The Hour Glass

[WolfT]

Gone are the days where a Director(civil servant) walk into a shop and buy 10 rolexes at once for 'gifts'...

[dydx]

Rolex has put up a quarter-page colour ad on the front-page of today's (12Jul13) ST just for the Oyster Perpetual Lady-Datejust model, and 10 exclusive retailers with a total 21 retail outlets were also listed on the ad.

Of the 21 retail outlets listed, 7 come under THG. So can we quite safely say THG is able to command about 33% of the Rolexes sold in Singapore?

Strangely, Sincere Watch is not listed as an exclusive retailer! It got kicked out by Rolex?

[valuehunter]

Strangely, Sincere Watch is not listed as an exclusive retailer! It got kicked out by Rolex?

Yes, as far as i know Rolex and Patek have notified last year that Sincere will not be their retailer.

[EnSabahNur]

Cost more than a HDB flat!

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/world-s-m...yjgBA.html

[pacyfiq]

Any news from yesterday meeting or infos?

[crabcrab]

Swiss watchmaking in June 2013
Fall comparable to the May figure

In June, figures for watch industry exports were close to those for May, despite a distinctly more unfavourable base effect. In value terms, they were worth 1.9 billion francs, down 3.1% by comparison with June 2012. This reduction is explained in part by the fact that there was one working day less in the month than in 2012. For the first half as a whole, watch industry exports reported near-zero growth (+0.8% to 10.2 billion francs).

The decline in value is primarily attributable to gold watches which reported a double digit fall. At the other extreme, steel and bimetal timepieces achieved significant growth. The total number of timepieces exported was influenced by the categories of other materials and other metals which were distinctly lower. Steel watches on the other hand remained stable by comparison with June 2012.

The price segments repeated the trend observed in May. Only watches priced between 200 and 500 francs (export price) achieved growth in the order of 20%. Below 200 francs, levels fell significantly (-14.8% in volume terms). The results for timepieces priced at over 500 francs deteriorated slightly (-3.4% in value).

Most of the main markets for the Swiss watchmaking industry reported a fall in June. Hong Kong posted the same sharp downturn as in May. The United States confirmed their slowdown with a negative month on month trend. After falling for six months, China benefited from a favourable base effect to show a higher result. The downward trend continued in France. Interrupting a long positive series, Germany and Italy likewise experienced a fall. Europe as a whole reported its first fall (-0.8%) in two years.

Source: FHS

[greengiraffe]

I just had a read on THG AR. Always impressed with the AR as it provides invaluable insights on the rich in particular China.

In fact, THG could be a proxy for China's "gifting" activities.

Vested
Odd Lots
GG

FY13 (ended 31Mar13) AR is out and certainly worth a serious read.....
http://www.thehourglass.com/pdf/THG%20An...ne2013.pdf

I now look forward to the $0.055/share Final cash dividend, which should be paid early Aug.

[greengiraffe]

Maybank KE, unrated writeup:

The Hour Glass
Clockwork Ticking Down As Demand Slows
Luxury watch retailer and a sweetener on the side. We recently met
the management of The Hour Glass for an insight into the company and
the watch industry. Over the past 34 years, Hour Glass has cemented
itself as a luxury watch retailer in Singapore and has been growing its
presence in Asia. It also secured the main franchise of Ladurée in SE
Asia, a French luxury bakery renowned for its macaroons.
Rising headwinds, rising costs in core market. The management
stated rising business costs in Singapore in recent times have
negatively affected one of its core customers, namely, SME owners. It
views Singapore’s consumer sentiment as the weakest among the
ASEAN countries. In the region, the luxury sector is facing increasing
challenges. For example, China’s efforts to weed out official corruption
has resulted in a drop in Swiss watch export levels to Asia (Singapore’s
-2.6%, Hong Kong’s -11.1% and China’s -18.7% in 1H13.)
Potential entry of new competitor. There is also talk of new
competitors entering Singapore, eg, Emperor Watches & Jewellery. But
we think newcomers would find it difficult to take market share with
Hour Glass already firmly entrenched in prime retail spaces on Orchard
Road. Management pointed out that once the company secures a retail
space, it is usually there for good.
Exploring untapped markets to mitigate slowdown at home. To
break into Thailand’s watch retailing industry, Hour Glass teamed up
with Blue River Corporation, a local luxury jewellery manufacturer, in
2008 and opened three stores in Bangkok. Its foray into Phuket last
year turned out to be a positive surprise as the store became a popular
tourist destination, attracting a minimum of 1,500 visitors a day during
the low season and as many as 4,000 visitors during the high season.
Valuation on high side. In the short term, Hour Glass has to contend
with weak consumer sentiment in Singapore. It recently cut its dividend
payout, bringing its yield of 3.1% in line with peers. Valuation appears
on the high side at 7.8x hist. P/E vs. its mean of 6.3x. But its resilient
balance sheet (net cash position of SGD38.3m, five-year ROE average
of 15%) still makes the stock attractive for the long haul.

[AlphaQuant]

i thought the chairman's address in the AR was excellent - prob one of the few ones who highlight the challenges they are facing; most other companies just paint rosy pictures and ignore the bad bits.

[dydx]

Received the fat $0.055/share Final dividend on 7Aug13 which comes in handy for some shopping over this super-long weekend. Also just reviewed the 1Q results announcement (first released on 6Aug13).....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/THGL_1Q_...eID=251002
1Q's Revenue up smartly 14% YoY to $154.67m is a clear indication that THG is competitive and, where necessary, can push sales to protect/increase market shares and/or to reduce inventory, if market conditions warrant doing so. I guess the drop in GP Margin in 1Q to a still very respectable 21.6% (vs. 23.86% for full-year FY13 ended 31Mar13) - hopefully a temporary thing! - is reflective of such moves by the THG management. B/S as at 30Jun13 remained rock-solid.

Notwithstanding the weakened market conditions, I guess it is still a reasonable expectation for THG's watch business - backed by a well-established, diversified retail and distribution base covering the all gate-way cities in Asia (ex-PRC) and the necessary infrastructure - to do well in this FY14 (ending 31Mar14) and deliver a full-year EPS in excess of $0.20, just like what was achieved in last 2 FYs (FY13: $0.2249; FY12: $0.2333). Of course, we must not forget that THG's business volume and profits are usually much higher in 3Q and 4Q because of the traditional Christmas/New Year shopping, as well as the shopping after the year-end bonus or during the Chinese New Year season in some markets (Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, etc.).