The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

[BlueKelah]

Lets say for an investor who is 50% vested and 50% in cash
he can separate his cash into 5 portions, 50% divide by 5

for every 10% decline in the market, he uses 1 portion to buy the index
I think overall if he successfully uses up 3 portions or more, he would make quite a decent long term return isn't it?

Thats sounds about like what I am doing except I don't buy the index but specific counters, these sometimes have a bit of LAG time during market downturn compared to index.

So far Mr. SGX Market has only been trying to buy and delist my counter one by one, he hasn't been very keen in selling good cheap stuff to me leh.....

This decline is probably due to maybe some "panic" selling from traders, and maybe some shorting. Most of low volume small chips are still sitting nice..

[Belg]

Lets say for an investor who is 50% vested and 50% in cash
he can separate his cash into 5 portions, 50% divide by 5

for every 10% decline in the market, he uses 1 portion to buy the index
I think overall if he successfully uses up 3 portions or more, he would make quite a decent long term return isn't it?

Thats sounds about like what I am doing except I don't buy the index but specific counters, these sometimes have a bit of LAG time during market downturn compared to index.

This decline is probably due to maybe some "panic" selling from traders, and maybe some shorting. Most of low volume small chips are still sitting nice..

I would like to concur. This is probably a sell-down from fear and there wasn't much fear yet. There is no blood in the streets yet from that black swan incident.

[BlueKelah]

But we should all keep in mind the FED is STILL pumping 65billion into the economy. So stocks should only adjust down a bit. In the longer term the DOW and other markets will still be flooded by the continued 65billion infusion.

If worldwide market down, US economy will also down then US FED has more excuse to continue the stimulus.

The bigger event is later this week. If debt ceiling is revised up again without any contest, it means US dollar can use as toilet paper in 10 years time. It will become helicopter yellen and helicopter obama.

[opmi]

But we should all keep in mind the FED is STILL pumping 65billion into the economy. So stocks should only adjust down a bit. In the longer term the DOW and other markets will still be flooded by the continued 65billion infusion.

If worldwide market down, US economy will also down then US FED has more excuse to continue the stimulus.

The bigger event is later this week. If debt ceiling is revised up again without any contest, it means US dollar can use as toilet paper in 10 years time. It will become helicopter yellen and helicopter obama.

Debt ceiling no event. Coz republicans already lose the last game of chicken.

[valuehunter]

Lets say for an investor who is 50% vested and 50% in cash
he can separate his cash into 5 portions, 50% divide by 5

for every 10% decline in the market, he uses 1 portion to buy the index
I think overall if he successfully uses up 3 portions or more, he would make quite a decent long term return isn't it?

This decline is probably due to maybe some "panic" selling from traders, and maybe some shorting. Most of low volume small chips are still sitting nice..

Yes, the fundamentally strong low volume small/mid caps are still holding up, likely due to the profile of the investor base. They have not capitulated yet. Blue chips first to sell down. So slowly picking up some blue (black) chips too.

[Greenrookie]

Perhaps buddies should highlight specific counters that might have overshoot to the downside or felt they are unfairly hammered. More practical perhaps?

For me, those under my radar are the same, no significant MOS appear, in fact, the last correction in December throw out more bargains...

I am watching with interest thou, the following, I believe the fall is hardly justifable, but not interested in accumulating as of yet:

1) APTT
2) SGX
3) Wingtai
4) Yangzijiang

[DP28]

Perhaps buddies should highlight specific counters that might have overshoot to the downside or felt they are unfairly hammered. More practical perhaps?

For me, those under my radar are the same, no significant MOS appear, in fact, the last correction in December throw out more bargains...

I am watching with interest thou, the following, I believe the fall is hardly justifable, but not interested in accumulating as of yet:

1) APTT
2) SGX
3) Wingtai
4) Yangzijiang

Last December I was quite confident of the 3060 support on STI. atm I see immediate and key support at 2920 but I have a feeling that this will break below.. hence I concur with felix that 2700 seems very probable this time round.

Counter specific looking ARA and Tat hong today. OCBC and SMM is on mid term/long term watchlist.

[AlphaQuant]

still a long way to taper that 65bio....(10bio each mth means at least 7 more FOMCs), meaning 7 more shocks at least.

ration your bullets wisely and reinvest those dividends...

[viruskbs]

http://www.todayonline.com/business/emer...epage=true

jesse colombo is back with technical analysis this time.


Last week, I wrote a piece in which showed that Singapore’s Straits Times (STI) stock index was hovering above an important technical support level that needed to hold to avert a serious decline, including a likely bear market. I also showed several other technical warning signs that I said made further bearish action likely. Singapore’s recent stock rout started just days after I published a viral report in which I claimed that the city state’s economy was experiencing a bubble that would lead to a crisis when it eventually pops.


In the last two days, the STI has sliced below its key support level and is currently trading at 2,959 at the time of writing:

Straits1

Chart Source: Stockcharts.com

Looking at a longer time scale, the STI has broken both its wedge pattern and its two year old uptrend line:

Straits2

The STI has experienced a serious technical breakdown this week that is even more worrisome when considering the fact that Singapore has been experiencing a dangerous economic bubble in recent years. The STI’s breakdown has occurred at the same time as the technical breakdowns of several stock indices in the U.S. and Japan, which is a further confirmation of the bearish action in global financial markets.


sorry could not get the charts in, can anyone guide me how to get the pictures & charts into the forums

[Temperament]

i like watching OCBC now.