The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

[Greenrookie]

Actually, the market has run up so much in so short a tine, I dun see much margin of safety for most counters under my radar.. I think GSS will really only be here if market correct around 10%. If a few months ago, u didn't buy something because u feel it didn't have any margin of safety, I seriously doubt the current shallow correction can offer u that unless you miscalculated the growth or value wrongly at the beginning. Sitting back and doing nothing required more emotional strength than I expect, esp, when u are hoarding more cash than usual

[Wildreamz]

Actually, the market has run up so much in so short a tine, I dun see much margin of safety for most counters under my radar.. I think GSS will really only be here if market correct around 10%. If a few months ago, u didn't buy something because u feel it didn't have any margin of safety, I seriously doubt the current shallow correction can offer u that unless you miscalculated the growth or value wrongly at the beginning. Sitting back and doing nothing required more emotional strength than I expect, esp, when u are hoarding more cash than usual

S-Chips and non-REIT property counters in general still look cheap to me.

Unfortunately, they also did not correct much, relatively.

I seriously dislike owning cash. I calculate my portfolio annual returns based on my total holdings, including cash.

Edit: Recently read up on Warren Buffett's investment style. Although he only invests when prices are sensible, when spare cash is available, he often parks his cash in arbitrages opportunities rather than keeping it in banks. Perhaps one may consider this option.

[KopiKat]

Fortune reits can down 8% lor
so scary man

I was thinking perhaps we could dig deeper into some companies at this point in time to look for value instead of being overly focused on short-term price movements.

In times of fear, I prefer to stay within my comfort zone of focussing mainly on stocks which are already in my watch list where I'd done lots of digging previously and which I'd continue to keep my spreadsheet updated on some of their quarterly financial figures. Many of these stocks are not what I'm holding now as I deemed it as not undervalued or not as attractive compared to others. But, any time there's a sharp % drop in share price, I'm usually able to quickly make a decision whether it'd become attractive enough to buy some.

If I have to do serious and time consuming digging whenever opportunity strikes, I doubt that I'll have the confidence to buy any. Even if I do buy, I doubt that I'll dare to buy a meaningful amount... due to my being not as familiar with that particular stock...

PS. Focus on the stock price vs value. The % drop in STI only serves as a guide on how much additional discount to impute on the original target share prices of interest...

[Temperament]

The most difficult thing for an investor to do is to sit and watch when market goes up a lot or the market goes down a lot. No?

[Wildreamz]

The most difficult thing for an investor to do is to sit and watch when market goes up a lot or the market goes down a lot. No?

Agree with the first part, not so sure about the second part.

[Temperament]

The most difficult thing for an investor to do is to sit and watch when market goes up a lot or the market goes down a lot. No?

Agree with the first part, not so sure about the second part.

The 2nd part is possible if you have exhausted your investing capital too early. Or You have chickened out like me in 2008/2009.

[NTL]

The most difficult thing for an investor to do is to sit and watch when market goes up a lot or the market goes down a lot. No?

Agree with the first part, not so sure about the second part.

The 2nd part is possible if you have exhausted your investing capital too early. Or You have chickened out like me in 2008/2009.

I believe people are more psychologically affected by loss than gain. While gain can make people ecstasy, loss can make people doubly panic. Especially over a short period of time.

[Musicwhiz]

I believe people are more psychologically affected by loss than gain. While gain can make people ecstasy, loss can make people doubly panic. Especially over a short period of time.

It's called "Loss Aversion", part of Behavioural Finance. You can google it to read up more.

There's also something called "Over-Reaction Bias" which teams up with loss aversion to have a very potent effect on share prices.

[Dividend Warrior]

I believe people are more psychologically affected by loss than gain. While gain can make people ecstasy, loss can make people doubly panic. Especially over a short period of time.

It's called "Loss Aversion", part of Behavioural Finance. You can google it to read up more.

There's also something called "Over-Reaction Bias" which teams up with loss aversion to have a very potent effect on share prices.

Yes. I read about this phenomenon before. The scary part is, we may think that a young adult's risk aversion is lower than a retiree. But no, according to studies, it affect all ages......

I guess it is our subconscious primal 'survival instincts' passed down from our cave-dwelling ancestors.....live to fight another day.....

[Temperament]

I believe people are more psychologically affected by loss than gain. While gain can make people ecstasy, loss can make people doubly panic. Especially over a short period of time.

It's called "Loss Aversion", part of Behavioural Finance. You can google it to read up more.

There's also something called "Over-Reaction Bias" which teams up with loss aversion to have a very potent effect on share prices.

Yes. I read about this phenomenon before. The scary part is, we may think that a young adult's risk aversion is lower than a retiree. But no, according to studies, it affect all ages......

I guess it is our subconscious primal 'survival instincts' passed down from our cave-dwelling ancestors.....live to fight another day.....

So when after SEPT 11 2001 happened, you could buy NOL at 32 cents on

Date Open Daily Low
10/15/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/14/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/11/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/10/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/9/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/8/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/7/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/4/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/3/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32
10/2/2002 0.32 0.32 0.32 0.32