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19-01-2013, 12:59 PM
(This post was last modified: 19-01-2013, 01:04 PM by specuvestor.)
(19-01-2013, 09:41 AM)Bibi Wrote: I remember Alan Greenspan mention before that a bubble cannot be avoided once formed. It can only be slowed down. One of his most controversial statement is that we cannot know when a bubble is being formed. I think that is ridiculous. Most of us here would know there is a property bubble now.
(19-01-2013, 09:56 AM)Share Investor Wrote: (19-01-2013, 09:49 AM)pianist Wrote: agreed. this is a bubble of no return.
and the news said he has acted pre-emptively in the face of very low interest rates. I think the measures have come too late.
plus stronger measures should be imposed to protect interest of citizens. for example disallow PR to sublet public housing HDB room for rental gain. they can do it in the private market for all they want.
Government can do all they want. But everything comes with a price including affecting Singapore's reputation as a free and open economy driven by market forces.
SGD is not even floated. I don't think Singapore thrives on market forces.
Again this thread shows so much skeptism on the govt ability to burst a bubble. IMHO that is untrue in the face of a DETERMINED policy maker. People are taunting or betting against the "house". The question is the "tipping point". When property markets start declining the psyche of the herd will suddenly change. We've seen it many times. Nobody knows when the tipping point will come, is it 7th or 17th measure, just like 1996 2nd board, dot com, US and China property speculation, etc. That's what we mean by playing with fire. You don't get burn immediately but eventually all bubbles burst, engineered or not.
What is tricky for Singapore govt is the same issue for China: hard or soft landing. A landing is not the question.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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Bubble or not, immigrants target quota has been said to revised from 6.5 millions to 7.0 millions.
WB:-
1) Rule # 1, do not lose money.
2) Rule # 2, refer to # 1.
3) Not until you can manage your emotions, you can manage your money.
Truism of Investments.
A) Buying a security is buying RISK not Return
B) You can control RISK (to a certain level, hopefully only.) But definitely not the outcome of the Return.
NB:-
My signature is meant for psychoing myself. No offence to anyone. i am trying not to lose money unnecessary anymore.
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200,000 more homes for more foreigners to be imported into this tiny island. Once a leopard always a leopard. The wayang goes on.
“risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”
I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars: I look around for 1-foot bars that I can step over.
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(19-01-2013, 01:16 PM)corporatefatcat Wrote: Malinvestment
http://wiki.mises.org/wiki/Malinvestment
Food for thought: is Austrian absolute free market capitalism the problem in the past 10 years or govt intervention? IMHO absolute free market capitalism is as utopian as communism. There is certain logic and self interest enlightenment in compassionate capitalism.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
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> Bubble or not, immigrants target quota has been said to revised from 6.5 millions to 7.0 millions.
Parachuting in of mercenery FTs, looks similar to the ethnic cleansing of Kosovo. By printing more pink ICs, they probably earn more grateful votes.
Maybe the original citizens like me, got to look elsewhere... message is "you can move anywhere if you dont like".
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(19-01-2013, 12:59 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Again this thread shows so much skeptism on the govt ability to burst a bubble. IMHO that is untrue in the face of a DETERMINED policy maker. People are taunting or betting against the "house". The question is the "tipping point". When property markets start declining the psyche of the herd will suddenly change. We've seen it many times. Nobody knows when the tipping point will come, is it 7th or 17th measure, just like 1996 2nd board, dot com, US and China property speculation, etc. That's what we mean by playing with fire. You don't get burn immediately but eventually all bubbles burst, engineered or not.
What is tricky for Singapore govt is the same issue for China: hard or soft landing. A landing is not the question.
Been the biggest land owner of SG, most of us know that the Gov IS the house. I think many do see the determination of the Gov based on the terms of the latest cooling measures, but the legs of the bull - low interest rates and an almost-full employed population - are still lulling the bulls and sceptics (of whichever side) to remain on their side of their respective emotions.
The long term growth rate of an economy is ~5-10%. I am reckoning this should be the growth rate of our median incomes as well. The seeds of the crash, has been planted when property prices consistently exceeded median incomes' growth. So, yes, the question is 'when and how', and not 'will or not'.
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government is controlling home prices.
In the news today there's an article that says population is going to reach 7 million in 2030 means any drastic fall in property prices will create short term opportunities you will see a stampede of FT coming in to buy to support the prices.
Maybe one day prices will be so freaking high that your children and most singaporeans will not be able to afford and may even have to rent from FT and PR.
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(19-01-2013, 10:56 PM)sgd Wrote: government is controlling home prices.
In the news today there's an article that says population is going to reach 7 million in 2030 means any drastic fall in property prices will create short term opportunities you will see a stampede of FT coming in to buy to support the prices.
Maybe one day prices will be so freaking high that your children and most singaporeans will not be able to afford and may even have to rent from FT and PR.
No worry, some policy tweaks to HDB will ensure this will not happen. Provided the govt of the day is a pro-Sporean one.
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Personally we need to plan tactically if you are in the 30s and 40s. When more of your friends and relatives are leaving for greener pasture in other countries, just make sure you have an option to join them.
(19-01-2013, 11:26 PM)kichialo Wrote: (19-01-2013, 10:56 PM)sgd Wrote: government is controlling home prices.
In the news today there's an article that says population is going to reach 7 million in 2030 means any drastic fall in property prices will create short term opportunities you will see a stampede of FT coming in to buy to support the prices.
Maybe one day prices will be so freaking high that your children and most singaporeans will not be able to afford and may even have to rent from FT and PR.
No worry, some policy tweaks to HDB will ensure this will not happen. Provided the govt of the day is a pro-Sporean one.
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