Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT)

[SeekingAlpha]

I am shocked. Those who applied 100 or 1000 lots are given more than 70% of the amount that they applied for. I cannot recall of such "GENEROSITY" in ipo allocation. for those who were allotted 700 lots, 1 cent down is $7,000 loss.

all i can say is today is your "lucky" day if you get such an "excellent" fill..

[Temperament]

Strange phenomenon indeed! Look like sellers will be more than buyers. Hope it's the other way round.
Not vested.

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I thought MIIF already stated that the capital return from TBC sale is $0.4439 / unit ?

I thought i read it where it stated it is an example only before IPO.

So if we take this example as "truth" for calculation of entitlement for those who opt for cash, isn't the extra allocations of APPT need to be taken into consideration also? Correct me if i am wrong?

Hi Uncle Temperament, here is my understanding:

(1) The capital return is already fixed as mentioned by Nick. It is 443.29/lot. It is AN EXAMPLE for '1000units' calculation' but the return/share (ie. 443.29/lot) number is not an example.

(2) If u read the APTT pricing announcement again (1st few sentences of pg2), it has mentioned that there may be additional cash distribution (record date on 9th May) if the 'actual MIIF consideration payable' is more than the cash equivalent of MIIF APPT units'. I am not exactly sure what 'actual MIIF consideration payable' is, but it may mean the over-allocation portion that u have mentioned.

(3) If the over-allocation means returning this excess cash to shareholders and MIIF takes the cash for ~35mil shares (since it owns only half of TBC), then that is at least another cool 2cents/share?

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I have said this before... this is an unwanted offspring of MIIF. If it is good, it would have been trade saled.

For it to be IPO, it speaks of its trade salability.

Tomorrow, there will be tonnes of sellers - MIIF holders opting for APTT, staggers from both placement and public tranche. Just look at public tranche - 1m gets 750k if successful (36/50 chance)

Yield support here is a cold comfort if we look at Hutch Port.

Good luck to all.

Odd Lot Vested
GG

Here are some statistics:

(1) Out of 525.8mil APTT units for MIIF, shareholders elected for 335.7mil APTT units. That is a 64% take-up rate. Taking away MIMAL's share, it is about evenly split between cash and scrip.

(2) Distribution of shares as below (estimation)
- Placement=530.5mil shares (~53%)
- MIIF holders=335.7mil shares (~33%)
- Public=70mil shares (7%)
- Over allocation=70mil shares (7%)

it does indeed look like there will be a supply gut tomorrow.

Hi Weijian,
Thanks. My apology for the poor understanding of the example.

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I have said this before... this is an unwanted offspring of MIIF. If it is good, it would have been trade saled.

For it to be IPO, it speaks of its trade salability.

Tomorrow, there will be tonnes of sellers - MIIF holders opting for APTT, staggers from both placement and public tranche. Just look at public tranche - 1m gets 750k if successful (36/50 chance)

Yield support here is a cold comfort if we look at Hutch Port.

Good luck to all.

Odd Lot Vested
GG

I am shocked. Those who applied 100 or 1000 lots are given more than 70% of the amount that they applied for. I cannot recall of such "GENEROSITY" in ipo allocation. for those who were allotted 700 lots, 1 cent down is $7,000 loss.

Very strange and rare phenomenon indeed! Wonder sellers more or buyers for IPO 1st day market? Interesting to observe
Not vested.

[header]

I am shocked. Those who applied 100 or 1000 lots are given more than 70% of the amount that they applied for. I cannot recall of such "GENEROSITY" in ipo allocation. for those who were allotted 700 lots, 1 cent down is $7,000 loss.

all i can say is today is your "lucky" day if you get such an "excellent" fill..

How high this can go I do not know,
But it will be at least IPO price and not below.
As long monies in the system continue to flow,
sentiment will remain high and the bear will hide in the shadow.

My 5 mins poem to share...

[lonewolf]

I am shocked. Those who applied 100 or 1000 lots are given more than 70% of the amount that they applied for. I cannot recall of such "GENEROSITY" in ipo allocation. for those who were allotted 700 lots, 1 cent down is $7,000 loss.

If you can afford $970,000 to apply for 1,000 lots, the $7,500 loss per 1c drop is probably a drop in the bucket (unless you borrowed to apply, then that's a different story)

By my calculation, the 270 successful applicants who applied for >100 lots were allocated a total of 63,360 lots, which is 87.71% of the 70,000 lots for the public tranche and >10% of the entire IPO. That a lot of shares held in the hand of so few. 270 is slightly more than a quarter of those who were successful.

I'm a little perplexed at the allocation strategy. So it will be interesting to see how this played out. (Not vested. Opted for cash via MIIF)

[sgd]

usually lot allocation if it is hot ipo subscribe 10 lot only get 1-2 lots is the norm. If you are getting 70% allocation means is not a very good IPO.

hmm .. how to tell "before hand" whether an IPO will be good to subscribe or not? I learned from very experienced sifu many years ago. Generally If there are 2 underwriters is a good IPO. If there is only 1 underwriter for the IPO then just sell your farm and buy that stock as much as you can.

Underwriters have a lot of risk they don't earn commission for nothing, if the IPO launch is not well taken up they have to absorb all the unsold shares. So if IPO prospectus indicate there is only 1 sole underwriter means that underwriter is very confident of the launch to be a success. And If is good deal why need/want to share your commission with others?

But if underwriter is not confident they will try to get others to co-underwrite means if the launch is not successful everybody has to take a share to absorb unsold stock. In this case there were so many underwriters.

So rather than they absorb and stuck with it, they throw it to those kiasu people who oversubscribed.

[lonewolf]

hmm .. how to tell "before hand" whether an IPO will be good to subscribe or not? I learned from very experienced sifu many years ago. Generally If there are 2 underwriters is a good IPO. If there is only 1 underwriter for the IPO then just sell your farm and buy that stock as much as you can.

Wah! First time I hear about this 'underwriter' theory; but it makes sense.

In summary:

1 underwriter: DIE DIE MUST BUY!
2 underwriters: CAN BUY!
3 or more underwriters: YOU BUY YOU DIE!

Very interesting. I may be tempted to collate this to recent IPO to see if it held up.

[sgd]

hmm .. how to tell "before hand" whether an IPO will be good to subscribe or not? I learned from very experienced sifu many years ago. Generally If there are 2 underwriters is a good IPO. If there is only 1 underwriter for the IPO then just sell your farm and buy that stock as much as you can.

Wah! First time I hear about this 'underwriter' theory; but it makes sense.

In summary:

1 underwriter: DIE DIE MUST BUY!
2 underwriters: CAN BUY!
3 or more underwriters: YOU BUY YOU DIE!

Very interesting. I may be tempted to collate this to recent IPO to see if it held up.

lol!

[specuvestor]

hmm .. how to tell "before hand" whether an IPO will be good to subscribe or not? I learned from very experienced sifu many years ago. Generally If there are 2 underwriters is a good IPO. If there is only 1 underwriter for the IPO then just sell your farm and buy that stock as much as you can.

Underwriters have a lot of risk they don't earn commission for nothing, if the IPO launch is not well taken up they have to absorb all the unsold shares. So if IPO prospectus indicate there is only 1 sole underwriter means that underwriter is very confident of the launch to be a success. And If is good deal why need/want to share your commission with others?

But if underwriter is not confident they will try to get others to co-underwrite means if the launch is not successful everybody has to take a share to absorb unsold stock. In this case there were so many underwriters.

So rather than they absorb and stuck with it, they throw it to those kiasu people who oversubscribed.

The book building process is more complicated than that. Sometimes more underwriters and bookrunners are needed because 1) issue is big 2) sales channel needed. I think focus on the lead underwriter track record is important.

The underwriters need to have a rough gauge where the pricing is "attractive" ie may not be reasonable (think dot com) hence the big gap in valuation range. During the roadshow they will access where the demand level is coming from, and usually it's based on comparative PE, anchors and of course market sentiments. And the pricing will also depend on whether management wants every ounch of flesh or leave some on the table, which is contingent to their own objectives, and sometimes personal objectives.

Usually of course low allocation means high demand and good performance, whereas high allocation makes the buyer fearful The irony of IPO.

My experience is that IPOs after a lull are usually better bets because sentiments are generally rough so valuations and expectations are lower. IPOs in the heat of euphoria are flips and soon the second tier losers will IPO too.

[KopiKat]

hmm .. how to tell "before hand" whether an IPO will be good to subscribe or not? I learned from very experienced sifu many years ago. Generally If there are 2 underwriters is a good IPO. If there is only 1 underwriter for the IPO then just sell your farm and buy that stock as much as you can.

Wah! First time I hear about this 'underwriter' theory; but it makes sense.

In summary:

1 underwriter: DIE DIE MUST BUY!
2 underwriters: CAN BUY!
3 or more underwriters: YOU BUY YOU DIE!

Very interesting. I may be tempted to collate this to recent IPO to see if it held up.

Need to also look at the relationship between the sole underwriter and the major shareholder of the IPO co. Perhaps the sole underwriter is looking at the bigger picture of a much bigger relationship with this major shareholder (who has a much bigger biz empire), say someone like Li Ka Shing. So, the IPO may be actually a high risk one and no one else wants to partake that kind of risk to co-underwrite...

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Less than 10mins for it to drop from $1 open (Hi so far $1.005) to IPO price of $0.97. Let's watch out for the Stabilising Mgr to be in action next... 70Mil+ ammo...

[Temperament]

Looking at the trade done UTD., some "professional stag' party or parties have made their money. i think not rosy for retailers who missed the stag price of $1. Within about 3 mins. price drop below to.995