Singapore Post

[LLI]

never realize Singapore is a big enough market for Alibaba


www.valueinvestasia.com

[CityFarmer]

never realize Singapore is a big enough market for Alibaba


www.valueinvestasia.com

Alibaba isn't focus on Singapore market only, but SingPost regional/international logistics capabilities, infrastructure, and delivery networks. POPStation is highlighted in the news release, means the POPStation is a working and feasible solution for the rest of the world, not only Singapore.

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SGX_Ann....eID=299059

(not vested)

[LLI]

They planning to use Singpost to expand oversea? to make Singpost to be like DHL?


www.valueinvestasia.com

[GPD]

They planning to use Singpost to expand oversea? to make Singpost to be like DHL?


www.valueinvestasia.com

Maybe also to capitalised on the "Singapore" brand.

[BlueKelah]

softbank fellow controls much of alibaba, he likes to do aquisitions. Probably targeting the profitable business of Singpost which is not at rich valuation yet.

[CityFarmer]

They planning to use Singpost to expand oversea? to make Singpost to be like DHL?


www.valueinvestasia.com

My guess is you are new to SingPost. On top of SingPost's mail segment, it has logistic segment with business in the region and internationally.

Just to name few of SingPost's subsidiaries
- Quantium solution covers Australia, HK, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia etc.
- Poste Inc in USA
- Shenzhen 4PX in China

What is lacking for SingPost is e-commerce to drive the logistic segment, where Alibaba fits well.

(not vested)

[flinger]

Hi Cityfarmer,

May I ask, why did you choose not to invest in Singpost?

Thank You,

They planning to use Singpost to expand oversea? to make Singpost to be like DHL?


www.valueinvestasia.com

My guess is you are new to SingPost. On top of SingPost's mail segment, it has logistic segment with business in the region and internationally.

Just to name few of SingPost's subsidiaries
- Quantium solution covers Australia, HK, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia etc.
- Poste Inc in USA
- Shenzhen 4PX in China

What is lacking for SingPost is e-commerce to drive the logistic segment, where Alibaba fits well.

(not vested)

[CityFarmer]

Hi Cityfarmer,

May I ask, why did you choose not to invest in Singpost?

Thank You,

I was a shareholder before. The sell decision was due to greater value potential in other stocks. Of course, I am referring to SingPost w/o Alibaba. Now it is a totally different story...

(not vested)

[LLI]

Thanks for the explanation.
yes. i am new to Singpost. still learning abt the business


www.valueinvestasia.com

[greengiraffe]

I m vested in Sing Post and still holds a cert to remind me of my mistake to divest a sizable position many years ago.

While Sing Post has done well to survive and transform, operationally I continued to think that while share price has done well, fundamentally it has become overvalued on the following counts:

i) yield compression resulting from abundance of investible funds looking for big cap stocks with historically stable earnings and dividend yield;
ii) latest hype associated with Alibaba.

Sing Post like other global postal services have to transform in order to survive the structural changes facing their traditional mail business.

From a top down perspective, global economic growth remains very slow due to excess debt burdens of developed world governments.

Hence, we can be assured that overall growth in business will remain retarded. Under such low growth environment, retailing has also taken a different form with consumers trying to pinch and save money from their consumption - they go to traditional shops to view what they want to buy and do e-shopping for savings - hence generating business for e-platforms that will provide the best savings.

As a result of the shift in consumer habits, service providers are now provided a new avenue for "growth". However, given that e-commerce thrives on savings, volume will then make up for thin margins. There is no doubt that giants like Amazon, Ebay, Tencent and Alibaba are profitable and provide consumers with savings but their valuations or over-valuation is the main concern for many investors - ie the hype associated with these giant darlings due to abundance of global liquidity. The cold comfort in these stocks are that these giants are profitable and cash generating - its the valuation.

Back tracking to Sing Post refreshed my memories of it preying a stake in former Darling ACCS (now renamed MDR). The main rationale back then was to leverage on ACCS' e-fulfilment. Luckily they uncovered a scam surrounding ACCS and pulled the deal. That of course led to the downfall of ACCS and the jail of former poster boy of ACCS:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5bce3060-a182-...511c8.html

This time round, fortunes are smiling on SingPost as high flying darling is taking a stake in Sing Post - lighting a rocket underneath a traditional business that is transforming in order to survive.

The above is my view -basically everything has a price.

In fact, I am using this deal as a precursor to the bubbly phase that the stock market is transitioning to. Many buddies have been enjoying their value hunt. In fact from my observations, it has been a case of digging deeper and deeper into the pile in search of value. Otherwise it would be a concept like Alibaba-Sing Post that is stretching many investors' imagination in order to convince many to pay higher valuations for a story that is still evolving.

I reiterate my views of 3 sharp bears and 7 grinding bulls and maintain that the recent series of events both locally and globally are indicating signs of the penultimate phase of bull run - money is getting easier to make if you like it or not, supported by increasing M&A and emergence of new concepts driving imagination and lifting risk appetites of investors.

Caveat Emptor
Enjoy the Penultimate Bull
Odd Lot Vested
GG