Tai Cheung Holdings (0088)

[port]

i'm surprised that TCH is holding up well amid the turbulence. Probably the market is waiting for the FY2013 results out next tues, 18june.

hope to see increase in final dividend from last yr 19cts :-)

[yawnyawn]

FY2013 results out..

EPS fell by 23% y-o-y. Final dividend remains at 19c. Total dividend at 30c for FY2013. NAV at $14.20 if hotel properties stated at CMV which means that the stock is trading at 55% discount to NAV. Yield at at 4.7%

I understand that company is converting Metropole Square, from industrial to office and shop uses. How much will Tai Cheung expect to profit out of it?

Repulse bay site
Cheung expects the developer to build 10 houses of about 4,000 sq ft each priced at HK$60,000 to HK$80,000 per sq ft. Knight Frank executive director Alnwick Chan Chi-hing believes the houses could be marketed at between HK$60,000 and HK$70,000 per sq ft.

From my own estimates
Land cost = 1668m
Est. construction cost for luxury quality house x 1.5 of lower-end pricing= $60000 per sqm x 4340 sqm = 261m
Totat development cost = 1930m

Est. Sales = HKD$60000 x 46715sqf = 2800m

45% margin sounds too good to be true?

Port, may i ask how did you arrive at development cost of HKD 2.1b? Thanks

[port]

Hi yawnyawn,

the 2.1b development cost was extracted from an online source which i hv lost track of it.

land cost made up 44% of total cost while development cost made up 56% of total. the % seem reasonable.

my concern is whether TCL overpaid for the repulse bay land. Another hk-listed co, liu chong hing has a project at fairview court at repulse bay too.
http://www.lchi.com.hk/fairview.php

---

i like to imagine i hv enough $$$ to make a takeover of TCL at mkt cap of 3.89b.

what am i getting for this price?
1. cash of 2.17b
2. inventory of 3.44b
3. debt of 0.11b
4. 35% stake in sheraton HK, 5-star hotel at kowloon

unsure if metropole square + 5 units at THE PEAK+ unknown qty of shops/carparks etc classified under inventory or PPE.

just taking items 1-3 into account only, one is paying a $ for cash/asset worth at least $1.41.

another fact is that each staff made a net profit of 2.64m on average while admin. cost per staff is just 0.2m based on staff strength of 214( previously 220)

[yawnyawn]

Hong Kong Sells Land Below Estimates on Rising Supply


The developer of the Repulse Bay site will probably build low-rise apartments on the site, according to AG Wilkinson’s Lam. Prices for the units may go for about HK$44,000 a square foot in two to three years, he said. New units in the area currently sell for about HK$35,000 to HK$40,000, he said.

Est. Sales = HKD$44000 x 46715sqf = 2055m

Margin is much lower now at 6.5%. However I do not think Tai Cheung will bid for the land if they believe they can only sell at HKD 44000 psf. I see sky high prices over here. 63000 psf! These are really crazy prices to pay for.

Any valuebuddies familiar with the HK property market care to share some light into property prices in Repulse Bay?

[port]

http://w4.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Ho...e/wacc.htm

wacc estimated at 8%
5yr ave roce at 10.2%
5yr cagr EPS growth at 21%
5yr cagr equity growth at 7%

rental of residential at repulse bay: $40 psf per mth ie 480 psf per yr.
based on 1-2% rental yield, psf valued at 48000 to 24000.
http://www.hshgroup.com/en/~/media/Files..._Full.ashx

[port]

tai cheung港島舂坎角環角道33號，今日在一手住宅物業資訊網上載了項目樓書及價單，現尚餘1個K號屋待售，售價8,500萬元，折合呎價35,654元，而該單位將於11月18日起發售。

[port]

House on The Peak sold at second-highest price in HK

22 November


HONG KONG — Hutchison Whampoa, the conglomerate controlled by Mr Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man, has sold a house in Hong Kong’s Victoria Peak for HK$740 million (S$119 million).

The 6,863 sq-ft house at the seven-home, 28 Barker Road project was sold to an unidentified buyer, according to the developer’s website. The price is the second-highest paid in the city after a house on Pollock’s Path in The Peak was sold for HK$800 million in 2011, according to real estate broker Colliers International.

Hong Kong’s government has since 2010 imposed various extra property transaction taxes and tightened mortgage lending to curb home prices that are now the world’s highest.

Prices of Hong Kong’s luxury residential properties will drop about 3 per cent in the fourth quarter, extending a decline since the start of the year, as transactions decline to the lowest in almost two decades, according to real estate broker Cushman & Wakefield.

“In this market, whoever’s willing to pay such a high price for a property is buying it for their own use,” said Mr Simon Lo, Hong Kong-based Executive Director, Research and Advisory, at Colliers.

“With all these extra taxes, there’s very little chance you can make money by investing in them,” he said.

Hong Kong in February doubled stamp duty on all property deals over HK$2 million to as high as 8.5 per cent. In October last year, it slapped a 15 per cent extra tax on home purchases by all non-Hong Kong residents and corporate buyers.

The Peak is one of Hong Kong’s most expensive residential areas where global banks and companies such as HSBC Holdings house their top executives. Swire Properties last year sold a unit in a Frank Gehry-designed building for HK$455 million, a record for Hong Kong apartments.

Hutchison Whampoa has put another house in the 28 Barker Road project up for sale, according to the website. BLOOMBERG

[port]

大昌(00088)公布截至2013年9月底止半年業績，期內盈利增1.2倍至8.85億元，每股盈利143.3仙，派中期息11仙。

The transfer of a property for sale to an investment property is effected on 30th September 2013,
resulting in a fair value gain before tax of HK$964.3 million.The profit increase is mainly due to
reclassification of Metropole Square in Shatin from properties for sale to investment
properties.

RNAV went up from HK$14.20 to HK$15.46. px trading at 60% discount to RNAV.

[port]

details of plunkett site transaction in 2004
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listcone...331030.pdf

[ianphoon]

hi
tan chong tcil is not the same as tch
fyi