Amara Holdings

[Boon]

AMARA GROUP’S FIRST HOTEL IN THAILAND
- Amara Bangkok celebrates soft opening with attractive promotional rates from Baht 2558 until April 30, 2015

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Amara_Gr...eID=341301

(not vested)

[johnnydash]

It seems like it will run up sooner rather then later.

because of delays on a number of occasions for their projects in bangkok and shanghai, the market seems to have despaired and discounted completely these two projects. with the bangkok one completed i think the market can no longer ignore the fact that growth is well underway, one project is done, the other one is likely to be in progress, Amara shanghai slated to open end of this year.


what kind of growth? I have done my calculations based on estimated operating profit, and i think as boon has pointed out earlier too, the number of rooms/keys and office and retail space almost doubles. so very very substantial growth within less than a year. bangkok's hotel rate is lower than singapore, but shanghai's rate, hotel and even rental and office is lower but not that far off.

AMARA GROUP’S FIRST HOTEL IN THAILAND
- Amara Bangkok celebrates soft opening with attractive promotional rates from Baht 2558 until April 30, 2015

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Amara_Gr...eID=341301

(not vested)

[babyblue]

lots of buying interest this past few days. after opening of bangkok hotel. price has broken resistance with good volume and now trades at 54 cents, signalling a high probability of breakout. think there is lots of room to go higher with the opening of shanghai hotel by year end, and near doubling of room and retail space by then

thanks johnnydash for highlighting this stock and for his analysis. and the other valuebuddies too, especially boon.

[babyblue]

I got my client's relative in Shanghai to do some snooping around and apparently at the site there is a structure more then 20 stories tall, quite big she said, near their mrt and work going on at night.

Hi Boon... what does your road side source say?Not that i don't trust her, It's always good to have another input


If it is really true then construction of Amara shanghai is in progress!
Amara has said for donkey years they will build a hotel in shanghai. Now finally they have gone ahead and done it.

[BlueKelah]

I got my client's relative in Shanghai to do some snooping around and apparently at the site there is a structure more then 20 stories tall, quite big she said, near their mrt and work going on at night.

Hi Boon... what does your road side source say?Not that i don't trust her, It's always good to have another input


If it is really true then construction of Amara shanghai is in progress!
Amara has said for donkey years they will build a hotel in shanghai. Now finally they have gone ahead and done it.

From Amara website pardon the formatting, can't copy and paste from browser had to use the source code :

Located at the junction of Jiaozhou Road and Changshou Road in Puxi, Shanghai, Amara Signature
Shanghai is a mixed-use development that will<br>
comprise a 336-room hotel, retail centre and office
building. Currently under construction, Amara
Signature Shanghai is expected to benefit from its strategic location within the city centre and capitalise
on Shanghai's renowned status as Asia's leading
business and financial centre. <br>
<br>
Through the mixed-use development, Amara
introduces refreshing extravagance and variety to
the Puxi region. Business travellers are rejuvenated
by a luxurious stay at the hotel. The retail centre,
featuring many of Singapore's popular brands in food
and beverages, entertainment and lifestyle, brings a
variety of choices to the executives working around
the area. Built to Grade A office specifications, the
office building offers a conducive environment for
business operations. Amara Signature Shanghai is
scheduled to be completed by 2015.
===============================================================
They do mention to be completed this year, so consistent with what your client's relative confirmed

[Boon]

Now, let’s look at the Property Investment (PI) business segment of Amara:

Investment Properties Portfolio:
FY2010 = 100 AM (Office+ Retail)
FY2011 = 100 AM (Office+ Retail)
FY2012 = 100 AM (Office+ Retail)
FY2013 = 100 AM (Office + Retail) + 118 Killiney Road
FY2014 = 100 AM (Office + Retail) + 118 Killiney Road

SGD (million)

Fair Value Gain or Loss / Carrying Value (CV)
FY2010 = +5.000 / 190
FY2011 = + 25.361 / 214
FY2012 = + 11.321 / 261
FY2013 = + 11.524 / 279
FY2014 = + 18.997 / 299

Gross Rental Income / direct operating expenses / difference = NOI / Carrying Value (CV) / Yield = Implied Cap-Rate
FY2010 = 8.590 / 2.904 / 5.686 / 190 / 3.0%
FY2011 = 4.754 / 2.792 / 1.962 / 214 / 0.9%
FY2012 = 4.134 / 3.393 / 0.741 / 261 / 0.3%
FY2013 = 13.840 / 5.617 / 8.223 / 279 / 2.9%
FY2014 = ????? / ????? / ???? / 299 / ?????

Comments:
1) Investment properties are properties held for long-term rental yield and are measured initially at cost and subsequently carried at fair value determined annually by independent professional valuers - gains or losses arising from changes in the fair values of investment properties are included in profit or loss in the year in which they arise.
2) From 4Q2014 results, segment revenue from the Property Investment and Development amounts to SGD 19.979 million – breakdown would only be available in AR2014 which is not out yet – this division revenue contains rental income from investment properties + revenue from sales of development properties.
3) Assuming the entire 19.979 million to be gross rental income from investment properties
Assume direct operating expenses in 2014 to be same as in 2013
 NOI (2014) = 19.979 – 5.617 =14.362
 Yield or implied cap rate (2014) = 14.362 / 299 = 4.8% (maximum possible highest rate, unless expenses in 2014 is lower than 2013.
4) If the market cap rate is 6%, current CV is overvalued – unless prospects of future rental growth remain bright
5) If rental income in 2014 has stabilized – valuation and “fair value gain” in 2014 seem to be stretched and running ahead of rental growth………………………………….

(not vested)

Updated data from AR2014:

Gross Rental Income / direct operating expenses / difference = NOI / Carrying Value (CV) / Yield = Implied Cap-Rate
FY2010 = 8.590 / 2.904 / 5.686 / 190 / 3.0%
FY2011 = 4.754 / 2.792 / 1.962 / 214 / 0.9%
FY2012 = 4.134 / 3.393 / 0.741 / 261 / 0.3%
FY2013 = 13.840 / 5.617 / 8.223 / 279 / 2.9%
FY2014 = 16.917/ 5.870 / 11.047/ 299 / 3.7%

[learner88]

(With the help of friends, friends of friends, friends of friends of friends and Google)

For those who are interested:

The work order for Amara's site in Shanghai:
[Image: 1GC82CE.png]

Where is Changshou x Jiaozhou? - Local geography
[Image: 6cqjzSv.png]

Where is Changshou x Jiaozhou? - in the bigger scheme of things?
[Image: 1rAHWuS.png]

Location wise: It is probably not Grade A office quality because of its non-super prime location. It is almost like a Metropolis or maybe a Mapletree Business City equivalent in terms of location. It's off the city/CBD fringes but has the benefit of close proximity to the subway (albeit on a not so major subway line).

(More to come later if there are readers who are interested and when I have the time to go through all the photos taken to show the stage of completion of the construction.)

Artist's impression of the whole project from the latest AR:
[Image: s2iffTM.png]

Artist's impression (onsite) - 1
[Image: jHFCpfu.png]

Artist's impression (onsite) - 2
[Image: sioK4Kl.png]

Artist's impression (onsite) - 3
[Image: Dv4JNvr.png]

[krowten]

Did anyone here attend the AGM on 29 April? If so, can you kindly share if there is anything interesting?

Any mention about hospitality reit, and the MOU with Youth Force Hotel to develop and operate a hotel located in Dagon Township, Yangon, Myanmar?

I was not able to attend due to work.

[butcher]

wow. beautiful hotels. but unsure about the business prospects on china hospitality sector.
I was in a china second tier city last year near hongkong, think is Dongguan and noticed lots of the hotels there were empty!

[Boon]

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Amara_1Q...eID=349763

1Q2015 results,

As usual, poor disclosure standards, no breakdown of segmental results are given...........making analysing the results difficult............

On its Shanghai project, no disclosure of GFA and project cost ...............

Wondering if the Management of Amara would ever improve its standard of disclosure to its shareholders...........................

(not vested)