The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

[viruskbs]

Major Markets around the world are looking at each other for cue on the direction to go with. All running out of excuses for both bear or bull at the moment.

time for the swans to make their appearance, indications are it may be black one

[tau281290]

Mobius Says Emerging-Market Selloff to Deepen on Outflows - Feb 7, 2014 10:47 PM GMT+0800

Mobius Says Emerging-Market Rout Near End as Valuations Lure - Feb 12, 2014 12:58 AM GMT+0800

Another classic coming in. This guy is a genius. In fact, I became quite bullish right after he said selloff to deepen.

Someone should make a song out of analysts, fund managers, & stock market commentators' future predictions based on a song like this ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I

haha

[felixleong]

Over the last 5 year the S&P 500 gained over 170%, that's about 25% compounded returns.

When will this bull end? I really don't know. But as long as the music keeps playing, we dance.

[Image: SNP.png]

[safetyfirst]

yeah it seems to have climbed quite high, i sold 30% of my US portfolio last night, i think i will focus more on singapore equities

[scottleey]

But you know some times the market can be slightly over value or slightly under valued.

The fact that it grew from a very low base suggests why it has gained so much for the last few years. It should not guide us into selling and timing for tops should it?

Of course a relevant measure that buffett said before was total market valuation/gnp shows only a slight overvaluation.

I understand the concerns about low interest rate boosting valuations with corporate profits still not capturing up.

But does it really necessitate us into saying this is the top?

Isnt it the case that because there are no extreme valuation and that equity prices some times have no relevance to economic numbers suggests we should just go back to the bottom up analysis and just dig there for undervalued stocks and be macro agnostic?

btw i say equity prices have no relevance to economic numbers bcos Buffett was with Gates one time at HBS said quoted an instances where there was recession in the US economy from 1953 to 1954 Nov. Yet during this time, equity prices rose the highest in history (something along 40% i believe).

[BlueKelah]

USA stocks going up is simple really, Helicopter BEN has injected so many trillions which has no where to go except to the stock market, just like china's injection goes to real estate as it is the preferred asset class.

though its tapering down to 55billion now, its gonna take at least half a year more before we see the end of the bull.

Unless of course some crisis event happens in Europe/Russia/China which can severely impact global GDP.

One possible effect of stimulus which has not happened yet is hyperinflation. Everyone seems to have forgotten this danger. Imagine if interests rates shot up 5% in a few months, "s**t will hit the fan!"

[Temperament]

2008 bottom seemed to be the lowest but no! not until March 2009. i think that's when Lehman Brothers kaput that BIB BEN and gang think of a brilliant scheme.
QE1 started. If not many more too big to fail companies would have follow Lehman brothers to demise.
Now how to taper QE and keep the stock market "intact".
What about the other problem of too much money chasing too little barang, barang. The cause of inflation?

[GPD]

Since money are constantly being reused as credit, when someone needs to pull out the cash, there will be a chained reaction. The effect to SG stock market from the trio back in last Oct is an example of one.

The way I see, the market will collapse only when some events break a weak link in the whole cycle of money flow. Sometime, the decision of a single (powerful enough) person or a act of a single (big enough) corporation is enough to break it.

[felixleong]

STI rallies from 20 march till now for over 5%
will it break 3200 and emerge as a new golden bull?
or is it a "trap"?

[kayhian]

STI rallies from 20 march till now for over 5%
will it break 3200 and emerge as a new golden bull?
or is it a "trap"?

both events will happen.

just a matter of which comes first