PC decline is not temporary: Study

[corydorus]

if we define PC as Windows + x86(intel/amd), then yes, it is shrinking greatly.

But if you think tablets as a different form factor of PC, throwing in ARM/Android, the market for PC has never shrunk.

I think the point of comment is Notebook and Desktop.
The Consumer hybrid tablet+keyboard is on the way to replace them.
Is a matter of time Businesses will pick them up in a bigger way once they find the "right formula" to do it.

As for the current market of tablet by itself can potentially be over taken by larger screen smartphone. I just got an android 5.5" mobile and kind of amaze what it can do. The industry is moving extremely fast.

[kagemusha]

Consumer users are only one of the user groups for PC. Corporate users have different needs, which might not be easily replaced by tablets

This is exactly what will happen when cloud, virtualisation, replaces the current office PC setup.

What you cannot do with tablet or for that matter phone that only PC can do?

As long as the application can be on the cloud, tablets can deliver. It is simply a matter of time. Like I said, I don't see it immediately being replaced, but given a timeline of 10 - 15 years, PC in its current form, will likely be irrelevant. It is sad, as I love my PC but that's the way it is.

[desmondxyz]

Tablet and PC will co-exist.....Just like SSD and HDD will co-exist....

[Temperament]

Tablet and PC will co-exist.....Just like SSD and HDD will co-exist....

May not be in future if SSD's capacity & price wise can meet consumer's requirement. Just like VCD player is obsoleted now. DVD player may be next. Then....?

[CityFarmer]

Consumer users are only one of the user groups for PC. Corporate users have different needs, which might not be easily replaced by tablets

This is exactly what will happen when cloud, virtualisation, replaces the current office PC setup.

What you cannot do with tablet or for that matter phone that only PC can do?

As long as the application can be on the cloud, tablets can deliver. It is simply a matter of time. Like I said, I don't see it immediately being replaced, but given a timeline of 10 - 15 years, PC in its current form, will likely be irrelevant. It is sad, as I love my PC but that's the way it is.

I am referring to corporate's heavy duty machines, rather than those doing the exactly the same task as consumer group, e.g. are servers, R&D machines etc.

Even for common corporate user, the machine might need industrial grade, rather than consumer grade, due to business requirement.

[KopiKat]

In the original article, the writer probably got it wrong and should have used the term Desktops rather than PC. AFAIK, PC is a generic term used to encompass all the different types of PCs (Personal Computers) like Desktops, Laptops, Notebooks, NetBooks, Tablets,... IIRC, historically, the term was used to differentiate it with Workstations (using the processing power of Mainframes and subsequently Minis), which essentially look very similar to a Desktop PC.

[kagemusha]

I am along the line that PC means desktop rather than servers or blades and what have you.
Think about it this way.
In the office environment, what do people use most?

1. Email
2. Office suite
3. Databases
4. Other applications/in house apps

More and more of these can now be delivered via web/cloud/private cloud/thin client etc.
All that is needed is an app layer than deliver the results from the processing server/mainframe/super computer/blade, to the end client.
Once that is complete, you do not need a PC.

Processing power of machine should not even be in the equation. There will always be more transistors in the chip.
Just 5 years ago, my PC was probably top end, now, my handphone has more processing power than that.
Office environment will also be shaped by this. Just ask around, if the tablet can do 80% of the tasks you do in office, do you want to use a tablet instead of a PC?
With technology moving the way it is, PC Desktop in its current form, it's obsolescence is a foregone conclusion.
It is not will it, but when, that's all.
I give it a timeframe of 10-15 years.

[CityFarmer]

My last encountered with Workstation (w/ HP-UX) and minicomputer was more than 10 years ago. Most if not all boxes used nowadays are PC with Intel or AMD, both standard and high-end configurations, for as simple as license server, to as complex as dedicated IC design station.

Base on Dell 2013 annual report, Enterprise Solutions Group (ESG), the segment providing PC servers, has revenue of 3324 mil. The size is on-par with Desktops and thin client of 3550 mil.

[corydorus]

I saw small cube like mini-server for SOHO or home use. This maybe the next big thing to manage all our mobile, tablet, hybrids, TV, lighting, door etc

FYI. Dell consumer segment is almost gone.

[Boon]

Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments Declined 6.9 Percent in Fourth Quarter of 2013

In 2013, Global PC Shipments Suffered the Worst Decline in PC Market History, But Analysts Say Industry Has Bottomed Out


STAMFORD, Conn., January 9, 2014 — Worldwide PC shipments totaled 82.6 million units in the fourth quarter of 2013, a 6.9 percent decline from the fourth quarter of 2012, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. This is the seventh consecutive quarter of shipment decline.

"Although PC shipments continued to decline in the worldwide market in the fourth quarter, we increasingly believe markets, such as the U.S., have bottomed out as the adjustment to the installed base slows," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner. "Strong growth in tablets continued to negatively impact PC growth in emerging markets. In emerging markets, the first connected device for consumers is most likely a smartphone, and their first computing device is a tablet. As a result, the adoption of PCs in emerging markets will be slower as consumers skip PCs for tablets."........................................................

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2647517