Tesla

[BlueKelah]

Tesla buys US$1.5bil of Bitcoin.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...pto-surges

well done wildreamz on your tesla, can retire liao  

Tesla car sales growth is slowing down, getting outcompeted in Major market like china and europe plus in USA the gov subsidy is now gone. 

I guess Elon Musk have to continue to spin the company by buying bitcoin. It seems more company will follow as any company acquiring bitcoin will have a premium added to their stock price just for holding it.

Gonna be fun to watch what happens when all the bubbles pop.

[Wildreamz]

(1) Revenues:

Tesla revenue growth actually accelerated last quarter (45.5% compared to 39.16% the quarter before), and guided to accelerate for the rest of the year.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/chart...la/revenue

(2) Profits:

As cost of battery drops (-13% in 2020 despite COVID), margin will continue to improve. EV subsidies wise, I think bears are being overtly pessimistic. Governments around the world are increasing attention to climate change issues (including Singapore and the Biden administration). 

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack...t-137-kwh/

(3) Bitcoins:

I'm neutral on this. But knowing Elon, Tesla's involvement with crypto probably will not stop at hedging cash on hand and facilitating transactions. 

Let's see how the next few years unfold.

(still vested)

[BlueKelah]

(1) Revenues:

Tesla revenue growth actually accelerated last quarter (45.5% compared to 39.16% the quarter before), and guided to accelerate for the rest of the year.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/chart...la/revenue

(2) Profits:

As cost of battery drops (-13% in 2020 despite COVID), margin will continue to improve. EV subsidies wise, I think bears are being overtly pessimistic. Governments around the world are increasing attention to climate change issues (including Singapore and the Biden administration). 

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack...t-137-kwh/

(3) Bitcoins:

I'm neutral on this. But knowing Elon, Tesla's involvement with crypto probably will not stop at hedging cash on hand and facilitating transactions. 

Let's see how the next few years unfold.

(still vested)

Revenues wise YoY sounds impressive but before this Tesla revenue growth was doubling every year. I expect revenue growth to moderate as more competition comes up in every market Tesla enters. Gross profit margins are also quite flat now below 20%. This is a good write up.

https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-m...-analysis/

This is also an article in forbes that highlights some happenings in Teslas key markets.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/...3884531bf0

I reckon Teslas performance this year will depend on their sales in china, which I think will be below expectations, given how the chinese gov is now turning around and giving Tesla a hard time now after their own chinese EV companies probably successfully done some "technology transfer" as they always do. I do not think there is much problem with Tesla 3 at all. 
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electr...lity-fears

Last years performance is more or less due to Chinas gigafactory going online and churning out EVs. But looks like the China–Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park fiasco is now happening to Tesla. Not surprising. Why do you think China even allowed Tesla to go in and set up the EV factory and give Elon a warm welcome? They aiming for Teslas EV build and also AI self driving tech.


Bitcoin is really Elons answer to pump up the stock as he probably knows coming quarter revenue growth will be affected by the problems in china. He even mentioned buying gold. Why dont he try and startup a gigafactory in brazil with the excess cash? Lol Diworsification?

Excited to see what 2021 holds...

[Wildreamz]

Most importantly, (1) what's the ceiling of their growth; (2) what is the final profitability; (3) how fast can they get there?

It's easy to cherry-pick overtly positive and/or negative article to support preconceived conclusions (confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance etc.). More productive to just let the facts play out.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4403081...nuary-2021

[BlueKelah]

Most importantly, (1) what's the ceiling of their growth; (2) what is the final profitability; (3) how fast can they get there?

It's easy to cherry-pick overtly positive and/or negative article to support preconceived conclusions (confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance etc.). More productive to just let the facts play out.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4403081...nuary-2021

Not cherry picking and i do not think any of the articles are overtly pessimistic. 

Just looking at Tesla's revenue growth, IMHO their doubling growth per year is probably over. They would need an extra 2x gigafactory and 2 big markets that are mature enough for EVs (South America? India? Africa?) in order to double their growth/production again, which probably wont happen now that Elon is dabbling in bitcoin.

But you are right, lets see how it plays out. who knows if bitcoin will shoot to 100k or 1m a coin.

[Wildreamz]

"probably wont happen now that Elon is dabbling in bitcoin"

That alone is a big stretch and very pessimistic, lol.

https://evertiq.com/news/49500

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafact...karnataka/

[Rocinante2]

Tesla is not a car company. 

It is an energy solution company. It's so happen that car is one of the major consumption of oil. 

You can do your valuation this way. Don't look at one-two years. Need travel back to the future 5-10 years from now. 

Assume global car sales per annum 90mil x % market share (Elon said 20%)
ASP of Tesla
Margin of auto mfg ~8-10%
Margin of auto dealership ~5%
PE (you think it is auto co then use 8-10, you think it's a tech co then use 30-50 i.e. 30 is big giant like Apple which is difficult to gain more market share from now, 50 is Nvidia or AMD which is gaining share). 

Then you still need to figure out value of
1. Insurance biz
2. Autonomous driving
3. Solar City
4. Battery for power grid
5. Robotaxi

Don't forget this company have a sister co Space X setting up Starlink Satellite network which could be use to connect to each Tesla i.e. own internet connection independent of others. 

Wait... there is also the Boring company which build high speed underground track to move car around the city. 

Best part of all, Elon being Elon see the potential in Bitcoin. He may take the following steps
1. Approval by SEC to issue new shares. - Done
2. Buy Bitcoin hence tie Tesla share price partly to Bitcoin - Done.
3. Issue new shares for Bitcoin => drive up Bitcoin => drive up Tesla share price.

Worst come to worst. Just use Cathie Wood's valuation. 

If there is a God you need to pray for the market this year it is "Wood滴神ARK!"

[Rocinante2]

(1) Revenues:

Tesla revenue growth actually accelerated last quarter (45.5% compared to 39.16% the quarter before), and guided to accelerate for the rest of the year.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/chart...la/revenue

(2) Profits:

As cost of battery drops (-13% in 2020 despite COVID), margin will continue to improve. EV subsidies wise, I think bears are being overtly pessimistic. Governments around the world are increasing attention to climate change issues (including Singapore and the Biden administration). 

https://about.bnef.com/blog/battery-pack...t-137-kwh/

(3) Bitcoins:

I'm neutral on this. But knowing Elon, Tesla's involvement with crypto probably will not stop at hedging cash on hand and facilitating transactions. 

Let's see how the next few years unfold.

(still vested)

Revenues wise YoY sounds impressive but before this Tesla revenue growth was doubling every year. I expect revenue growth to moderate as more competition comes up in every market Tesla enters. Gross profit margins are also quite flat now below 20%. This is a good write up.

https://stockdividendscreener.com/auto-m...-analysis/

This is also an article in forbes that highlights some happenings in Teslas key markets.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/...3884531bf0

I reckon Teslas performance this year will depend on their sales in china, which I think will be below expectations, given how the chinese gov is now turning around and giving Tesla a hard time now after their own chinese EV companies probably successfully done some "technology transfer" as they always do. I do not think there is much problem with Tesla 3 at all. 
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electr...lity-fears

Last years performance is more or less due to Chinas gigafactory going online and churning out EVs. But looks like the China–Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park fiasco is now happening to Tesla. Not surprising. Why do you think China even allowed Tesla to go in and set up the EV factory and give Elon a warm welcome? They aiming for Teslas EV build and also AI self driving tech.


Bitcoin is really Elons answer to pump up the stock as he probably knows coming quarter revenue growth will be affected by the problems in china. He even mentioned buying gold. Why dont he try and startup a gigafactory in brazil with the excess cash? Lol Diworsification?

Excited to see what 2021 holds...

One step at a time la... US + CH + EU ramp up first... 1mil capacity each then go to other market. 

DM easier to setup charging infra.
EM wait long long ha.... even Hyundai that is active in India Indonesia see EV only take off in EM 5-10 years after 2030.

[Raks]

Tesla is not a car company. 

It is an energy solution company. It's so happen that car is one of the major consumption of oil. 

You can do your valuation this way. Don't look at one-two years. Need travel back to the future 5-10 years from now. 

Assume global car sales per annum 90mil x % market share (Elon said 20%)
ASP of Tesla
Margin of auto mfg ~8-10%
Margin of auto dealership ~5%
PE (you think it is auto co then use 8-10, you think it's a tech co then use 30-50 i.e. 30 is big giant like Apple which is difficult to gain more market share from now, 50 is Nvidia or AMD which is gaining share). 

Then you still need to figure out value of
1. Insurance biz
2. Autonomous driving
3. Solar City
4. Battery for power grid
5. Robotaxi

Don't forget this company have a sister co Space X setting up Starlink Satellite network which could be use to connect to each Tesla i.e. own internet connection independent of others. 

Wait... there is also the Boring company which build high speed underground track to move car around the city. 

Best part of all, Elon being Elon see the potential in Bitcoin. He may take the following steps
1. Approval by SEC to issue new shares. - Done
2. Buy Bitcoin hence tie Tesla share price partly to Bitcoin - Done.
3. Issue new shares for Bitcoin => drive up Bitcoin => drive up Tesla share price.

Worst come to worst. Just use Cathie Wood's valuation. 

If there is a God you need to pray for the market this year it is "Wood滴神ARK!"

You mean Elon Musk or you mean NASDAQ: TSLA? (I would love to invest in Elon Musk if he securitized his net-worth.) "Tesla is not a car company", or the old saying of "McDonald's is a real estate company" can only push so far. 

As an OPMI, I look at the company I invest in, not the overall group, not the owner, his family, affiliation etc.. The "I" - investor part makes me look at how would I breakeven or gain from investing in a company - capital appreciation (need to sell one day) or sustainable dividend. 

I'm very interested in seeing the future Elon's building, synergising all his ventures (you miss out Neuralink?). Starlink for example, may wipe out all telcos in the world(?).
But all these value may not materialized; or if materialized may not fall onto TSLA bottom line. 

If you need the courage to stay vested: 
- TSLA is the market leader in EV. I haven't seen one report that say it's not- unless you are talking about electric trucks, scooter, solar ship tankers. 
- Carbon credit market will stay until 2030, at least. This will be a viable business as long as there are fossil fuel users. Heavy equipment, including those in aviation, shipping, locomotives... may have 20-50 years depreciated to go and they still take fossil fuel.   
- Clean image in energy business. Every fossil fuel company is transforming itself as energy company and they are moving fast; but none have the "clean" image as TSLA does. 
- The latest valuation I saw is ~$1,200. We are talking about 50% upside. 
- Elon Musk has done exceptionally well for TSLA shareholders  - not the speculator, but those who believe in Elon and TSLA. Believe and you will be saved. The possible stunts with Bitcoin - it isn't bad if you are going long on TSLA. 

It takes guts to invest/ not invest in Tesla. So you are a winner regardless   .

[Wildreamz]

(1) Revenue:
Tesla has trailing PS ratio of 27.76. If ~50% topline growth holds, then by the same time next year, PS ratio = 18.5; by Feb 2023, PS ratio = 12.4; by 2024, revenues would exceed US$100bil. This is plausible since traditional auto companies have revenues around US$100+ (e.g. GM) to 200+ (e.g. Toyota) bil.

(2) Margins:
Investors need to ask themselves, what is the final profit margin? Will it be similar to ICE cars, or will they be significantly different? Margins of Tesla might be significantly more than traditional auto-companies due to brand recognition, direct-to-consumer sales, minimal marketing expense, vertical integration, continuous decline of battery cost, less complexity in manufacturing, drive-assistance software (which Tesla already sells as an add-on) etc. This is before other adjacent market potential is considered (solar roof, Powerwalls, recurring cash flow of Tesla's supercharger network, utility scale battery storage, tax credits etc.)

If revenue growth trajectory and final profit margin assumptions hold, then current valuation is likely justified. 

Peace.

(vested, but not adding more at current levels)