Singapore Airlines

[Nick]

Dear Penguin and Ichiran,

Thanks for sharing your views on this company.

I was attracted by its strong cash-flow, extremely clean balance sheet and decent dividends. But as you guys rightfully pointed out - the industry stinks. A good company in a poor industry may not translate to a good investment.

Cheers

[mikh]

I think there are some business factors going for SIA.
1. Air Cargo will continue to be good business. From the Edge, its portion of operating profit could be in the region of ~25% of the group.
2. While passenger airlines see lots of competition, more and more people will fly. I won't call it a bad or sunset industry. Of course, with more competition, only the fittest survive - those with the best operations, management expertise, greatest cash hoard (?). Many airlines have failed in the last 2 decades. Some oldies disappeared, others have come and gone. Should this speak well of the survivors, or do we expect that they will suffer the same fate anytime soon? and in a rising industry?
3. As a passenger carrier, SIA is positioned at the top end - furthest from the budget airlines and therefore least to be susceptible.
4. SIA also has a foothold in the budget landscape via Tiger.

my 0.2 cents on the +ves

(passing interest in the industry, not vested or looking to invest)

[Nick]

4 sets of analyst reports regarding its latest 3Q results. All of them seems pretty bullish about its prospects going forward and its plans of deploying its substantial cash hoard.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese...y_DBSV.pdf [DBSV]

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/SIA-3101111.pdf [CIMB]

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/ssu31012011ke.pdf [Kim Eng]

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/31_J...atters.pdf [DMG]

(Not Vested)

[Musicwhiz]

It's tough to find a bearish analyst!

[Nick]

It's tough to find a bearish analyst!

Naw...Longcheer shareholders will disagree hehe !

I wonder will the market speculate SIA doing a return of capital in Q4 ? It has over $4.30 net cash per share...

[Nick]

Another 2 set of analyst report about SIA latest analyst briefing.

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/02_F...atters.pdf [DMG]

http://www.remisiers.org/cms_images/rese...buy_PS.pdf [Phillips]

Questions has been revolving primarily about the hike in fuel prices, its plans for utilizing its massive cash hoard and competition from China and Mideast airliners.

On another note, SIA resumed its share buy backs with 91,000 shares repurchased yesterday at $14.64.

(Not Vested but Interested)

[Nick]

SIA A380 develops smoke, signs of burned wiring
05:56 AM Feb 05, 2011

http://www.todayonline.com/Singapore/Sin...ned-wiring

[mikh]

SIA is going to promote the Singapore Girl again reinstating a position it had deviated from in recent years (decade?).

To me, SIA's brand value is no longer the same as before. In the past, it offered superior services to the top flyers embodied by the strong Singapore Girl image and service standards that other airlines seek to follow. However, this service standard is no longer as strong a differentiating factor as before. While one used to hear the good stuff, gripes have come to the forefront - anectodal observations. It's position as the market leader is clearly being challenged by the cash rich Middle East airlines. They spend lots of money on marketing and invested a lot of efforts burnishing their product. Can anyone remember the brand of the last airline advertisement on Singapore TV? Or the brand advertised on BPL football? Or on F1? Where's SIA? Too well-known to compete? Perhaps SIA may still be the one best at delivering the goods based on industry surverys but that's not the end-all, if passengers don't know you.

The once iconic Singapore Girl is now represented by many nationalities. It might even be opined that the real Singaporean girl would in any case no longer be well represented by SIA's Singapore Girl or vice versa! IMO, the latest approach to re-hash the Singapore Girl will not do enough for SIA. It is an out-dated concept. They need to differentiate themselves more and find a new message. If not, it willl have trouble defending its seats.

[arthur]

Emirates Airlines service is better.
Heck even the Scandinavian Airlines' aunties have better services as compared to the atas Singapore Girl.
I feel so much at home with them than our own local airlines.

Why?

[Nick]

Can SIA afford a generous dividend?
Business Times - 07 Feb 2011

Hock Lock Siew
Can SIA afford a generous dividend?

By VEN SREENIVASAN

Article: http://kfc1973-stock.blogspot.com/2011/0...idend.html

SIA share price continues its downtrend to close at $15.54. The Group has over $4.20 net cash per share.

(Not Vested)