Cooling measures rein in home prices

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#1
The article is somewhat misleading - home prices have not been "reined in", it is simply the increase which is slowing, but it's still increasing!

The Straits Times
www.straitstimes.com
Published on Apr 02, 2013
Cooling measures rein in home prices

Pace of growth slows in Q1, but private home prices still reach record high

By Esther Teo And Daryl Chin Property Correspondents

THE pace of growth of private and public home prices eased in the first quarter as January's cooling measures lowered the temperature of the red-hot market.

Even so, private home prices still reached a new overall record high in the first three months of the year, despite the gentler 0.5 per cent increase in prices.

The latest rise, reflected in Urban Redevelopment Authority flash estimates out yesterday, was well down from a 1.8 per cent jump in the final quarter of last year as prices across all non-landed segments grew more slowly.

Prices of apartments in the city centre inched up just 0.4 per cent from 0.7 per cent while prices of city fringe units were unchanged after having risen 0.9 per cent the quarter before.

Prices of non-landed homes in suburban areas edged up 1.7 per cent, well down from 3.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Resale Housing Board flats also posted a fairly muted price growth, up just 1.2 per cent in the January to March period.

This is down from 2.5 per cent in the previous quarter and is the lowest quarter-on-quarter gain since the first quarter of last year.

Experts said the measures are starting to filter through the market, reining in prices even though demand drivers remain strong.

But recent policy changes such as singles being eligible for Housing Board Build-To-Order flats, as well as the bumper supply of new flats, have also dampened the demand for HDB resale flats, said PropNex Realty chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

The cap on the mortgage servicing ratio for HDB flat buyers on loans granted by banks, at 30 per cent of a borrower's gross monthly pay, has also dented the purchasing power of buyers. He expects resale prices to rise by between 4 per cent and 5 per cent this year.

According to Singapore Real Estate Exchange, the number of HDB resale transactions has also fallen from 4,635 in the final quarter of last year, to 3,028 in the first three months of this year.

The median cash over valuation - a cash component paid above a flat's valuation to sweeten the deal - fell from $34,000 to $33,000 in the same time period.

Median resale prices, however, have gone up slightly to $457,000 from $455,000.

Since the cooling measures were unveiled, private developers have been dangling carrots and incentives at launches to alleviate their sting. This helped spur robust sales at suburban launches like D'Nest in Pasir Ris and Urban Vista in Tanah Merah that helped sustain the moderate price rise in the segment, experts said.

With the market more attuned to the latest curbs, the coming months will be the real litmus test of market demand, as more new projects - particularly from the ramped up government land sales programme - are launched, said Ms Chia Siew Chuin, Colliers International's director of research and advisory services.

But the growing resistance to further price increases, coupled with the sizeable home supply that will come on stream in the next few years, will keep prices in check, she added. "The threat of rising interest rates should also contain the risk appetite of home buyers; hence, limiting their propensity to commit to prices extensively above the last done."

Experts noted the Government's resolve to tame the market, but felt it is likely to monitor the market for one or two more quarters before deciding on the need for more measures.

esthert@sph.com.sg

darylc@sph.com.sg
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#2
Hi MW,

The prop curbs around the beneficiaries of freely printed money are getting to be a red hot issues. Refer to the link to China properties and you will see that as long as there is some small victory, policy makers will make a big concert out of it since they have to be seen to be on top of concerns of the mess men on the streets.

GG

(02-04-2013, 06:53 AM)Musicwhiz Wrote: The article is somewhat misleading - home prices have not been "reined in", it is simply the increase which is slowing, but it's still increasing!

The Straits Times
www.straitstimes.com
Published on Apr 02, 2013
Cooling measures rein in home prices

Pace of growth slows in Q1, but private home prices still reach record high

By Esther Teo And Daryl Chin Property Correspondents

THE pace of growth of private and public home prices eased in the first quarter as January's cooling measures lowered the temperature of the red-hot market.

Even so, private home prices still reached a new overall record high in the first three months of the year, despite the gentler 0.5 per cent increase in prices.

The latest rise, reflected in Urban Redevelopment Authority flash estimates out yesterday, was well down from a 1.8 per cent jump in the final quarter of last year as prices across all non-landed segments grew more slowly.

Prices of apartments in the city centre inched up just 0.4 per cent from 0.7 per cent while prices of city fringe units were unchanged after having risen 0.9 per cent the quarter before.

Prices of non-landed homes in suburban areas edged up 1.7 per cent, well down from 3.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

Resale Housing Board flats also posted a fairly muted price growth, up just 1.2 per cent in the January to March period.

This is down from 2.5 per cent in the previous quarter and is the lowest quarter-on-quarter gain since the first quarter of last year.

Experts said the measures are starting to filter through the market, reining in prices even though demand drivers remain strong.

But recent policy changes such as singles being eligible for Housing Board Build-To-Order flats, as well as the bumper supply of new flats, have also dampened the demand for HDB resale flats, said PropNex Realty chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

The cap on the mortgage servicing ratio for HDB flat buyers on loans granted by banks, at 30 per cent of a borrower's gross monthly pay, has also dented the purchasing power of buyers. He expects resale prices to rise by between 4 per cent and 5 per cent this year.

According to Singapore Real Estate Exchange, the number of HDB resale transactions has also fallen from 4,635 in the final quarter of last year, to 3,028 in the first three months of this year.

The median cash over valuation - a cash component paid above a flat's valuation to sweeten the deal - fell from $34,000 to $33,000 in the same time period.

Median resale prices, however, have gone up slightly to $457,000 from $455,000.

Since the cooling measures were unveiled, private developers have been dangling carrots and incentives at launches to alleviate their sting. This helped spur robust sales at suburban launches like D'Nest in Pasir Ris and Urban Vista in Tanah Merah that helped sustain the moderate price rise in the segment, experts said.

With the market more attuned to the latest curbs, the coming months will be the real litmus test of market demand, as more new projects - particularly from the ramped up government land sales programme - are launched, said Ms Chia Siew Chuin, Colliers International's director of research and advisory services.

But the growing resistance to further price increases, coupled with the sizeable home supply that will come on stream in the next few years, will keep prices in check, she added. "The threat of rising interest rates should also contain the risk appetite of home buyers; hence, limiting their propensity to commit to prices extensively above the last done."

Experts noted the Government's resolve to tame the market, but felt it is likely to monitor the market for one or two more quarters before deciding on the need for more measures.

esthert@sph.com.sg

darylc@sph.com.sg
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#3
Most measures are artificial and will not last enough. Basically cosmetics. The practical way I feel to truly tame the market is to ensure the bottom folks can catch up or seriously ramp up the housing supply. Since there is always a size-able folks be left behind no matter what, increasing supply is the best. IMO Singapore is moving in the right direction.

Just my Diary
corylogics.blogspot.com/


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#4
CM=Wayang
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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#5
Govt can't aggressively reined in property price because it is link closely to GDP numbers and related sector likes developers, construction and banking etc. WIth current low export numbers, contraction in the services & tourism sectors where else can we find growth? The current debt-to-mortgage ratio is at all time high, if property price fall too fast and interest edge up. A lot of the house owners will go into negative equity. That the balancing act that govt is try to manage now
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#6
(02-04-2013, 10:09 AM)xis Wrote: A lot of the house owners will go into negative equity.

This is what happened during AFC in 1997-1998. Can anyone recall exactly what measures were taken then? Have those who fell into -ve equity been able to clear their loans eventually, or did they have their properties force-sold? Huh
My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#7
My friend bought Villa Marina 2bdrm unit from Far East Gp during the launch at $1.2m in 1996. When the AFC come, price drop another friend bought it at fire sale price of est $600k only. The bank go after my first friend due to negative equity, he was lucky to be able to service the loan. 10yrs later I check with him; he still paying mortgage and price barely catch up to around $1m in 2006. I guess he should be positive now after so many years excluding all the interest paid. In the earlier years his rental can't even cover monthly mortgage payment. Good luck to all the property owners!
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#8
Quote:The current debt-to-mortgage ratio is at all time high

What kind of ratio is that?
Source??
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#9
Sorry should be debt to income ratio for a mortgage
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#10
(02-04-2013, 10:46 AM)xis Wrote: Sorry should be debt to income ratio for a mortgage

http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/br...ce4q12.xls

The total HDB mortgage loan amount is dropping every quarter from 49billion in Q108 to 39billion in Q412. Surprised?
The total private mortgage loan amount is rising but so is the total amount of financial assets.
CPF alone is enough to clear all mortgage debt
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