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(31-01-2013, 01:53 PM)sgd Wrote: (31-01-2013, 01:42 PM)cif5000 Wrote: The population is a result of the environment. You put a few guppies into a home aquarium and with sufficient food they reproduce. If the water quality becomes bad they die. Overcrowding is an issue. If you add more guppies into the tank, the faster they will die. When survival becomes the priority, reproduction disappears. Clean the water, move them into a bigger tank, etc...life goes back to normal.
The solution to the population problem: Work the environment.
And then you ask yourself. Why do you want so many guppies? Isn't a nice aquarium what you really wanted? Ah...you can go into the business of selling guppies (read: GDP - Guppies, Dummies and Politicians).
very good and simplified my complements 
We should give nature a chance as it has always meant to be. Instead the ruling party has added more and more stress for everyone and high cost of living and at the end of day still ask how come still no baby leh - siao bo? 
I think the overall response towards this white paper is rather obvious.
Even taking account towards a possible aging population and declining economy, most of us still prefer a lower population in Singapore.
Gov can't blame the citizens from voting them out in the next election.
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maybe you are too focused on the guppies and forget about the arrowanas(companies) in the fish tank... maybe the pet lover is more concern about feeding his prized arrowanas than cheapo guppies(drain fish)......
(31-01-2013, 01:42 PM)cif5000 Wrote: The population is a result of the environment. You put a few guppies into a home aquarium and with sufficient food they reproduce. If the water quality becomes bad they die. Overcrowding is an issue. If you add more guppies into the tank, the faster they will die. When survival becomes the priority, reproduction disappears. Clean the water, move them into a bigger tank, etc...life goes back to normal.
The solution to the population problem: Work the environment.
And then you ask yourself. Why do you want so many guppies? Isn't a nice aquarium what you really wanted? Ah...you can go into the business of selling guppies (read: GDP - Guppies, Dummies and Politicians).
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31-01-2013, 07:23 PM
(This post was last modified: 31-01-2013, 07:26 PM by wsreader.)
As I read the population white paper, I felt something was not right but I could not pin point it.
By the time i reach the conclusion chapter, I realise the significance of the following quote
(29-01-2013, 06:06 PM)d.o.g. Wrote: Increasing the birthrate and growing the population are 2 different things. They are related but not the same.
The white paper is about increasing the size of our population. Even if our TFR miraculously increase to 2.1 next year, the govt will still keep the immigration floodgate open because the unspoken aim is least 6.5m in 2030.
The magic number 6.5m was first mentioned by MBT in Feb 2007 at a URA seminar. LKY also mentioned 6.5m in early 2008. The immigration floodgate was open on the quiet during the last decade, probably to meet the target of 6.5m, until the strains on our infrastructure became apparent. Then we have this white paper which projects a population of 6.5m to 6.9m in 2030.
What has changed?
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^^ they are the same because the trajectory is purely mathematical, that they worked backwards
What is important is to separate GDP growth by numbers, vs aging replacement growth. If the govt is willing to accept zero or even negative GDP growth as the population ages, the trajectory becomes very different
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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31-01-2013, 08:09 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2013, 09:26 PM by arthur.)
The aim of the White Paper is to meet the GDP target of 2% to 3%.
The falling TFR was decided by the government to be the cause of NOT hitting the target thus, importing more is the solution.
The growing of the population to meet the GDP target is THE ANSWER, and not tackling the issue of decreasing birthrate.
Thus lies the difference. Its as if the Government is totally seeing another issue, ie. "what can we do to hit the GDP target?
rather than "what can we do to increase birthrate?"
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No such thing as no ageing problem, which country don't face this ? Do they mean we will not have this problem when we reach 6.9m in 2030 ?
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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(31-01-2013, 08:09 PM)arthur Wrote: The aim of the White Paper is to meet the GDP target of 3% to 5%.
The falling TFR was decided by the government to be the cause of NOT hitting the target thus, importing more is the solution.
The growing of the population to meet the GDP target is THE ANSWER, and not tackling the issue of decreasing birthrate.
Thus lies the difference. Its as if the Government is totally seeing another issue, ie. "what can we do to hit the GDP target?
rather than "what can we do to increase birthrate?"
GDP Growth remains as 1/4 of their KPI for Bonus....??? Used to be 100%. Perhaps that's the reason??? 
An article from one year back. IIRC, they accepted the recommendation?
http://news.xin.msn.com/en/singapore/art...id=5724258
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Source: Singapore Notes: White Washed Paper
White Washed Paper
The Population White Paper is really one piece of shoddy work. There's no bibliography, annotations or scholarly references cited to support it's preposterous arguments or constructs. Even if the authors were to package it with iPods, Mont Blanc pens or tailored shirts, no professor will give it a decent grade. It's fit for one purpose only. You are in the smallest room of the house, the paper is in front of you, then it's behind you. Don't forget to flush.
Seriously, anyone one can spot the white lies from Batam, Bintang or Johore Baru. Some snippets:
[Image: Declining+support.jpg]
The young couple who bought the $2m Executive Condominium had to rely on daddy's help to finance the purchase. A fresh graduate starting work will have to count on his parents' assistance to afford that $100K Certificate of Entilement. The old folks probably had to downgrade their HDB flat to send his child overseas because the place in the local university was taken up by an alien. Welcome to the new normal. Thanks to the high cost of living, the young can no longer support the old, the old is now forced to draw down on his life savings to keep the family unit intact.
[Image: Increased+%24400+milliont.jpg]
$400 million extra to encourage marriage and having children, $1.1 billion extra for more buses to accommodate the foreign hoards. Enuff said.
[Image: foreginers+integrate.jpg]
The government imposes ethnic quotas for Chinese, Malays and Indians in its public housing estates, to ensure a good interracial mix in residential areas. There's no such restriction for masses of North Indians taking over the condominiums in the East Coast. "I'm told in Australia, Sydney, there's one area which is a Vietnamese village... All the Vietnamese mafias are in that area, you go in at your own risk. We have not allowed that to develop here." (LKY, Hard truths, page 272). The old coot obviously haven't ventured much out of Oxley Rise recently.
[Image: adapt.jpg]
If immigrants share ethnic backgrounds, the curry wars would not have erupted. LKY heard the confessions of one middle aged new citizen from China on 95.8 FM: "How can I assimilate? I try. But I eat different food, different cooking, my life habits are different. My children go to local schools, they'll become Singaporean naturally. But overnight, how can I change?" At least that guy was truthfully honest, unlike the ping pong player who scooted off with the medals and prize money, son in tow, before he reaches enlistment age.
[Image: complement.jpg]
Having our toddlers speak Tagalog because of close proximity to the foreign domestic is not complementary to our skill set. We don't need another Alvin Tan ASEAN scholar to encourage bedroom innovations. The CNB, SCDF and NUS have enough problems in that area. Look at what happened to Michael Palmer. Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin has been in the country for quite some time now, are we any closer to a new social network start-up?
[Image: Young+leavt.jpg]
This is the only honest bit of disclosure in the whole white wash. Except that the young are leaving not just for exciting and growing cities. They are leaving for countries where there's habitable living space, ample room for free expression, and money grabbing politicians can actually be voted out of office.
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(31-01-2013, 08:09 PM)arthur Wrote: The aim of the White Paper is to meet the GDP target of 3% to 5%.
The falling TFR was decided by the government to be the cause of NOT hitting the target thus, importing more is the solution.
The growing of the population to meet the GDP target is THE ANSWER, and not tackling the issue of decreasing birthrate.
Thus lies the difference. Its as if the Government is totally seeing another issue, ie. "what can we do to hit the GDP target?
rather than "what can we do to increase birthrate?"
The paper is not written as an analysis paper but a justification paper. A problem statement was defined which framed the boundaries of discussion and the rest of it was like a equation being worked backwards.
This is no 'choice' or 'options' and there is no depth in explaining why that GDP number was chosen and what is the population number in the different situation.
You can count on the greed of man for the next recession to happen.
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