The Next Big Crash - Are You Prepared?

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#21
Goldman sells ICBC.. while Temasek buys.
Perhaps Temasek buying to boost its offshore Yuan exchange business?


Temasek Holdings Pte (TMSK), Singapore’s state-owned investment company, boosted its stake in Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398) for the third time in a year as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) ended an investment in the lender.

Temasek bought 280 million shares in the world’s largest bank by market value at an average price of HK$5.50 a share, or a total of HK$1.54 billion ($198 million), according to a Hong Kong stock exchange statement yesterday.

Goldman Sachs sold 1.58 billion shares in ICBC at HK$5.50 each, a person familiar with the matter said yesterday. That was a 2.5 percent discount to ICBC’s closing price on May 20 in Hong Kong trading. The Beijing-based bank closed 2.1 percent lower at HK$5.52 yesterday, paring its 12-month gain to 19 percent.

Temasek bought 3.55 billion ICBC shares at HK$5.05 apiece from Goldman Sachs in April last year and then disclosed the purchase of a further 83.7 million shares in the Chinese lender the following month. Yesterday’s purchase boosted its ICBC stake to 7.04 percent from 6.71 percent, according to the filing.

Temasek spokesmen didn’t answer phone calls or immediately respond to e-mails after regular business hours in the city-state.

The company managed S$198 billion ($157 billion) of assets as of March 31 last year, according to its website.

Minority Stakes
New York-based Goldman Sachs joins Citigroup Inc. © and Bank of America Corp. in cutting holdings in China as new capital rules known as Basel III make it more expensive to hold minority stakes in banks. Goldman Sachs has reaped about $12 billion in sales proceeds and dividends from its $2.58 billion investment in ICBC, calculations by Macquarie Capital Securities Ltd. show.

Goldman Sachs (GS) and client funds offloaded ICBC shares at least five times before the latest transaction after first investing in ICBC in 2006.

The Chinese lender last month reported a 12 percent increase in first-quarter profit, defying a sluggish domestic economy to boost lending. The world’s most profitable lender extended 461 billion yuan ($75 billion) of new loans in the first quarter, 25 percent more than in the same period a year earlier.

The bank and its closest local rivals are trading near record-low valuations on concern that profit growth may slow as loans sour and the government deregulates interest rates. ICBC trades at about six times estimated 2013 earnings, down from a high of 21 times in early 2008, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Global financial firms including Temasek invested $33 billion in Chinese lenders from 2001 to 2009, according to regulatory data. They still own at least $45 billion of stakes in local banks, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-05...investment

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#22
How will the next crash look like?

Equities (in USD) in all time high,
Bond price at all time high,
Properties at all time high,

So will we see[/align] the crash of all 3? If so, cash will be king? Gold will re-rally?

What will be the possible catalyst for the crash? Raise in interrest? Govt pulling back the money? Fall of a major nation's economy? Or another financial crisis?
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#23
You raised an impt observation which is that equities in USD are at an all time high.

This may mean a possibility of come back of china based shares (though a cut in china I/r might be needed). As far as I can see, the shanghai composite has not rallied to its top of 3,400 against its current 2300 plus. However, I am not sure of the current P/E of SSE against its 10 yr range
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#24
yeah.. maybe when I am free I should take some time to analyze the SSE index
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#25
Looks like no market moves without the approval of DJIA or S&P 500. Can anyone shows otherwise?
WB:-

1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.

Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.

NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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#26
Ya always US lead the charge, but when crash also US go down first hehehe
SSE really looks cheap, I wonder why has it been low for so many years
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#27
(21-05-2013, 09:21 AM)Dividend Warrior Wrote:
(21-05-2013, 09:03 AM)Salty Wrote: Felix,

Which stage do you reckon we are in now?
Bull-markets are born on pessimism
grow on skepticism
mature on optimism
die on euphoria

We should be at maturing stage, going into euphoria soon......
With REITS quoting at huge premium to their already inflated NAV , I would rather say we are beyond euphoria already ... crazyness !
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#28
Ya this is strongly agree, its like over 20% premium over NAV
if only investors could pool their own money and buy straight from market without the premium lol
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#29
(21-05-2013, 11:41 AM)WolfT Wrote: Stock mkt have not reach the previous peak yet...so no worries.Smile
Maybe a few minor correction along the way. Buy more on dips.
[/align]

I like his call,
we are still far from crash.....maybe at early stage euphoria / late bull.
Come next year better be alert.
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#30
From The Straits Times on Reits.......B14...ponder this statement......sounds irony????

Mr Ng said :" Even though valuations are not cheap, with the ample liquidity, continued earning disappointments from other sectors and benign interest rate risk, it appears that expensive valuations may not be a reason to sell entirely."


Schizophrenic investors expect slump: bet on boom
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/amb...t-on-boom/
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
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