PC decline is not temporary: Study

[corydorus]

Shrinking is on both sides and not exactly due to tablet. The more critical reason is Lenovo being favoured by the Chinese Gov.

[Big Toe]

A tablet can replicate a PC's function in some ways but is not a total replacement for the PC.
It is not quite the same as decades ago when the word processor/printer is replacing the typewriter.
The PC/printer combo does much more than what the typewriter can.
So the typewriter goes the way of the dinosaurs.

[Bibi]

My employer is in the defence industry. We have separate internet and office PC due to security requirements from our customer. As our internet PC is due for upgrade, the company is offering tablet as an alternative. Company strength is about 1,500. Imagine if 50% opt for tablet for internet, how can PC decline not due to tablet?

Imagine also if entire Mindef also offer their staff tablet for internet, how can PC decline not due to tablet? Also, what if the USA Department of Defence also do likewise?

[Big Toe]

As the tablet as its variations gain traction, it'll slowly replace the PC.
No question about that, just that it wont happen as fast as what happened to
the type-writer and the film camera.

Devices serve a function and if a new device takes on a different form and serves the function better,
it'll gain popularity and the older device will soon become redundant.
Much like how smart phones killed the not so smart ones.
One fine day, a smarter phone will replace the smart phone, maybe it wont be called a phone anymore.

[sgd]

phone lines are still around, even when there is wireless phones the adapter is still connected to a phone land line. Even your wireless mobile iphones need to connect to a transceiver that's connect to land lines located somewhere in your vicinity, lines have been in existence for over a hundred years. Same with PC's and monitors it will not die out so fast, if you look into digital life newspaper you can see advertisement for server prices around less than 10k these days if you compare to real enterprise class computer servers they built a decade ago used to be around 60k and above. A lot of these entry level servers are actually "PC's" which the manufacturers have enhanced. Budget cuts will make IT system managers look for alternatives so market will be around for a long long time.

I don't see any tablets around running as servers do you? Why? cause it's just not practical a tablet is just a small mobile device thats light weight and cute but doesn't have much in the way of add on features. Even a modern looking supermarket tablet POS is still a PC minus the keyboard, if you open the chasis I dare say you will probably find hardisk memory and network interface somewhere in there.

[Bibi]

I think nobody here is saying tablet will totally replace PCs. The question here is PC demand is declining due to tablet and that is true based on a real case cited by me in my previous msg. By the way, the tablet offered comes with a keyboard docking station.

[KopiKat]

I have often wondered why the Desktop PC never got replaced by the NB or even the lower cost Net Book. But now, it's going to get replaced by a Tablet???

Perhaps the tipping point is the Price vs Power? Especially in the business world, the Desktop is still the more practical choice? Perhaps there's a current paradigm shift happening now? Cloud computing, Web-based software and subscription based model is going to change the way on how we work / play?? In this case, a low cost Tablet (no need for high storage) may eventually conquer the world... But, still need 3/4G or WiFi to access all those important data and apps leh...

PS. For those who're getting old and long-sighted, a Tablet may not be a very productive computing device... If we have to add in a large external monitor + keyboard... prices may not be as attractive for organisations after all... Perhaps only more important staff will get to enjoy this.. for now..

[sgd]

if a tablet with it's own touchscreen keyboard were practical why would anybody still need a separate docking station with keyboard? Soreness in the neck from looking downwards all the time?

message getting thru ya

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on a separate vein

Someone I used to know work for Defense science once told me in his office environment all desk have workstations but the features that support mobile devices are disabled and not allowed due to security concerns that mobile devices are usually concealable.

More than 10 years ago I too went to mindef one of the lesser important underground sites for some work, besides the stringent physical checks there they don't allow any internet, all the pcs have their usb ports disabled and diskette drives removed so nobody can copy out any infos.

So now as then the security concern for theft or computer hacking will still the same and even more so conscious as before from wikileaks and Edward Snowden revelations. I guess sensitive organizations to prevent theft will not allow mobile equipment for security reasons those organizations like maybe frontdesk service industries will probably want more aesthetic modern savvy looking devices to keep up with appearances.

[specuvestor]

I have often wondered why the Desktop PC never got replaced by the NB or even the lower cost Net Book. But now, it's going to get replaced by a Tablet???

Perhaps the tipping point is the Price vs Power? Especially in the business world, the Desktop is still the more practical choice? Perhaps there's a current paradigm shift happening now? Cloud computing, Web-based software and subscription based model is going to change the way on how we work / play?? In this case, a low cost Tablet (no need for high storage) may eventually conquer the world... But, still need 3/4G or WiFi to access all those important data and apps leh...

PS. For those who're getting old and long-sighted, a Tablet may not be a very productive computing device... If we have to add in a large external monitor + keyboard... prices may not be as attractive for organisations after all... Perhaps only more important staff will get to enjoy this.. for now..

During the dot com days one of the most sensible thing I thought was the NB docking station. The logic is simple, once docked u have access to bigger keyboard, mouse and screen, and of course nowadays with wireless you dont need the LAN and printers. And you bring your data around without the trouble of synchronisation, which BTW is really tough to program though one touch for the user.

But still docking station makes a lot of sense that I 'm not sure why it wasn't more prevalent. Maybe it became obvious that it is a threat to the PC, but I seriously think NB and PC serves very different needs back then and was at absolutely no chance of being replaced.

Fast forward now with wireless and excessive CPU prowess. If docking station for tablet exist I think it is major threat to PC. It confounds me why MSFT hasn't done the integration much better, except for the fact that Balmer is a Bummer. I am pretty sure if Jobs is around that would be what he would do next, after degrading PC to a device, rather than remain the centre of computing. Maybe bigger interest of Wintel is at play here.

Tablet cannibalising the function of NB is clear. For sure NB will still be around for Road Warriors but for mere mortals like us, most likely a tablet will suffice. Like sgd commented, I've seen NB PERPETUALLY docked or locked to the desk (which of course defeats the purpose) due to sensitive info. Nonetheless in aggregate it has the potential to cannibalise the PC if the execution is right. That in fact was the vision of Jobs 30 years ago, ahead of the times. Unfortunately I don't see anyone leading that vision yet.

[Bibi]

The docking station is for charging the tablet. It comes with a keyboard in case the user wants to charge and surf the internet. Tablet with keybord docking station just for surfing net is cheaper to a nb or pc right?

Any company working in defence industry with Mindef as customer has to separate their office PC with internet PC. Now the internet PC is going to be replaced by tablet with KB dock station. So tell me, did tablet cause a decline in PC demand in this case? If someone still insist no, then i rest my case.

It is insane to work in an organisation which do not allow internet access for knowledge and info. Mine simply have a separate PC solely for internet. I believe Mindef and ST did likewise.

if a tablet with it's own touchscreen keyboard were practical why would anybody still need a separate docking station with keyboard? Soreness in the neck from looking downwards all the time?

message getting thru ya

---

on a separate vein

Someone I used to know work for Defense science once told me in his office environment all desk have workstations but the features that support mobile devices are disabled and not allowed due to security concerns that mobile devices are usually concealable.

More than 10 years ago I too went to mindef one of the lesser important underground sites for some work, besides the stringent physical checks there they don't allow any internet, all the pcs have their usb ports disabled and diskette drives removed so nobody can copy out any infos.

So now as then the security concern for theft or computer hacking will still the same and even more so conscious as before from wikileaks and Edward Snowden revelations. I guess sensitive organizations to prevent theft will not allow mobile equipment for security reasons those organizations like maybe frontdesk service industries will probably want more aesthetic modern savvy looking devices to keep up with appearances.