middle East. The Group remains committed to growing its oilfield
engineering and subsea services businesses and remains well poised to capitalise on opportunities moving ahead."
2Q15
"With significant new drilling assets poised to join the market, market sentiment is likely to remain muted. Notwithstanding this business environment, the Group will continue to drive efforts to
secure sales while looking to expand service offerings in new markets."
I have started to accumulate MTQ slowly as I believe in the Management's ability to grow the business after following this stock for the last two years. It is now trading at an extrapolated PER of 8.4, which is attractive to me.
The information provided by Belg has made me understand more of MTQ's competitive advantage.
MTQ may continue to experience price weakness in the short-term; hence, I am accumulating its shares slowly.
I actually picked up MTQ at around 70 cents during 2007, and sold off during recovery in 2009...Kicked myself for not being able to hold through the subprime crisis...This time, I'm keeping it around
(02-12-2014, 05:21 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Entire supply chain will be affected. It takes a lot of patience and conviction to go against the tide.
But a bear market is the best time to analyse and pick out the alpha stocks. I've met management and pretty impressed that he said he had not met expectations. Most people don't say that.
In a bull market even sh*t floats. In a bear market is where you can see who were swimming naked and you can point out the decent ones
Management needs to justify its high director fees as Stephen wrote...with that said however, it is true that when there's blood in the water, sharks come out to play