Tesla

[dreamybear]

I suppose also the more fortunate ones in the older generation who have invested in SG properties decades ago wld have seen much wealth appreciation. As a result, they may be more inclined to use their cash to make big bets.

In this time and age, I think even forecasting 5 years down the road is near impossible, how then does one spot a 10 bagger without a lot of luck ?

Perhaps a feasible solution for the young investor is to make concentrated investments & aiming for 3x-5x instead of 10x or beyond. For e.g., invest in 5 stocks with $75,000 each - 3 ending up 5x, 2 ending up losing 50% will still net ard $1m.

[weijian]

Dear VBs,

A gentle reminder not to steer out of topic.

Moderator

[Wildreamz]

..

In this time and age, I think even forecasting 5 years down the road is near impossible, how then does one spot a 10 bagger without a lot of luck ?

..

I can't comment about finding 10x baggers with pinpoint accuracy; to me, an investment is successful and worthwhile as long as it produces above average (ie >7%) annual returns.

Anyway, with regards to Tesla and investments similar to Tesla, it always helps to look out for "best-of-breed". After researching on Tesla, generally the next step would be to survey the global automotive/energy industry, to see if industry trends and competitive landscape conforms to your thesis. Naturally your research would converge to two companies: Tesla and BYD (also Sunrun in the energy sector), at least in 2016 (top two market leaders at the time). And BYD subsequent financial underperformance (at least to me) relative to the EV industry, misguided strategy to focus on PHEVs (hybrids), lost of market leadership both globally and their home market (China), will lead you sell out at a good gain (even if you made a mistake, it doesn't necessarily leads to a lost of capital).

Hope this (analyzing how did we get to the conclusion of buying Tesla even when it was still early in the growth cycle) isn't considered off-topic.

[Wildreamz]

Anyway, I'm aware that PHEVs has seen a resurgence in Europe recently. Recent growth in PHEVs in some European countries grew faster than BEVs (full battery electric vehicles; https://cleantechnica.com/2021/08/02/eur...celand-uk/).

But IMO, PHEV is just a stop-gap, and it's going to be a very short-lived stop gap. The best option right now, is for traditional automakers to go All-In into BEV technology.

Why do I say that? Consider a more "mature" EV market such as China: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_energy...s_in_China

While both PHEV and BEV sales grew in the beginning, eventually PHEV (an imperfect improvement over ICE) sales would inevitably stagnate; and eventually obsolete. 

It neither has the full performance, cost advantage, nor environmental advantage of EVs. Reminds me a bit of Windows vs Mac. 

Windows: usually half-hearted attempt to push technology forward, while doing everything you can to maintain backward compatibility; results in limited improvement in each generation, and half-hearted adoption by developers (even users, who held out on Windows XP and Windows 7 for years). MacOS: sometimes courageously forgo some backward compatibility so big sweeping architectural change will be swiftly adopted (because it's the only option); as a result you see quick uptake (most recently, of ARM-based MacOS) by developers (and thus, users) once it was released.

Peace.

[Wildreamz]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/auto-makers...1628110425

Auto Makers Aim to Boost EV Sales to 40%-50% of U.S. Sales by 2030

---

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/05/biden-pu...-2030.html

Biden to push for electric vehicles to make up 40% or more of U.S. auto sales by 2030

[Wildreamz]

https://www.businessinsider.com/vw-ceo-h...age-2021-8

Volkswagen CEO's vacation snafu led to a scathing review of a rival to Tesla's supercharging network, highlighting the tough road to electric-car adoption

*Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess roasted Ionity for his poor experience with its charging network.
*The company is partially owned by VW and part of a bid to compete with Tesla's Supercharger stations.
*The CEO's vacation mishap highlights several major advantages Tesla drivers have over others.

[BlueKelah]

5 Teslas Have Crashed On The Same Road In California
"Hands on wheel, eyes on road, vehicle just wanted to keep going straight," said BBFLG. "It barely followed the curve at the last minute and even with hands on the wheel, there was no way I could stop or turn as it entered a gravel-covered area."

BBFLG also complained about the fact that his Model X mistook the moon for a yellow light on the same weekend as this crash and kept trying to slow down.

An avid Tesla customer, he has previously owned a 2016 Model S P90D and a 2016 Model X. What's also concerning is that he noted that "several calls and emails" to Tesla about the latest crash in Yosemite haven't been returned with much interest from the automaker.

https://carbuzz.com/news/5-teslas-have-c...california

[weijian]

The chart of Reward vs Risk, probably sums it up for Elon Musk and Tesla (notice that i put Musk in front of Tesla)

I'm going to try to explain Elon Musk’s behavior.

What kind of 32-year-old thinks they can take on GM, Ford, and NASA at the same time? A freakin’ maniac. The kind of person who thinks normal constraints don’t apply to them – not in an egotistical way, but in a genuine, believe-it-in-your-bones way. Which is also the kind of person who doesn’t worry about, say, Twitter etiquette.

http://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/natural-maniacs/

Always felt Morgan Housel described Elon Musk and Tesla perfectly then, and I still do.

Along the lines of Morgan Housel's how history hangs by a thread - there was clearly a time in late 2018 (or 2019) where Tesla had a real danger of blowing up before it obtained the necessary financing. Now due to its immense market cap, it is able to obtain new capital cheaply.

Now in an alternate history, Tesla could have sold out to GM and become its EV subsidiary. WHAT IF?

FOR MUDDY WATERS INVESTORS ONLY

The truth is that acceptable bullshit versus lack of integrity is situational and requires accurately reading the bullshit tolerance of your audience. Jedi Mastery is being able to set your audience’s acceptance level for the amount of bullshit you want to deliver. Nobody embodies this better than Elon.

While I always admired that Elon demonstrated the viability of EVs with the Model S and has built rockets that really do innovate and work, I disdained his incessant bullshit. I felt it was an unnecessary stain on his legacy. But with what I think is newfound wisdom about the way the world needs to work, I’m less hostile. In my view, the Tesla shorts have been right and wrong all along about Tesla’s problem.

https://assets.empirefinancialresearch.c...-11-21.pdf

[Wildreamz]

https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/19/22633...oid-ai-day

Elon Musk says Tesla is working on humanoid robots

[Wildreamz]

The truth is that acceptable bullshit versus lack of integrity is situational and requires accurately reading the bullshit tolerance of your audience. Jedi Mastery is being able to set your audience’s acceptance level for the amount of bullshit you want to deliver. Nobody embodies this better than Elon.

While I always admired that Elon demonstrated the viability of EVs with the Model S and has built rockets that really do innovate and work, I disdained his incessant bullshit. I felt it was an unnecessary stain on his legacy. But with what I think is newfound wisdom about the way the world needs to work, I’m less hostile. In my view, the Tesla shorts have been right and wrong all along about Tesla’s problem.

Instead of psycho-analyzing the character of Elon Musk (and fail at it); shorts would have found more success, if they had focused more energy on analyzing the fundamentals and trajectory of Tesla's business.

2c.

(vested)