04-11-2012, 10:20 AM (This post was last modified: 04-11-2012, 10:24 AM by dydx.)
YTD (i.e. from 30Dec11's closing till 2Nov12's closing), THG's last done share price at $1.80 has advanced 68.2% from $1.07 (30Dec11's closing), vs. STI's 15.9% advance..... http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=E5P.S...=undefined;
before counting the $0.06/share Final dividend for FY12 (ended 31Mar12) paid on 8Aug12.
This is indeed very impressive! THG is another example of how a high-quality business/company will shine over time.
(04-11-2012, 10:20 AM)dydx Wrote: YTD (i.e. from 30Dec11's closing till 2Nov12's closing), THG's last done share price at $1.80 has advanced 68.2% from $1.07 (30Dec11's closing), vs. STI's 15.9% advance..... http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=E5P.S...=undefined;
before counting the $0.06/share Final dividend for FY12 (ended 31Mar12) paid on 8Aug12.
This is indeed very impressive! THG is another example of how a high-quality business/company will shine over time.
I was still hoping for a chance to accumulate more of it at slightly less than 1x PB a while ago, but it seemed like CIMB spoilt my plan....
Bearing in mind the generally weakened customer/tourist spending sentiment, I consider the 2Q/1H results so far not bad at all! Being optimistic - and bearing in mind we have a very competent management team in THG - I am looking forward towards a seasonally better 2H (ending 31Mar13), which will have the additional support from X'mas/New Year shopping by locals and tourists alike, as well as the year-end bonus and CNY shopping by locals that follows.
29-11-2012, 01:13 AM (This post was last modified: 29-11-2012, 01:14 AM by Boon.)
The October 2012 figures for Swiss Watch World Distribution are out:
Export to Singapore for October was CHF 96.2 million,
Which was down (-2.8%) compared to October 2011 figure of CHF 99 million.
But it was up (+15.6%) compared to CHF 83.2 million in the previous month of September 2012.
Cumulative export to Singapore from Jan to Oct 2012 was CHF 907.1 million, up (+0.5%) compared to the same period last year – Jan to Oct 2011 – of CHF 902.6 million.
Would the FY2012 export figure to Singapore surpass that of FY2011 of CHF 1,146.4 million when the November and December figures are available? It remains to be seen.
(Vested)
Research, research and research - Please do your own due diligence (DYODD) before you invest - Any reliance on my analysis is SOLELY at your own risk.
While it is useful to track the on-going evolution of the volume of Swiss watch exports to Singapore, we should bear in mind that the statistics mainly measure the aggregate monetary value, but not the actual number of timepieces transacted, which I feel is perhaps a more reliable measurement or indicator of the underlying demand for branded Swiss timepieces from consumer end-buyers.
Apart from industry statistics, I simply believe it remains a valid assumption that among those with the necessary disposable income, there are many people who desire to own at least one nice branded Swiss mechanical timepiece in their lifetime.
CIMB released a note after meeting the management and in it it was mentioned that "This slowing demand is the reason behind the increase in inventory.Inventory turns in 1H12 exceeded 180 days." which answer our qns about their inventories.
From the data I have compiled, we can see that there has been a steady rise from Jan 2012 to July 2012. After that there has been a sharp drop in August before it starts to rise again. Retail sales data from the Singapore side has been disappointing so far and only Japan and Hong Kong side are showing double digit growth though they only account for 3 stores and 14% of total sales.
Personally, I am prepared to ride it out with them as my target holding period is 3 years. This year will not be spectacular as previously due to downturn coupled with their current expansion plan this year.
(29-11-2012, 08:01 AM)dydx Wrote: While it is useful to track the on-going evolution of the volume of Swiss watch exports to Singapore, we should bear in mind that the statistics mainly measure the aggregate monetary value, but not the actual number of timepieces transacted, which I feel is perhaps a more reliable measurement or indicator of the underlying demand for branded Swiss timepieces from consumer end-buyers.
Apart from industry statistics, I simply believe it remains a valid assumption that among those with the necessary disposable income, there are many people who desire to own at least one nice branded Swiss mechanical timepiece in their lifetime.
Sadly i dont fall into this category, a beautiful watch just doesnt give me the urge to own it. The same goes for paintings and branded goods. I have difficulty understand consumer mindset so i dont invest in the hourglass. Perhaps when i am rich enough, my thinking will change
(29-11-2012, 08:01 AM)dydx Wrote: While it is useful to track the on-going evolution of the volume of Swiss watch exports to Singapore, we should bear in mind that the statistics mainly measure the aggregate monetary value, but not the actual number of timepieces transacted, which I feel is perhaps a more reliable measurement or indicator of the underlying demand for branded Swiss timepieces from consumer end-buyers.
Apart from industry statistics, I simply believe it remains a valid assumption that among those with the necessary disposable income, there are many people who desire to own at least one nice branded Swiss mechanical timepiece in their lifetime.
Sadly i dont fall into this category, a beautiful watch just doesnt give me the urge to own it. The same goes for paintings and branded goods. I have difficulty understand consumer mindset so i dont invest in the hourglass. Perhaps when i am rich enough, my thinking will change
I share the same view. I have no doubt Hour Glass is a good company. Since i do not understand watches, and watch collectors/consumers's mindset, I will rather not to invest in it.
What has always intrigued me about luxury watches is the P/E they are trading at.
HrGlass is trading at 6.7x TTM P/E, while Cortina is at 7.4x.
Over at HK, Sincere is at 7x while Oriental is at 10.7x.
Probably Oriental has something which warrants the premium but it seem that the average is around 6 to 7x. I supposed the discount is largely due to the luxury factor in holding more inventory and probably due to illiquidity issue in their trading.
How much will you pay? 10x? 12x? I think it matters because luxury consumption is after all cyclical as well.
Someone/parties seem to be keen on selling off the THG shares today and last week as well. Wonder what's the motivation of doing so? Cold feet or urgent need for cash?
Homepage
PR Newswire
