Dow Jones - MARKET COMMENT: HSI May Hit 50,000 By 2015 In Bull Scenario - MS

[greengiraffe]

Sounded quite familiar...

Subject: Dow Jones - MARKET COMMENT: HSI May Hit 50,000 By 2015 In Bull Scenario - MS
3-19-13 9:43 PM EDT
0128 GMT [Dow Jones] Morgan Stanley introduces a new long-term bull scenario in which the HSI achieves the 50,000 level before the end of calendar year 2015, citing four reasons: Easy money and accelerating global growth; Historical precedent of 6- to 8-year peak-to-peak cycle (1973, 1981, 1987, 1994, 2000, and 2007), each after growth of at least 121% in a 3-year period; valuation backtests support its view, with the HSI's trailing P/E currently at 11.0X, or 83rd percentile cheap to history, and trailing P/B at 1.52X, or 75th percentile cheap; and QDII initiatives from China's government and the Hong Kong government's property market controls are also factors supportive of its call. The house adds, with the help of MS' bottom-up analysts, it explores bull case scenarios for 2015 EPS and P/E for the HSI on a stock-by-stock basis; overall, this suggests 38,800 as a bottom-up bull case 2015 target. The HSI slipped 0.2% to 22,041.86 Tuesday. (robert.li@dowjones.com)

[hongonn]

I think Morgan Stanley is just far far too pessimistic about HSI.

I just give a few examples during 1999, people are making far more reasonable predictions about dow jones and all rush to write a book about it.

I just brush off anything that said HSI going to be less than 150,000.

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[arthur]

I take it that you guys are doing the reverse psychology trick to warn everyone about being too euphoric?

[greengiraffe]

Hi Arthur,

My boss once told me - as an analyst, it does matter if you are right or wrong. Its the view that matters and how you justify it.

I made my call of STI at 6000 by 2016/17 and stand by it.

MS made a call on HSI and they live with it.

The market is a beautiful place where everyone is entitled to see the glass as half full and half empty.

Where the market end up and how each and everyone performs is to each his own.

GG

I take it that you guys are doing the reverse psychology trick to warn everyone about being too euphoric?

[arthur]

Hi Arthur,

My boss once told me - as an analyst, it does matter if you are right or wrong. Its the view that matters and how you justify it.

I made my call of STI at 6000 by 2016/17 and stand by it.

MS made a call on HSI and they live with it.

The market is a beautiful place where everyone is entitled to see the glass as half full and half empty.

Where the market end up and how each and everyone performs is to each his own.

GG

I respect your stance on your call.

But for MS? Well.. those bunch of guys flip-flop often like their counterparts in GS. LOL

Cheers