Tesla

[weijian]

Thanks for the replies. It is good to know that this forum isn't as toxic as other spaces, where Tesla fans will attack for just suggesting that Tesla/Elon is not the greatest thing since sliced bread.

On the topic of Elon and the relation to business, does the shareholders view Elon's actions as a business risk, in the way he deliberately antagonises people, regulators etc? Or is this a pro of investing with a swashbuckling businessman and this is the cause of Tesla's success?

hi EnSabahNur,

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

[learntoinvest2022]

With a proposed Stock Split and past strong quarters, should you buy into Tesla stock now?

Tesla is, without a doubt, one of the most divisive stocks of our time. Based on a 1-year chart, the stock prices ranges from $500+ to $1200+. However, the company has definitely turned around its loss-making status and has posted a number of good revenue and profit results. Hence, lets take a deep dive into its stock and evaluate both its financial and business

Over the previous three years, Tesla has been a fantastic investment for many investors. Since 2019, its stock has risen 1440%. However with news of rising interest rates and war fears, growth stocks have taken a beating in recent months. Tesla’s stock price was also not spared and has dropped 33% from its high.

To understand our short and comprehensive analysis about Tesla:
https://learntoinvests.com/with-a-propos...stock-now/

[EnSabahNur]

Thanks for the Housel article. Great stuff as always.

Can you share why you are not a Tesla shareholder? Apologies if you mentioned this elsewhere (happy to read a link if you talked about this somewhere else)

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

[quote pid="164592" dateline="1644031920"]

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator
[/quote]

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

[weijian]

Thanks for the Housel article. Great stuff as always.

Can you share why you are not a Tesla shareholder? Apologies if you mentioned this elsewhere (happy to read a link if you talked about this somewhere else)

At VB.com, debates based on facts or robust opinions are encouraged. I think a key to investing is about straddling along the boundaries of Mr Market and Mr Contrarian. You can refer to rules of engagement at VB.com over here:

Posting guidelines: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-1844...#pid146191

For obvious reasons, I am not a Tesla shareholder, but I would not resist expressing my view on Elon and Tesla - I think how Morgan Housel described this relationship to be almost 3.5years ago - continue to be applicable to this day.

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid148920

Moderator

Hi EnSabahNur,

There are primarily 2 reasons. One personal, and the 2nd is more towards the principles of value investing.

(1) Personal: As Morgan Housel's insight 3.5years ago suggest, Tesla has a big range of possibilities - You could win big OR you could lose big. The scenario that panned out was "you won big". Most supporters believe this was inevitable but not a lot of them remember that there was a period of time (after the "done deal tweet" debacle and before they managed to do some equity raising) when Elon Musk was in real danger of blowing up. My investing preference is generally along the lines of most sustainable (rather than the biggest possible) gain over a long time, and an investment with "a big range of possibilities" isn't part of preference at this time.

(2) Along the principles of value investing: Through traditional lenses, it would be hard for a value guy. But I believe there was a period of time where Tesla would be a plausible investment along the principles of value investing - ie. it was an asymmetric bet (one could bet a small sum of money for a reasonable probability of a big gain. And sizing a small position would be the way to deal with the large range of possibilities that Tesla throws out). And that period of time was when Tesla managed to turn a short seller into its supporter (late 2018). I had documented it down in Tesla's thread back then: https://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-3325...#pid150052

[dreamybear]

Technology keeps getting better ... each tries to outdo one another. After all the dust has settled(i.e. EV space become mature or commonplace like petrol vehicles now), I will be curious to find out how much market share will Tesla get ? Time will tell ....

Separately, I came across this article on the 14.9% ownership regulation. Well, regulatory technicalities are not my cup of tea, I am struggling to understand the SEC rules.

Does it mean, for US listed equities, an owner with > 14.9% stake cannot join the board of directors(BOD) ? Regulations are different for different exchanges, but I thought this seems to contrast with many SGX listed stocks where the controlling shareholders with > 15% stake are sitting on the BOD. I think a limit cld be more beneficial for minority shareholders.

------------------------

Mercedes EV breaks 1,000 km range barrier to outdo Tesla
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/m...xt%20level.

Elon Musk’s SEC filings reserve the right to buy a larger stake in Twitter
https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/11/23020...ectors-sec

[BlueKelah]

Technology keeps getting better ... each tries to outdo one another. After all the dust has settled(i.e. EV space become mature or commonplace like petrol vehicles now), I will be curious to find out how much market share will Tesla get ? Time will tell ....

Separately, I came across this article on the 14.9% ownership regulation. Well, regulatory technicalities are not my cup of tea, I am struggling to understand the SEC rules.

Does it mean, for US listed equities, an owner with > 14.9% stake cannot join the board of directors(BOD) ? Regulations are different for different exchanges, but I thought this seems to contrast with many SGX listed stocks where the controlling shareholders with > 15% stake are sitting on the BOD. I think a limit cld be more beneficial for minority shareholders.

------------------------

Mercedes EV breaks 1,000 km range barrier to outdo Tesla
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/m...xt%20level.

Elon Musk’s SEC filings reserve the right to buy a larger stake in Twitter
https://www.theverge.com/2022/4/11/23020...ectors-sec

This should give one a good idea of the way forward. 

[In the European market, Tesla market share has shrunk from 31% to 13.9% compared to VW with 25% market share.]

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/electr...nd-brands/
[As the European EV offer has grown, so has the competition and Tesla no longer holds such a dominant position within the market. Two years ago, the US manufacturer held a 31% share of the BEV market, thanks largely to the arrival of the Model 3.

In 2021, Tesla was the most popular BEV brand with 167,549 units across 28 European markets, however, its market share fell to 13.9% and it outsold Volkswagen by just 1192 cars.]


China side Tesla is also only a small 5.2% of the total EV cars sold in an increasingly crowded EV market.

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/03/01/the...n-january/


GLOBALLY Tesla has 14% with VW and BYD closing in as the years go by. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/...3077683423
[Tesla leads all others, selling slightly over 936,000 units in 2021. This gave the company a market share of nearly 14%. Close behind Tesla was the VW Group, with just over 11% of the market last year. Chinese-based BYD was third (9%); followed by GM (7.6%); Stellantis, an Amsterdam-based company (6%); Hyundai Motor (5%); and BMW Group (4.8%). Mercedes and Toyota were in the top 12. Ford was noticeably absent.]


I believe in the end, probably 1 or 2 years time the EV space will be increasing crowded with the bigger players maybe having around 5-10% of the pie each. 

And with driverless automation stuck at level 2, Tesla's valuation is likely to come crashing down to be more in line with some of the other larger car makers, possibly around 175billion market cap. Tesla share price valuation should come in line with PE of only around 25 to 30 eventually vs. the current 110+ PE

[Behappyalways]

I got a funny feeling that the boss is trying to cut his stake in Tesla....but need an excuse to sell.....Twitter......maybe Coke...anyway the stock price is coming down....

Gordon Johnson: Tesla Just Went "Ex-Growth", Last Quarter's EPS Was Helped By $1/Share In Non-Core Items
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gordon...core-items

[BlueKelah]

I got a funny feeling that the boss is trying to cut his stake in Tesla....but need an excuse to sell.....Twitter......maybe Coke...anyway the stock price is coming down....

Gordon Johnson: Tesla Just Went "Ex-Growth", Last Quarter's EPS Was Helped By $1/Share In Non-Core Items
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gordon...core-items

Yup you hit the nail on the head. I think he knows Tesla stock price is maxxed out in valuation and trying to extract what he can to reinvest in other pursuits. 

Tesla stil market leader for EV globally but in the main Chinese market and European market has lost to local companies already. USA wise just a matter of time before the Fords and GMs catch up. 

While TEsla may become the next apple of cars, and become very cash flow positive in the future, I do not think they have anything that will let them monopolise the future car industry. Their share of market will be probably 10-15% and stay there. Then they will be valued as a normal non tech low growth company.

[Wildreamz]

I got a funny feeling that the boss is trying to cut his stake in Tesla....but need an excuse to sell.....Twitter......maybe Coke...anyway the stock price is coming down....

Gordon Johnson: Tesla Just Went "Ex-Growth", Last Quarter's EPS Was Helped By $1/Share In Non-Core Items
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gordon...core-items

Sure. Twitter is a great way to diversify his wealth away from Tesla, and he is serious about buying The Coca-Cola Company to add cocaine back into coke. You hit the nail on the head.

(vested)

[BlueKelah]

I got a funny feeling that the boss is trying to cut his stake in Tesla....but need an excuse to sell.....Twitter......maybe Coke...anyway the stock price is coming down....

Gordon Johnson: Tesla Just Went "Ex-Growth", Last Quarter's EPS Was Helped By $1/Share In Non-Core Items
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gordon...core-items

Sure. Twitter is a great way to diversify his wealth away from Tesla, and he is serious about buying The Coca-Cola Company to add cocaine back into coke. You hit the nail on the head.

(vested)

He is not diversifying. The main reason I reckon he wants twitter is so that he can kick that guy off the platform. You know the young guy that has the software to gather all the flight data and publish where the ElonJET goes? I can guarantee that will be the first twitter account to get banned once he takes it private.