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(28-07-2015, 12:16 PM)boochap Wrote: I don't think he has ever said that. he is one of the big man who is against diversification -
'Keep all your eggs in one basket, but watch that basket closely.'
'Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing.'
I think you are right as I'm more familiar with the 2 quotes than the one in picture.
I goggled the picture to depict my intention as a picture is worth a thousands words. My intention is that if you have 5 counters, if you lost all in 1 counter, you need to achieve 25% profit to recoup back your 20% lost. If you have 10 counters, you need to achieve 11%. If you have small capital, it is best to have few counters but if your capital is big, you still need to diversify according to how many counters you are able to manage.
For big investors, they may follow the investment pyramid.
[Image: 2107_a.jpg]
The only way to avoid making mistakes is not to do anything. And that … will be the ultimate mistake. - Goh Keng Swee
A pessimist complains about the wind; an optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails. - W. A. Ward
Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself. - Jane Bryant Quinn
人生最大錯誤,用健康換取身外之物。 ^ 人生无常,珍惜当下。 ^ 放弃固执,适时变通。 ^ 前面是绝路,希望在转角。
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Financial results will be reported tomorrow. Will be interesting to see tithe cash flow statements.
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What terrible results. No news on IPOD. No news on debt repayment whatsoever even after ~3 weeks.
Here are a few interesting red flags.
Cash burn was $122m RMB. Here is the breakdown:
Receivables rose $160m. Not a single reprieve in receivables since the IPO. Rose from 165 days in Q4 2014 to 198 days today. That is a 33 days in 6 months.
inventories rose $124m, albeit some will argue this ride is seasonal.
A good portion of the payables SinoG drew down was repaid. This shows SinoG has no leverage against its suppliers.
Even though the company recorded a 66m tax charge, the company paid 31.5m. This created a deferred tax liability line item. Will be interesting to see if this DTL will get paid down.
SG&A rose 65.2% against a 14.5% move in inventories.
I shorted some SinoG a day before the results because it was a highly asymmetric bet.
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13-08-2015, 09:30 AM
(This post was last modified: 13-08-2015, 09:44 AM by swang107.)
Some thoughts on this earnings report. In short, I don't think it is as bad, there aren't any 'new negatives'.
1) On the CB. I feel that there enough details on the CB though. They presented numbers that can help investors appreciate the cost of borrowing though this funding avenue, particularly on how expensive the interest rates are compounding. "Liability component at amortised cost" component itself increased by RMB163 mil in half a year. Anyway, profits are growing faster...... But really, efforts to renegotiate for better terms are welcome
2) IPO . Now....this IPO was initially pitched to the CB investors, to entice them to lend at a time when it was difficult for them to get funding. Personally I think rushing the IPO of the subsidiary, at this stage where is growing fast, would be too early. As compared to later on when it is more mature and with scale, fetch better valuations. If these CB investors can be convinced of this, to wait and meanwhile accept better terms, then everyone comes out better off. I have no idea of negotiations behind the scene though, hope they revert soon.
3)questionable accounting Where?