Tesla

[Wildreamz]

Bloomberg Model 3 Live Tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/


On other news, Model 3 production tick up and hit 1,058/week today (29th March 2018). Tesla may be on their way to becoming cash flow positive for the first time if they manage to hit their 2,000/week Model 3 production target this year. This current pull back may be an opportunity for prospective investor to take position or existing investor to add on to theirs.

(vested, not a buy or sell call)

[weijian]

Tesla Asks for Model 3 Factory Volunteers to Prove ‘Haters’ Wrong

Tesla Inc. exhorted its factory workers to prove wrong the “haters” betting against the company and is letting a small number of volunteers join the effort to ramp up output of the crucial Model 3 line.

In a pair of internal memos last week, the heads of engineering and production spelled out measures to free up workers for the Model 3 line and challenged them to reach production goals. Doug Field, the engineering chief, told staff that if they can exceed 300 Model 3s a day, it would be an “incredible victory” at a time when short-sellers and critics are increasingly doubting the company’s ability to fulfill CEO Elon Musk’s vision of building a mass-production electric-vehicle manufacturer.

“I find that personally insulting, and you should too,” Field wrote in the March 23 email. “Let’s make them regret ever betting against us. You will prove a bunch of haters wrong.”

[Wildreamz]

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14538851...-mind.html
Tesla Reports First-Quarter Sales Soon -- 3 Big Questions to Keep in Mind

.. Usually within the first five days after the quarter ends, Tesla Inc. (TSLA - Get Report) releases a report with sales figures from the previous three months. The report, which only usually discloses units sold, will likely go out sometime around April 3 ..

---

Tesla Model 3 Bloomberg Tracker (April 1st 2018): https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

---

Tesla Model 3 production rate continues to tick up. 1.2k per week production rate. Implies a 62k Model 3s per year run rate, that would be a ~60% uptick in unit sales compared to their 2017 numbers.

As reference, in 2017, total number of cars delivered (Model S + X) was 103K (https://www.statista.com/statistics/5022...eliveries/) making them the top 3 EV producer world wide (just behind BYD and BAIC). BMW was kicked out of Top 3 in 2017 by up and coming BAIC in China. When considering pure electric BEVs only, Tesla is No.2 just behind BAIC in 2017. But their unit sales price is of course, way higher.

Sources:
https://wattev2buy.com/record-sales-puts...ler-tesla/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4141634...nuary-2018

Big Questions:
(1) Is this a temporary uptick as Tesla makes it's final sprint before the deadline to report quarterly numbers? Can Tesla sustain this run rate, without sacrificing quality and Model S and X production rate?
(2) Will Tesla becomes cash flow positive, and profitable (as suggested by Elon Musk himself) this year?
(3) Will Tesla face insolvency before (2)?

Regarding (3), my hunch is, as long as there are investors with deep pockets, who buys into Elon Musk personally, they should have no problem. 

(vested)

[cyclone]

Elon Musk Sends April Fools' Tweets Joking of Tesla Bankruptcy

By Craig Trudell
April 2, 2018, 6:25 AM GMT+8
From Hyperdrive

After the worst month for Tesla Inc. shares in more than seven years, punctuated by company blog posts about the death of a Model X driver, Elon Musk is joking about his electric-car maker going bankrupt.

“Despite intense efforts to raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt,” the chief executive officer wrote in an April Fools’ Day tweet on Sunday. Another post included a photo of Musk and a message that he “was found passed out against a Tesla Model 3, surrounded by ‘Teslaquilla’ bottles, the tracks of dried tears still visible on his

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...bankruptcy

[holymage]

That’s not to say the road is impassable. A few decades ago, South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Group was knocked for fragile engines and rust-sensitive body panels. Now it’s one of the five biggest manufacturers in the world, selling about 1.25 million cars in the U.S. last year, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. The group also has factories in Alabama and Georgia.

“Competitors emerging from China must be taken seriously,” said Matthias Mueller, former chief executive officer of Volkswagen, Europe’s biggest carmaker. “I visited China for the first time in 1989, and the development that has happened there since then is just impressive.”

“China has made no secret of its ambition to have a really big and powerful auto industry,” said Michael Dunne, president of consulting firm Dunne Automotive Ltd. in Hong Kong. “China does intend to lead and dominate the electric-vehicle industry.”

China, already the world’s biggest vehicle market, overtook the U.S. as No. 1 for EVs in 2015. This week’s Beijing auto show will feature 174 EV models, with 124 of them developed domestically. China’s knack for speedy adaptation has put the country in a position to lead the auto industry in new technologies, Toyota Motor Corp.’s China Chief Executive Officer Kazuhiro Kobayashi said.

President Xi Jinping showed his determination to rewrite the rules of the automotive industry during a 2014 trip to Shanghai. “Developing new-energy vehicles is the only way for China to move from a big automobile country to a powerful automobile hub,” he said when visiting SAIC Motor Corp., a Shanghai government-owned company that partners with GM and Volkswagen in China.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/...of-driving

[weijian]

While he has made gaffles on Uber previously (Benchmark Bill Gurley compared his valuation of Uber was akin to sizing up the future automobile market by using the no. of horse carriage users), but Prof Aswath Damodaran's latest blog on Tesla might be illuminating:

To hit the "fair valuation" of 400usd/share (current share price is 340usd), Tesla needs to deal the Royal Flush - 10x increase in revenue + 200bp higher operating margins than the best company BMW + 3x more efficient use of capital.

Tesla - new economy? new rules? Or just plain boring manufacturing? Or they could develop space transport and then make a killing when the world comes to an end by virtue of their monopoly to bring people to space?

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2018...oring.html

[Wildreamz]

Aswath Damodaran's analysis in video form: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diitEjoruhY

My guess is that, in 10 years, the auto industry will be a very different place. Auto ownership will be much lower, with at least several electrified, autonomous "taxi" fleets that you could hail with your phone (Uber, Waymo, Tesla Network etc.), and many new alternatives to driving, such as last mile solutions (Ofo etc.) real-time ride-sharing (Grabhitch, Uberpool) and carsharing (BlueSG etc.).

So I'm not sure anyone is able to model that with any precision. Tesla is also expanding to energy storage, and related businesses (solar roofs etc.); Elon is also doing several things at the side (Boring Company, Hyperloop etc.) that might change the landscape once again. So those will complicate things as well.

So let's see.

(vested in Tesla)

[Wildreamz]

Model 3 delivery just hit all time new high, within striking distance of the promised 5000/week target. Would Tesla really reach GAAP profitability by this year. As well as give shorts a "rude awakening"?

[BlueKelah]

Model 3 delivery just hit all time new high, within striking distance of the promised 5000/week target. Would Tesla really reach GAAP profitability by this year. As well as give shorts a "rude awakening"?

Unlikely, their balance sheet looks like GM one before it went bankrupt chapter 11 in 2009.

And hitting a delayed production target with a tent is unsustainable manpower and costs as well. 

Saw some bear videos and some salient points pointed out. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.busines...upt-2018-5

[BlueKelah]

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/11/news/co...index.html
Martin Tripp — who has been sued by Tesla (TSLA) and accused by Musk of attempting to sabotage the company — claims Tesla installed faulty batteries into some vehicles and placed battery cells dangerously close together.

Tripp also alleges Tesla has drastically overstated to investors how many Model 3 vehicles the company produces. Tesla allegedly inflated its statistics by as much as 44%.

The tip was filed with the SEC on July 6, and a press release about its contents was made public by Tripp's attorney, Stuart Meissner, on Wednesday.