Swept up in condo frenzy

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#1
What's this article in Life! trying to convey? The sense of inevitable rising real estate prices? Or the fact that people are so lulled into complacency that they would plonk their money down on anything that is labelled "property"? Mr. Ismail is not really helping either by fanning the flames of desire...

If you read the article, you'd realize so many are buying purely for investment and not for stay-in; and that many only expect prices to head in one direction - UP.

The Straits Times
www.straitstimes.com
Published on Apr 07, 2013
Swept up in condo frenzy

Buying a flat seems akin to striking the lottery, judging by the mood at a condo launch

By John Lui

The uniquely Singapore smell of real estate anxiety is in the air.

Five hundred or so people are crammed in here today in a big white tent to buy a piece of the Singapore dream. But as with any part of that dream, there is competition.

A ballot will decide if these people get one or more of the 868 units here at Bartley Ridge, along with its shared amenities, which include a "play agora", a "bioswale" and "meditation pods". I have no idea what they are but the hefty brochure, the size of a coffee- table book, assures me that they are very nice to have.

This church-like temporary structure, vast and air-conditioned, stands on Mount Vernon Road. Its whiteness and newness is in contrast to the rundown brown building across the street, home to the cats, dogs and other creatures cared for by the SPCA. Soon, the gently undulating grassy ground around the Bartley MRT station, close to the home to unwanted animals, the Mount Vernon Sanctuary funeral home and the Gurkha police unit will be thudding with piling works.

Inside the tent, there is an army of men and women in navy blazers and ties, doubling the size of the crowd. These are property agents, most of them at the elbow of their customers. But at this tense moment, they are also counsellors, speaking in low, soothing voices, trying to put their nervous clients at ease. Here and there are attractive young women handing out name cards, selling bank loans.

The buyers' fate hangs on the lottery. It is a system that has largely replaced the first-come-first-served system in private home sales, a style that in years past led to the sight of people - many of them teens or odd-jobbers hired as placeholders - queuing for days in the sun and rain before the start of sales.

On this day in late March, the buyers, a motley lot in T-shirts and shorts, mainly Singaporeans with a smattering of Indonesians and China nationals, retirees and working couples with children, whisper and check and recheck their papers as numbers are read out over the speakers.

A few buyers shout with joy as their ballot numbers are called and trot happily to the registration counter at the front. Some cheekier agents shout "Huat ah!", meaning "success" in Hokkien, but it is delivered as a joke in an attempt to lighten the mood.

The atmosphere has been made more tense by the recent cooling measures, which include the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD).

Those buying today get a 15 per cent discount that nullifies the duty, but they are swimming against the tide of fear that government price curbs, current or upcoming, will cause a price dip and make them look like the proverbial fools who rush in.

I follow the lucky people whose numbers have been called. They have to go to another building to join another line. At the end of it, they will find out if the unit or units they want are still available.

The most popular units are the most affordable ones. These are one-bedroom homes, starting at 441 sq ft, costing around $600,000. They are tiny, about the size of the two-bedroom flats that the HDB used to build in the 1970s and 1980s. The largest design, a four-bedroom unit, costs $1.97 million for 2,120 sq ft.

But most of the buyers I spoke to will not live in them, regardless of size.

They are not buying a home; they are buying an insurance policy in a country where property values go in only one direction - into space. One retired couple I spoke to have a HUDC home in the Braddell area. Another couple in their 40s have a HDB flat in Bishan. Neither has plans to move to Bartley Ridge.

In the words of the commander of the blue- blazered battalion here today, Mr Mohamed Ismail, they are hoping to tap into "other people's money".

The chief executive of Propnex Realty ("He owned his first property at the young age of 22 and amazingly made his first million at 28", according to his biography on the corporate website) uses the phrase, which he shortens to OPM, to refer to rent income.

It is one week after the ballot. Mr Ismail is here giving a talk about his OPM principle, in the same white tent, to a crowd of about 50 people. More than 300 units have been sold in the preceding days. But there are many more left and Propnex is among the agencies charged by developers Hong Leong Holdings, City Developments and TID to move them. The second phase of the seduction campaign is in full swing and Mr Ismail is leading the offensive.

"Whether you buy Bartley Ridge or not is none of my concern," he says in his opening shot.

He is here to educate, he declares. The OPM rule applies even if you are buying a unit to live in. The audience perks up at this. They are here because they saw the advertisement in this newspaper promising a talk by Mr Ismail, or have been invited here by his salespeople.

Mr Ismail has a reputation for being an energetic, thought-provoking speaker and he does not disappoint. For the next hour, he delivers a foundation course on the property market. There are jokes. After a show of hands proved that an overwhelming majority wanted to wait for a post-cooling market correction before buying, he says in mock exasperation: "Then what the hell am I going to talk about today?"

He chides anyone who thinks that the bargains left are only in Johor or Myanmar, when there are good deals to be had in Singapore - in, for example, Bartley Ridge. He drops a tip on how to beat other landlords hoping to lure the male expatriate shopping for a rental unit ("Go to Harvey Norman, Courts or Mustafa, look for a display unit LCD TV, 55 or 60 inch, install it. For his English Premier League.")

But most of all, he does sums. He seems to know that his enemy is the wait-and-see attitude caused by the cooling measures and the cure for it is numbers - rent yield versus mortgage payable, inflation and loan interest rates, land bank statistics, recent transacted home prices and the projected 6.9 million population put forward in the White Paper. He scribbles figures furiously on sheets of paper. The audience is riveted.

Mr Ismail's talk roams through history, economics, politics and, yes, male expatriate psychology. He gives the right amount of information at the right time. It all sounds air-tight. Did he win over the sceptics? It is hard to say, but many remain behind to chat in earnest with their agents.

As I walk to the MRT station, on my way home to my HDB flat, his numbers dance in my head. I still have no idea what a bioswale or play agora are, but now, some days after Mr Ismail's talk, I catch myself wanting them.

johnlui@sph.com.sg
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#2
Using OPM requires good risk management discipline. Timing is important as well. However, own-home ownership using OPM is a dangerous act given that bad timing and unforeseen circumstances will lead to possible family breakups and extreme hardships.

This article is good info but reader discipline is extremely important as novice readers can fall into the trap unknowingly.

Singapore's surrendering of monetary policy doesnt help in reining in the concept of using OPM as well. Without your own interest rates tool, there is hardly any easy tool to target asset inflation which is a bigger demon than daily life inflation.

(07-04-2013, 07:39 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: What's this article in Life! trying to convey? The sense of inevitable rising real estate prices? Or the fact that people are so lulled into complacency that they would plonk their money down on anything that is labelled "property"? Mr. Ismail is not really helping either by fanning the flames of desire...

If you read the article, you'd realize so many are buying purely for investment and not for stay-in; and that many only expect prices to head in one direction - UP.

The Straits Times
www.straitstimes.com
Published on Apr 07, 2013
Swept up in condo frenzy

Buying a flat seems akin to striking the lottery, judging by the mood at a condo launch

By John Lui

The uniquely Singapore smell of real estate anxiety is in the air.

Five hundred or so people are crammed in here today in a big white tent to buy a piece of the Singapore dream. But as with any part of that dream, there is competition.

A ballot will decide if these people get one or more of the 868 units here at Bartley Ridge, along with its shared amenities, which include a "play agora", a "bioswale" and "meditation pods". I have no idea what they are but the hefty brochure, the size of a coffee- table book, assures me that they are very nice to have.

This church-like temporary structure, vast and air-conditioned, stands on Mount Vernon Road. Its whiteness and newness is in contrast to the rundown brown building across the street, home to the cats, dogs and other creatures cared for by the SPCA. Soon, the gently undulating grassy ground around the Bartley MRT station, close to the home to unwanted animals, the Mount Vernon Sanctuary funeral home and the Gurkha police unit will be thudding with piling works.

Inside the tent, there is an army of men and women in navy blazers and ties, doubling the size of the crowd. These are property agents, most of them at the elbow of their customers. But at this tense moment, they are also counsellors, speaking in low, soothing voices, trying to put their nervous clients at ease. Here and there are attractive young women handing out name cards, selling bank loans.

The buyers' fate hangs on the lottery. It is a system that has largely replaced the first-come-first-served system in private home sales, a style that in years past led to the sight of people - many of them teens or odd-jobbers hired as placeholders - queuing for days in the sun and rain before the start of sales.

On this day in late March, the buyers, a motley lot in T-shirts and shorts, mainly Singaporeans with a smattering of Indonesians and China nationals, retirees and working couples with children, whisper and check and recheck their papers as numbers are read out over the speakers.

A few buyers shout with joy as their ballot numbers are called and trot happily to the registration counter at the front. Some cheekier agents shout "Huat ah!", meaning "success" in Hokkien, but it is delivered as a joke in an attempt to lighten the mood.

The atmosphere has been made more tense by the recent cooling measures, which include the additional buyer's stamp duty (ABSD).

Those buying today get a 15 per cent discount that nullifies the duty, but they are swimming against the tide of fear that government price curbs, current or upcoming, will cause a price dip and make them look like the proverbial fools who rush in.

I follow the lucky people whose numbers have been called. They have to go to another building to join another line. At the end of it, they will find out if the unit or units they want are still available.

The most popular units are the most affordable ones. These are one-bedroom homes, starting at 441 sq ft, costing around $600,000. They are tiny, about the size of the two-bedroom flats that the HDB used to build in the 1970s and 1980s. The largest design, a four-bedroom unit, costs $1.97 million for 2,120 sq ft.

But most of the buyers I spoke to will not live in them, regardless of size.

They are not buying a home; they are buying an insurance policy in a country where property values go in only one direction - into space. One retired couple I spoke to have a HUDC home in the Braddell area. Another couple in their 40s have a HDB flat in Bishan. Neither has plans to move to Bartley Ridge.

In the words of the commander of the blue- blazered battalion here today, Mr Mohamed Ismail, they are hoping to tap into "other people's money".

The chief executive of Propnex Realty ("He owned his first property at the young age of 22 and amazingly made his first million at 28", according to his biography on the corporate website) uses the phrase, which he shortens to OPM, to refer to rent income.

It is one week after the ballot. Mr Ismail is here giving a talk about his OPM principle, in the same white tent, to a crowd of about 50 people. More than 300 units have been sold in the preceding days. But there are many more left and Propnex is among the agencies charged by developers Hong Leong Holdings, City Developments and TID to move them. The second phase of the seduction campaign is in full swing and Mr Ismail is leading the offensive.

"Whether you buy Bartley Ridge or not is none of my concern," he says in his opening shot.

He is here to educate, he declares. The OPM rule applies even if you are buying a unit to live in. The audience perks up at this. They are here because they saw the advertisement in this newspaper promising a talk by Mr Ismail, or have been invited here by his salespeople.

Mr Ismail has a reputation for being an energetic, thought-provoking speaker and he does not disappoint. For the next hour, he delivers a foundation course on the property market. There are jokes. After a show of hands proved that an overwhelming majority wanted to wait for a post-cooling market correction before buying, he says in mock exasperation: "Then what the hell am I going to talk about today?"

He chides anyone who thinks that the bargains left are only in Johor or Myanmar, when there are good deals to be had in Singapore - in, for example, Bartley Ridge. He drops a tip on how to beat other landlords hoping to lure the male expatriate shopping for a rental unit ("Go to Harvey Norman, Courts or Mustafa, look for a display unit LCD TV, 55 or 60 inch, install it. For his English Premier League.")

But most of all, he does sums. He seems to know that his enemy is the wait-and-see attitude caused by the cooling measures and the cure for it is numbers - rent yield versus mortgage payable, inflation and loan interest rates, land bank statistics, recent transacted home prices and the projected 6.9 million population put forward in the White Paper. He scribbles figures furiously on sheets of paper. The audience is riveted.

Mr Ismail's talk roams through history, economics, politics and, yes, male expatriate psychology. He gives the right amount of information at the right time. It all sounds air-tight. Did he win over the sceptics? It is hard to say, but many remain behind to chat in earnest with their agents.

As I walk to the MRT station, on my way home to my HDB flat, his numbers dance in my head. I still have no idea what a bioswale or play agora are, but now, some days after Mr Ismail's talk, I catch myself wanting them.

johnlui@sph.com.sg
Reply
#3
MW, you highlighted exactly the sentence which I was freaked out when I first read this article.
The 2nd half of article also smack of subtle advertisement towards PropNex.

Doesn't ST provides an independent journalism towards its readers? Well.. we all know the truth anyway.

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#4
At the end of the day, many of these condos will end up as empty homes. Abit sad ah.
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
Reply
#5
Do you really think so? Alot of property developers are cash rich now and not holding on much landbank. Do you think our Govt willing to offer lower pricing for new bidding land? If No, how is the property price going lower?


(07-04-2013, 02:05 PM)LionFlyer Wrote: At the end of the day, many of these condos will end up as empty homes. Abit sad ah.
Reply
#6
(07-04-2013, 07:59 PM)2V. Wrote: At the end of the day, many of these condos will end up as empty homes. Abit sad ah.

I copy the below from another website. I get goose bumps whenever I read people rushing into property. This article kind of sums up in a rational manner;



By Gerald Tay (guest contributor)

Dear Readers,

I want to share some personal thoughts and investment decisions based on the 2013Q1 URA PPI flash estimate and what it means for the property market.

The 2013Q1 estimate of 213.1 represents a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase, which is a moderation from the 1.8% q-o-q pace we saw in 2012Q4, but suggests that the market prices are still rising, albeit slightly, despite seven rounds of government cooling measures.

Today, we’re at the record peak of the property cycle since 1965. It does not take a lot of common sense to tell us we need to tread extremely carefully, especially in the current uncertain economic climate.

Prices likely to continue to increase, but…

My personal predictions (I personally hate to invest on predictions), if you may, is that there might be further price increases in all segments of the property market. The residential market is still being supported by local first-time buyers (though we don’t know for how long yet), while the commercial and industrial sectors have experienced continued hot money inflows resulting from the severe cooling measures on the residential sector.

However, this does not mean investors should simply rush out to buy that new launch property today and hope to cash out in the next few years. The potential downside is much greater than the upside, and based on the price-rental index which indicates a 57% over-valuation (based on The Economist), buyers and investors today are already paying for future price increases for years down the road.

I have done my personal investment calculations for the residential market, comparing price versus rental. Even with the current low interest rates , most properties (resale and new) are already fetching negative yields, not to mention when these rates start to rise back to ‘normal’ levels in future.

“Phoney” money supporting the market

Today, the Asian property market (especially in Singapore, Hong Kong and China) is being supported by ‘phoney’ money. Money is printed endlessly in the trillions of dollars by irresponsible governments for political motives. Banks are either lowering their reserve rates or cutting interest rates and these have fuelled the inflow of more hot money. The money is finding its way into Asian markets like Singapore, in the hopes of so-called higher returns and inflating many asset bubbles.

When a financial crisis erupts (e.g. a Europe, USA, or China crash), this ‘phoney’ money would find its way back ‘home’ faster than a speeding bullet, resulting in severe price deflation and chaos.

A word of caution to investors

I personally urge you, if you are an investor who is still in the midst of growing your wealth for your retirement, to be very careful where you are putting your money today. If you are investing in overseas property, make sure you know that country inside out. When I mean inside out (NOT as a tourist), I mean you have been living in that country for years and are very familiar with the local real estate market.

Or, you have credible partners who are locals in that country who are willing to invest together with you. If you are simply investing in an overseas property and expecting good returns based on a piece of paper, some cocktail champagne, a nice sales talk or because you think you spent one full month to do some due diligence, I have to candidly say best of luck to your investment.

As for local properties, invest on cash flow and never capital appreciation.

For myself, I’ve stayed away from our local property market since 2011 and have expanded to the USA real estate market. I work with experienced local USA investors who are more familiar with the terrain and have invested their own money with me.

If you do not have that kind of connections or expertise, then my best wealth advice for you TODAY is to leave your money in the bank, despite the low interest rate on deposits. Be patient to take advantage of massive opportunities to grow your wealth within the next few years when prices start tumbling down again.

Please Remember: The Return of Money is more important than the Return on Money in any investment.

By guest contributor Gerald Tay, CEO of CREI Academy Group, who exposes widely-held property investment myths that have proven highly ineffective in creating wealth, and prevent a comfortable retirement for the ordinary investor. Posted courtesy of www.Propwise.sg, a Singapore property blog dedicated to helping you understand the real estate market and make better decisions. Click here to get your free Property Beginner’s and Buyer’s Guide.
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#7
(08-04-2013, 05:05 PM)Jacmar Wrote: Please Remember: The Return of Money is more important than the Return on Money in any investment.

This is essentially "Margin of Safety". But looks like it is being neglected in the current environment.
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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