Tesla

[weijian]

This would be a major game changer for Tesla, as all the existing US autos have JVs in China that are earning them big money.

Tesla Said Close to Agreeing on Plan for China Production
Local plant would allow automaker to bypass 25% import tariff
Tesla’s China revenue tripled to more than $1 billion in 2016

Tesla Inc. is close to an agreement to produce vehicles in China for the first time, giving the electric-car maker better access to the world’s largest auto market, according to people familiar with the matter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...tion-plant

[weijian]

I think the successful execution of the model 3 (2017) is key to Tesla future at least for the next 1-2 years timeframe. As with any growth stock investing, its a combination firstly of the leadership and employees of the company whom they have choosen to hire that determines if they will be successful, assuming that the market is ready for the product.

We should not be quick to jump to the conclusion that the major car companies today have what it is to deal properly with the changes. But it looks already like Tesla is on track to seriously disrupt the incumbents. Having capital is not a key advantage today. It takes a combination of deep knowledge in the key process, marketing, and IP. iP for electric vechicles are a completely different animal from ICE cars.

Just to share what my observation. Elon Musk has the ability get very talented people to join Tesla since its founding and over the years. They are not just building electric car but replacing the current mode of transportation, factory as a product, energy consumption and generation. Electric cars work far better than internal combustion engine cars and its just a matter of building out the infrastructure. The stock price will reflect if model 3 is successfully executed in the next couple of months.

Mass market Model 3 is out this month. Half a million worth of pre-orders is not large if one were to compare to China and the low hurdle to do so (1k deposit), but i would say in terms of pre-orders, it is huge. Expectations are high - will it be fulfilled?

Tesla Rolls Out Its First Model 3, and It’s Elon’s

It’s finally here: The Model 3, Tesla’s $35,000 electric gamechanger. A single black Model 3 rolled off the production line Friday with a serial number all its own, kicking off a company-defining six months. The car will belong to Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO and co-founder, who shared images of it on Twitterover the weekend. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...t-s-elon-s

[Vlx]

It's probably the biggest ever preorder for a consumer durable product. 500M USD deposit translating into potential revenue of 17.5B USD of revenue.

[weijian]

Some comments about Tesla from David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital Q2017. Gutsy enough to short some of the famous "overvalued by traditional metrics and comparison" tech stocks (Amazon, Tesla, Netflix) at this time - too early or a total miss? - maybe we will know in another 2years (even Michael Burry of US subprime mortgage fame took ~1.5-2 years for his bets to win big.

- People look at Elon Musk, think he is the next Steve Jobs and associate Tesla as the next Apple.
- Musk is a one man show (and one distracted with many ventures)
- Tesla may be capitalized for the next 3 quarters only
- Resale Model S cars will be hitting the market soon and compete with Model 3.
- A study of Tesla's BS shows that deposits are been returned for Model 3.

https://www.docdroid.net/fLckk9R/greenli...pdf#page=3

[weijian]

As Tesla Model 3 Hits the Streets, Where Are the Other Electric Vehicles?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...cktake-q-a

[HitandRun]

As Tesla Model 3 Hits the Streets, Where Are the Other Electric Vehicles?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...cktake-q-a

In case folks missed it, there's an article on Toyota and solid state batteries this week:

Toyota's Plans

Incidentally, I've read one of the research papers which they mentioned using Tin instead of Lithium but I've lost the link. 

Would solid state batteries render Lithium-ion technology obsolete, especially in cars?

[BlueKelah]

As Tesla Model 3 Hits the Streets, Where Are the Other Electric Vehicles?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...cktake-q-a

In case folks missed it, there's an article on Toyota and solid state batteries this week:

Toyota's Plans

Incidentally, I've read one of the research papers which they mentioned using Tin instead of Lithium but I've lost the link. 

Would solid state batteries render Lithium-ion technology obsolete, especially in cars?

This one mentions Sodium Na+ as an alternative which has similar chemical properties to Lithium which is in the same Group I on the periodic table. But Sodium much more abundant and so possibly can make cheaper batteries.
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLa...ivAbstract


I would say wait for handphone to start using solid state batteries first, then maybe EV got chance to use. 
http://www.androidauthority.com/lithium-...ry-726142/

I'd say at this point Tesla is the trend setter now and if they can manage to stay solvent and become profitable with Model 3, other car manufacturers will be playing catch up.

[HitandRun]

This one mentions Sodium Na+ as an alternative which has similar chemical properties to Lithium which is in the same Group I on the periodic table. But Sodium much more abundant and so possibly can make cheaper batteries.
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLa...ivAbstract


I would say wait for handphone to start using solid state batteries first, then maybe EV got chance to use. 
http://www.androidauthority.com/lithium-...ry-726142/

I'd say at this point Tesla is the trend setter now and if they can manage to stay solvent and become profitable with Model 3, other car manufacturers will be playing catch up.

Thanks for the link.

I suspect that Na+ could be a bit further down the road as I've not seen a working prototype yet. But I've found a new link for Toyota solid state battery:
High Performance Solid State Batteries (looks like Lithium is still being used but with other combinations of Sn, P, Si, S).

With regards to Tesla, I fail to see how they can make money with Model 3:

1. According to the Financial Times, "Tesla hopes to persuade buyers of its Model 3 to pay as much as $59,500... based model is $35,000... to increase range from 220miles to 310miles, customers will have to pay $9000 for a larger battery.... other premium features include $5,000 for the auto pilot software..... a further $3,000 is needed to unlock the full self-driving capabilities..."

In Singapore's context, USD35,000 is way above the OMV of compact executive cars like the Audi A4, BMW 320 or Mercedes C180 (which range from SGD32k to 38k). With options, OMV of model 3 could easily exceed SGD50,000. 

2. The main reason why the main automotive manufacturers are not rushing to follow Tesla is because they can't make money selling premium electric cars and NOT because they lack the technology. Tesla has a free pass so far because it didn't have to make money yet. The bulk of cars sold in the world is priced around OMV of SGD20,000 or so and below.

3. The true test of the demand for Tesla's cars will be when the incentives fall off. 

4. Some folks like to compare Tesla with Apple. I think there is a world of difference between them, e.g. there are many more buyers of smart phones than cars AND many more people would baulk at paying thousands more (for a car) than hundreds more (for a phone).

[BRT]

As Tesla Model 3 Hits the Streets, Where Are the Other Electric Vehicles?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...cktake-q-a

In case folks missed it, there's an article on Toyota and solid state batteries this week:

Toyota's Plans

Incidentally, I've read one of the research papers which they mentioned using Tin instead of Lithium but I've lost the link. 

Would solid state batteries render Lithium-ion technology obsolete, especially in cars?

This one mentions Sodium Na+ as an alternative which has similar chemical properties to Lithium which is in the same Group I on the periodic table. But Sodium much more abundant and so possibly can make cheaper batteries.
http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLa...ivAbstract


I would say wait for handphone to start using solid state batteries first, then maybe EV got chance to use. 
http://www.androidauthority.com/lithium-...ry-726142/

I'd say at this point Tesla is the trend setter now and if they can manage to stay solvent and become profitable with Model 3, other car manufacturers will be playing catch up.

A key difference between Na ion and Li ion at this stage is the "speed" of the batt. i.e. Na ion cannot handle rapid charge/discharge as well as Li ion, which means the targeted applications (at the moment) are very different. The rising star for Na ion for quite some time was Aquion Energy (with backers like Bill Gates), but then it went bankrupt. Recently I read somewhere that it was revived (was bought for a fraction).

[specuvestor]

Cant say competition is idle though

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017...-electric/

https://www.ft.com/content/a43ac2ce-3198...ef563ecf9a