(22-03-2016, 08:53 PM)babyblue Wrote:
(22-03-2016, 10:24 AM)CY09 Wrote: This whole episode served to show what can happen when you get "margin called".
Nevertheless, I have taken the chance to exit at 0.089. It was a fun ride but industrial property landscape is one area I do not want to invest much (esp when OKH was only able to sell less than 30% of their new projects). Just want to thank financial institutions for giving me such a chance of a trading gain.
If OKH boss requires a quick loan, feel free to pm me here. 16% interest loan
after some digging i come to the conclusion that the sales for their two new projects, ace buroh and loyang enterprise is well above 30%. ace buroh is quite well sold.
i came to this conclusion from a combination of looking at listings on property portals, crossing out double listings, checking with listed agents, and statistics from JTC/ URA.
to put across a simple stats. For industrial projects that are completing in 2016 ( a category loyang enterprise fall into), the number of unsold units is only about 194 for the whole market in east, central and northeast region(yes jtc has this wierd classification), which has 23 projects. so on average each project has 8 unsold units. even if we assume that loyang enterprise is so lousy that it underperforms by a margin of 200%, thats 24 unsold units, out of about 100 units for the whole project. thats still 75 % sold.
most of the unsold industrial properties in Singapore are in the north! 1400 /2000 unsold units. neither ace buroh or loyang is in the north.
will any other valuebuddies will like to take up the challenge to try and get to their estimates? or share how they will approach this!
Just to point out that these industrial projects revenue recognition is by a completed contracts method.
In other words, even after building and selling the units, the profits do not show up in the income statement yet, they only come up upon TOP
That may provide the catalyst for OKH to suddenly spike up once these uncertainties subside.
Afterall, we all know the main reason for the tanking of the share price is due to margin calls, which technically doesn't affect the fundamentals of the company
Having said that, I have not done much of an analysis of this company. Not sure if there are any hidden value traps
The recent dilution of existing shareholders is one such trap